Spent a good twenty minutes watching this hand (39mins in) with YOYO today as it really interested
both of us. Haxton chips in with some useful insights in the commentary too.
Using Equilab we finally decided on a range for Macphee shoving V's Cody's Button open,
and decided/settled on 13.88% 55+, A5s+, KQs, A8o+, KQo. Which gave us 40% V's this range
and this as Haxton also points out would be the minimum amount needed to call. "Sort of close but I don't think Cody can call here"
So the odds are close as Cody is getting 1.5-1 although Macphee had not been that out of line so far and with the stacksize it seems
unlikely he is at this point add into this the ICM considerations.
Now I pointed out that Cody appears to read him as not so strong when he smiles and says "Very serious"
so maybe he thought he could discount the better hands from his range. Ran this and took out AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKS, AKo, AQS.
This only changed our percentage to about 43% v's that range where we took out these hands after considering that he did not look
as comfortable as he would with any of these hands.
Would love to here peoples views on this and any floors in the thinking here.