Strictly Come Dancing 2013

[ripple11]

We've got Natalie e/w top 3....is the final (public vote) top 3 ?

[Doobs]

Final is top 4.  She is obviously safe if Patrick makes the final.

Meant to post this earlier, James Jordan taking the result well.

https://twitter.com/The_JamesJordan


#fixathon made me smile.

Probably not the best application for the next series.

[TightEnd]

We've got Natalie e/w top 3....is the final (public vote) top 3 ?

final 4

5 left, one leaves this weekend

next weekend 4th to 1st decided

Natalie is the best dancer but won't win

Susanna 9/2 not laid off yet here

[Tal]

Tal, you can get 9/2 Abbey on Betfair, best you can get on Susanna is 4/1 outside youwin.  If you are backing Abbey when they are all the same pricem you should surely back her when biggest of the 4?

Been a long day. Sorry.

These markets seem to change so dramatically. It's silly. We know what their strengths and weaknesses are and we have a good idea of popularity. One bad dance doesn't change their chances of winning; just their chances of going out next (I know that's relevant but you know what I mean).

It's been fun this year bringing in the odds side to where my interest/love lies. I make a nice profit if Abbey or Susanna win and I really believe they are the two most likely to win from this point. Only by a Cuban heel, mind.

But I don't have the market knowledge of someone like Doobs and I don't think the others are out of it (Patrick is big outsider, but stranger things have happened). Nat is the most talented and, in Sophie's favour, Brendan has been great in the show these last few weeks.

Nat and Sophie can only win if their partners take a more pragmatic line in their choreography, IMO. Of the two, Sophie's Kevin is more likely. Nat should get top three. It would be pretty criminal if she didn't get there.

[Doobs]

There is nothing wrong with a wildly swinging market Tal.  If the prices were set and didn't change much, there wouldn't be half as many opportunities to make money as there has been this series. 

It is a great gambling event, you get the pure kind of gambling where it is simply your view vs someone else's, then you can just make money due to the sloth like behaviour of some bookmakers.   You don't often get to lay at 7/2 on the exchange and back at 9/2 with a bookmaker after the exchange has moved in horse racing.  But even without seeing the exchange price, it seemed pretty clear that 5/1 with Ladbrokes was too big for Susanna after she topped* the poll (* or was maybe 2nd).  There should always be a price you'd back each of them (though maybe it would have to be enormous on Patrick), and I'd say all the top 4 have looked a bit too big at times.

I think Patrick has no hope at all.  Barring maybe 1 week, he has been consistently near the bottom of every poll I have seen.  He has been bottom 2 before, and he clearly got the lowest public vote this week.  I'd say that must be fairly unusual for somebody who was top of the judges marking.   Even if the judges are mark him fairly in the final, I expect a significant part of the voting public are still going to think it is a fix.    The prices on him to go first in the final are going to be interesting if the judges can drag him there.  I am not sure they can all be too short to put me off.

I don't think I'd be surprised if any of the girls won.  I still think this was pivotal

[Doobs]

Susanna favourite on Betfair right now. 

Sophie 3.75
Nat 3.7
Susanna 3.6
Abbey 5.3
Patfix 50

Sophie must be the bet right now?  I think I am going to have to work out my net position tomorrow.  There is a good chance Sophie isn't my biggest winner.

[AndrewT]

Telling this week that Natalie got 40 and yet, as Brucie pointed out, no standing ovation from the audience.

[TightEnd]

I don't think she can win in a 100% public vote

the moment craig gave sophie an 8, she got another 1m phone votes


natalie top 3 but susanna is the most popular, by far

[Doobs]

I don't think she can win in a 100% public vote

the moment craig gave sophie an 8, she got another 1m phone votes


natalie top 3 but susanna is the most popular, by far

How can you be sure she is the most popular, by far?  I can see she won last week's vote, and there was the Star story, but the Star story was only that she won last week's vote.  On the polls I have been watching, I'd say Sophie is the most popular.  Admittedly those polls could be wrong, and are dominated by die hards, but they don't seem that consistent with Susanna having a huge lead.  Also Sophie's week 2 dance has had most hits of all the dances on youtube by far.

Think this week could be interesting.  That extra point is probably enough to save Sophie from the bottom 2.  Pat looks a cert, but I'd make Nat the favourite to join him.  I think The Susanna and Sophie votes mean they could jump Abbey and Nat.  This is despite the fact Nat was clearly best tonight.

