Tomorrow is going to be pretty hectic so I thought I'd try to head off some of the obvious questions so I can focus on picking winners.
If you do decide to register for Betting Emporium for the 1st time do use the link that Tighty has provided as Joe and I have done an affiliate deal with Blonde and we'll be very happy to give a share of your fees to Blonde.
The cost of the subscription is £99.99 a week which I personally think is too cheap for the work I am doing, so I'm sorry if it's too much for you, which it may be for a lot of smaller punters, and I'm more sorry if you can't see the value, all I do know is those that have tried the service are winning.
My plan tomorrow is to wake up at 5am and start work. The less time I have to spend dealing with queries about why the tips are not there yet or I can't figure out how to click on the page the more time I'll have to study, write up the races and get my bets on and the happier I'll be. The answer to why don't you put them all up at the same time at 9am is simply "that is not how I work". I have spent some time today on the races but tomorrow I shall read everything I like to read online and in the Post, I shall narrow the horses I'm picking down and then I'll speak to a couple of pros I respect and discard the odd horse and figure out the staking plan.
I think the results we have shown prove that this method works and it would be easier if people just buy into this method and let me get on with it. I didn't think it helped during Ascot to wade through abusive notes at the end of the 1st day which we lost on although I would say fair play to the one guy who tried to explain what I should be doing and how I could turn it round who then came back at the end of the week to congratulate us on the huge profit.
I would basically say if you can't afford to lose then just don't do it, and if you can and we do lose then be assured that I'll have lost too, I wasn't trying to lose and we'll take it like men (or women) and move on.
My plan is to bet on most of the races and in some I will definitely bet three horses, sometimes four. A lot of the bets I do will be each way and you can be assured that making a decision whether to bet win or each-way is something I've thought carefully about and I would recommend you to simply bet the ones I suggest as win bets to win and those I say each-way should be bet each-way. Sometimes it will look weird when I bet a 3/1 shot each-way and then in the next race a 50/1 shot to win but I can assure you I have made that decision for a good reason.
My staking will be around 25 points a race but the stakes will vary enormously. In some races I may not bet at all or I could just find a 6 points win bet or even a 3 points win. In others I may have 10 or more points each-way on three or four horses. Obviously I will be making those decisions 100% based on how good value I consider the bet to be and I will pay no attention to how we are doing on the week at that stage. I am making all the decisions before the 1st race and so I won't be pressing just because we have had winners and I certainly won't chase. I would recommend you follow my policy.
There are 7 races a day at Goodwood and if I bet an average of 25 points a race you will bet 875 points during the week. If you think you are a £1 a point punter on that basis then I would suggest that you should not buy. £99.99 is a lot to get back betting in those amounts and although I would expect to win around 18% long-term I think you are paying too much. If you choose to ignore me and go ahead good luck to you, I'm just warning you. I would suggest that £2 a point is a more reasonable MINIMUM that I would recommend people play for.
Betting £2 a point does mean you will be laying out around £1750 and it could easily be more as I may go over the average. If you don't feel comfortable with that my main advice would be DO NOT GO AHEAD WITH THIS. We don't need your £99.99 that much and I'd rather not read about how I've lost someone more money than they thought possible or they could afford.
Rest assured that if you bet horses with an average price of around 8/1 as I often do, and even bigger prices in the big festivals like Goodwood, you will have many losers, you will have painful losing days, some losing months and possible losing years. It can be possible that you have a long-term 5 year ROI of over 25% and you lose solidly for three months while doing exactly the same thing.
I would generally say that each individual race should be no more than 3% of your total bankroll which means if you plan to play for £2 a point and bet in £50 a race then you'll need a tank of £1500. You can see though that by betting £1750 you could theoretically exceed that and go broke if we get ZERO returns which is unlikely but still possible. So many people have asked me questions about this stuff and there is no right answer. It simply depends on how risk averse you are.
I'm going to leave it to the individual to decide.
A couple of final points about getting on.
It is hard. We always try with Betting Emporium to only tip with firms who are represented in the high street if the price is just with one firm or to tip when it's there with two. It doesn't seem fair to boast of a big-priced winner if you could only get on with Winner (who obviously won't lay any bets). When I tipped Lord Windermere for the Gold Cup you could get 40/ with Victor Chandler and Stan James and I tipped the horse at 33/1 which was available with some slightly less pathetic bookmakers. It's not fair if our results are based on fake prices so we make sure they are not. I will always tell you at what price you can still be happy and whether to switch to a lower price with worse place terms when that is relevant.
It would be great if people with accounts that they know are heavily factored (you get 1% or 5% of the normal amounts that a new account would get) just don't bother using them. It simply alerts the bookmakers very cheaply and doesn't really help anyone. It would also be great if people don't immediately try and bet with Betfair at the price as this triggers the bookies robot software to cut prices.
The fact that it is so hard to get bets on these days is the answer to the most frequently asked question which is why don't you do this every week?
Finally, we have thought long and hard about our pricing. We would like to have a good number of customers as then if some people drop out after a bad week we don't have to worry too much. We also make a very small income from people opening accounts via the links on the site and it's good to have more people visiting.
The flipside to this is that the more people who subscribe to the service the more the prices come under pressure and if we carry on being as successful as we have been we will find that nobody can get on as the first few bets alert the bookies and the prices go. We are all in this together really. If people keep the information to themselves and quietly do their bets we will all make more. If people chose to share the information then it will be a bigger fight for everyone to get the prices and some people may not get on. We would ask you not to share the information and to try to bet in a way that won't cause the prices to go instantly.
In the future we may have to consider raising the pries so we have less customers and those that we have can get on. The flip side of that is the ones that don't care if we triple the price will bet bigger and it may have the same effect.
It's never easy to know what to do.
I shall have the 1st race up tomorrow by 9am at the latest and the others will follow at 30 minute intervals until noon.
Good luck to all of us.
Quality post. Your honesty, integrity and work ethic really shine through in that post.
Wish you and Joe a profitable Goodwood.
