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 1 
 on: Today at 12:04:36 AM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by Marky147
Haha, that's about the most concise analysis of it.

 2 
 on: September 30, 2020, 11:15:27 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by MintTrav
CNN Chief Political Correspondent Dana Bash presents her analysis of the debate.


 3 
 on: September 30, 2020, 09:42:24 PM 
Started by Tal - Last post by Ironside
steelers titans games this weekend has been postponed due to covid don't think it will be the last this season

 4 
 on: September 30, 2020, 06:34:36 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by Marky147
I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.

Me too; more for a bit of fun than anything but I booked the red market as well 

I was only trying to pay for Xmas, so nothing lifechanging... looks like the nephew and niece might get 50p pieces, instead of £50 notes Cheesy

 5 
 on: September 30, 2020, 05:59:42 PM 
Started by Karabiner - Last post by Karabiner
I've had a couple of small wagers this week:

Cheyenne Knight ew @80/1 1/4 1-5 in the LPGA Shoprite Classic.

Robbie McIntyre ew @50/1 1/5 1-7 in The Scottish Open at The Rennaisance course.

Good luck all.

 6 
 on: September 30, 2020, 05:23:54 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by dakky
I'd backed Trump, but redded out on BF after that last night, lol.

Me too; more for a bit of fun than anything but I booked the red market as well 

 7 
 on: September 30, 2020, 04:39:48 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by AndrewT
I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

It has been proper crazy - the most outlying major betting market I can ever remember. I bet on Biden a few months ago and have been forced to just go in again and again as I thought the price was more and more out of line.

The price on Biden finally moved last night - 1.83 to 1.62. I guess part of the reason for the market being strong on Trump was a thought that Biden would fall apart in the debates. That obviously didn't transpire (even though I thought Biden's first 30 mins or so were very low energy and unimpressive).

As has been stated, some things are different from last time. Biden is up by 7% a month out, compared to Clinton's 3.5% last time. Also there seem to be far fewer undecided voters this time round - Trump mopped up the majority of these last time but there aren't as many this time round in an election where he's further back.

The main complication now is what happens if the election is close - Biden may be ahead but if Trump doesn't concede and it goes to the Supreme Court things get messy.

Betfair rules on this market are 'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.'

Not sure what 'projected Electoral College votes' are - projected by whom?

 8 
 on: September 30, 2020, 04:01:46 PM 
Started by TightEnd - Last post by TightEnd
interesting read

It didn't have to be this way. Covid inflaming every joint and tissue of the body politic points to an underlying vulnerability in British* democracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/29/boris-johnson-discord-tories

 9 
 on: September 30, 2020, 04:01:08 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by TightEnd
this is a very good long read

Decades of tax information that President Trump has tried to hide from the public provides a detailed view of his business career, revealing huge losses, looming financial threats and a large, contested refund from the IRS. https://nyti.ms/30hQAWN

 10 
 on: September 30, 2020, 03:28:30 PM 
Started by MintTrav - Last post by Longy
I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

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