On the judging, Sophie Paso > Sophie American Smooth.  I also smiled a bit when Craig mentioned Susanna's facial expressions.  Abbey is finishing very strongly, but still not sure she can really win.

My book is Sophie big winner, Nat decent winner, Abbey and Susanna tiny losers.  Pat would be a small catastrophe, but can't see the judges saving him vs Nat or Abbey. 
   

[TightEnd]

Susanna 11/10!

Going to have to close the 9/2 position after the show tonight


Think I might have to switch to Abbey at 4/1. Going to be very close but feel thats a price. Was very impressed with that American Smooth last night

[taximan007]

Natalie has been the winner of this series since the very first show, but then it's a public vote show so she probably won't!!

[neeko]

Natalie has been the winner of this series since the very first show, but then it's a public vote show so she probably won't!!

She just looks so grumpy - clearly knows she is the best but has no chance of winning.

[Doobs]

Digital Spy Poll currently.  Susanna frequently scores poorly there, but Abbey is definitely polling better over time.

Semi Final: Who was your favourite couple?

View Poll Results: Who was your favourite couple?
Abbey & Aljaz      182   33.21%
Natalie & Artem      129   23.54%
Patrick & Anya      18   3.28%
Sophie & Brendan   166   30.29%
Susanna & Kevin      53   9.67%

Semi Final: Who was your LEAST favourite couple?

Abbey & Aljaz      42   9.15%
Natalie & Artem      76   16.56%
Patrick & Anya      125   27.23%
Sophie & Brendan   40   8.71%
Susanna & Kevin      176   38.34%

Betfair odds (mid)
Susanna 2.03
Abbey 4.2
Sophie 5.55
Natalie 10.5

[Ironside]

Digital Spy Poll currently.  Susanna frequently scores poorly there, but Abbey is definitely polling better over time.

Semi Final: Who was your favourite couple?

View Poll Results: Who was your favourite couple?
Abbey & Aljaz      182   33.21%
Natalie & Artem      129   23.54%
Patrick & Anya      18   3.28%
Sophie & Brendan   166   30.29%
Susanna & Kevin      53   9.67%

Semi Final: Who was your LEAST favourite couple?

Abbey & Aljaz      42   9.15%
Natalie & Artem      76   16.56%
Patrick & Anya      125   27.23%
Sophie & Brendan   40   8.71%
Susanna & Kevin      176   38.34%

Betfair odds (mid)
Susanna 2.03
Abbey 4.2
Sophie 5.55
Natalie 10.5

poll has too be totally wrong for nat too end up in the dance off she had too finish last in the voting or 2nd last behind patrick

patrick last week also had too have finished last with the public too finish in the dance off with ashley

and basically susanna had too win public vote both times for patrick to finish in bottom 2 last week and nat too finish in bottom 2 this week
as they were leading after the judges votes

[Tal]

I posted a brief foreword to this weekend's main event on the Tips for Tikay thread earlier today:



SCD followers will know everyone dances once before the first couple leaves. That dance is the judges' choice.

Abbey will be doing a Waltz (week 1 - scores 8-8-8-8: 32)
Natalie will be doing a Cha Cha (week 1 - 8-8-8-7: 31)
Sophie will be doing a Viennese Waltz (week 10 - 9-9-9-9: 36)
Susanna will be doing a Quickstep (week 10 - 7-8-9-9: 33)

So that's three ballroom dances and one latin. Natalie struggled with her hips in that dance and it is quite a quick cha-cha. I'd argue there is a definite advantage to Sophie and Susanna in having dances they have only recently done. Must save a bit of time on the training this week! Susanna got into a bit of a mess a couple of times and would be eager to put those footwork errors right. Sophie had a shoulder issue in hold (as she tensed up, her left shoulder came up a little and she lost her neckline). That won't be an issue this time. Brendan will make sure of it.

I think there's an argument that the one to go is most likely to be Natalie or Abbey, because the Waltz lovers might prefer Sophie's Viennese, which I can see getting 38+. Susanna's dance, if she nails it, will be a knockout job, but that's a big if. The public will carry her through to the last three anyway.

In the last three, we have the showdance, where anything goes (not necessarily in a Cole Porter way). They then get to choose their own favourite and curiously Abbey hadn't chosen her salsa from the other night that got 40. She's doing a quickstep instead, so two ballroom dances. Natalie will do the American Smooth and the other two are more predictable: Sophie's Charleston and Susanna's Paso.

Were I a betting man, Susanna - Sophie - Abbey - Natalie would be my order.