Strictly Come Dancing 2013

[Tal]

No one has Julian MacDonald priced up so it looks like he has gone.

I really am annoyed that the bookies do that.

I think it is bad for bookies to take bets on non runners.  I assume Betfair suspend as several of their users have less scruples than the average bookie?

I concur.

All bookies should suspend between 9pm Saturday and 9pm Sunday.

[Doobs]

Do we want to make this a NO SPOILER thread, and anything is fair game on TfT?

[The Camel]

I have never watched a second of this before tonight but I am staying overnight at my mother's who is a big fan (target audience ftw)

Saw 3 dancers, came in half way through Abby Clancy and she was so good I honestly didn't know who the pro and who was the C list celeb until they gave the names at the end.

This must be a good thing for her chances, right?



PS I am not planning on watching another 8 minutes of this in my lifetime.

[Tal]

She did very well and she makes a great pairing with Aljaž. She is undoubtedly a contender. The only question is whether she can improve much more than the level she is at right now. To win, she will need to be better than she is. I'd like to see her do well.

The point you make about not knowing who the pro is is a really interesting one. I think some pros are better at 'toning down' how they perform so as not to show up their celeb partner. That's quite a skill but someone like Ola is brilliant at it and Aljaž is doing that well with Abbey. What you want to happen is exactly what you said - the audience think the celeb is dancing like a pro, when part of it is the pro not showing the celeb up.

You get moments where the celeb dances like a pro and Natalie (who TFT is on) definitely has more of those than most.

[Tal]

And you will definitely watch it again. You'll be giving it the "Aye Aye"s in no time

[taximan007]

Natalie has been the winner of this series since the very first show, but then it's a public vote show so she probably won't!!

[Doobs]

Ben Cohen, Jive. 

Can't see how standing still while Kristina dances in front of him works here.  8/1 next elimination with Paddy Power is the only price on offer and they don't lay me much.

Now we can discuss last week, Dave and Mark must have been pretty popular.  I was beginning to think I had missed the boat with Abbey, but she must have been bottom of the popularity list.  Not sure how we can get Dave in the bottom 2, but all these ties don't help.

Does all this make Ben the elimination value? 

[The Camel]

Is this billed as a dancing competition or a popularity competition?

Doesn't the fact Abbey (who was undeniably excellent) made the bottom two make the whole programme pointless?

[TightEnd]

Is this billed as a dancing competition or a popularity competition?

Doesn't the fact Abbey (who was undeniably excellent) made the bottom two make the whole programme pointless?

Its a bit of both

the judges mark on dancing

the public mainly on popularity

each week the votes of the two segments are amalgamated, so you get it voted for on ability and entertainment


thus people win it (chris hollins) who aren't the best dancer

people stay in for ages because of entertainment value (john sargent, anne widdecombe, dave myers in this season)


the Psephology of the voting on SCD is quite complex, and that's part of the fascination.

[tikay]

Is this billed as a dancing competition or a popularity competition?

Doesn't the fact Abbey (who was undeniably excellent) made the bottom two make the whole programme pointless?

Its a bit of both

the judges mark on dancing

the public mainly on popularity

each week the votes of the two segments are amalgamated, so you get it voted for on ability and entertainment


thus people win it (chris hollins) who aren't the best dancer

people stay in for ages because of entertainment value (john sargent, anne widdecombe, dave myers in this season)


the Psephology of the voting on SCD is quite complex, and that's part of the fascination.

"fascination" you say?

Most interesting application of that adjective I've seen in a goodly while.

[AndrewT]

Is there any evidence of a 'justice bounce' after a week like this, where next week Abbey picks up extra votes from people who think 'it wasn't fair she was in the dance-off last week'?

[TightEnd]

Is there any evidence of a 'justice bounce' after a week like this, where next week Abbey picks up extra votes from people who think 'it wasn't fair she was in the dance-off last week'?

Not especially

We need to think about demographics

who is the core voter

female 25-60

Abby doesn't appeal to this voter. She is a good dancer but has no personality, not really got a platform to push herself (in a soap, on breakfast tv etc) and isn't with a known professional

[Doobs]

Is there any evidence of a 'justice bounce' after a week like this, where next week Abbey picks up extra votes from people who think 'it wasn't fair she was in the dance-off last week'?

She isn't ever getting thrown out next week votes or not.  I was previously worried she could win and I haven't backed her.  I just don't think she can win now, as she must have scored lower than the likes of Patrick and Fiona who we know aren't very popular.  I think that must put her on only 2 or 3% of the vote.

At some stage, you'd expect an anti Nat pro dancer backlash, but it is hard to see anyone else that can win other than Sophie now.  So I think I must have a near lock on the win result.

If Dave got 10% of the vote (I am guessing he was at least 4th) on what looked flat entertainment wise, then I am not sure he can be bottom 2 when he does something amusing.  My previous view on his (lack of) popularity must have been a bit out. 

Fiona is an obvious choice for this weeks elimination, but I have already had as much as I can on Ben.  It isn't much.

[aaron1867]

I would imagine there is a lot more females watching the show than males, so it definitely increases the chance of a decent looking male picking votes.

Ben Cohen, 30+ points last weekend, fantastic reaction from audience and most importantly the judges and there will be lots of votes from females for sure.

He isn't going next week & I know naff all about Strictly.

[Doobs]

I would imagine there is a lot more females watching the show than males, so it definitely increases the chance of a decent looking male picking votes.

Ben Cohen, 30+ points last weekend, fantastic reaction from audience and most importantly the judges and there will be lots of votes from females for sure.

He isn't going next week & I know naff all about Strictly.

Looks like this year's audience are those who like a sense of humour* in a man.  I know very little about dancing, but Ben was clearly overmarked.  I assume he can't do the topless bit with Bruno again next week. Bet365 are now 10/1 and they'll lay me a bet. 

* for clarity, I am not saying I find the hairy biker bloke funny and I have an outstanding best man bet on Ben.