I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair. I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price.
I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer? I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC). I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).
It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.
Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.
It has been proper crazy - the most outlying major betting market I can ever remember. I bet on Biden a few months ago and have been forced to just go in again and again as I thought the price was more and more out of line.
The price on Biden finally moved last night - 1.83 to 1.62. I guess part of the reason for the market being strong on Trump was a thought that Biden would fall apart in the debates. That obviously didn't transpire (even though I thought Biden's first 30 mins or so were very low energy and unimpressive).
As has been stated, some things are different from last time. Biden is up by 7% a month out, compared to Clinton's 3.5% last time. Also there seem to be far fewer undecided voters this time round - Trump mopped up the majority of these last time but there aren't as many this time round in an election where he's further back.
The main complication now is what happens if the election is close - Biden may be ahead but if Trump doesn't concede and it goes to the Supreme Court things get messy.
Betfair rules on this market are 'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.'
Not sure what 'projected Electoral College votes' are - projected by whom?
