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Poker Hand Analysis
Fascinating hand from last night...
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Topic: Fascinating hand from last night... (Read 6902 times)
bobby1
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #15 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:07:54 PM »
Quote from: ariston on May 15, 2006, 09:42:54 PM
tourneys and cash is like comparing rugby union to rugby league- may be the same shaped ball with plenty men trying to kill each other but its completely different.
In a cash game you would probably make the raise on the flop to define your hand or try to get a free card on the turn presuming he calls then checks. In a tourney an allin raise here is only going to be called by a hand that has you beat and a small raise is only going to make the pot bigger and worth stealing. Sure if he calls with a hand that beats you you may still have outs- I say may because what if he has KTds here- you are drawing very thin for a chop. I do not like the allin semibluff on the flop here at this stage of a comp, earlier I can justify it but now we are getting towards the real money and I dont like putting my tournament life at stake betting to lose (ie he can only call you if you are screwed). By raising the turn he has also taken away the opportunity to bluff the change on the river imo as an astute player would be able to put you on that bluff (very few players have the game or the balls to reraise the turn on a flush draw)
Thanks, Im having some problems playing these kind of drawing hands, I read about and see so many people pushing on the flop and I see the sense as you have two ways to win, I just dont feel comfy doing this myself. In the cash game I am happy to raise the flop when in position with the view to taking the hand or getting a free card but play them very(too) passively when out of position and tend to check call when getting the odds to do so.
As for the bet on the end, it could look like a bluff but its a big call for the other guy to make after your second show of strength. I am looking at the 1.5 million stack I would have if he folds instead of the 500k if I think I am behind but might move him.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
ariston
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #16 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:19:50 PM »
If keith bets the river here he is called with anything that beats him. I can call him there with as little as JT to be honest and I would put him on either TT or AT. I can deffinately rule out the flush anyway. He does not get the bluff through on the river - if the other guy folds his tens were good anyway. Tricky hand this but imo Keith played it as well as it could have been played no matter what the outcome was.
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ariston
better lucky than good
bobby1
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #17 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:39:40 PM »
Thanks, I agree that if he gets called he is behind and as I said Im not sure that the bet would be enough to move the other guy off his hand and if he is as good as you guys he may see the bet the same as you and correctly call.
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“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.”
ariston
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #18 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:46:32 PM »
sometimes you have to accept that you cant get a guy to throw away any hand that beats you- this for me is one of those examples. Just check it back and if your tens are good then they are good.
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ariston
better lucky than good
The Baron
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #19 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:48:16 PM »
I like the way this was played, all except the size of the raise on the turn. Maybe slightly bigger.
Raising on the flop vs this type of player does not appeal to me at all.
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julian
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #20 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:51:51 PM »
haven't been on this board before, looks good tho!
tough hand,
nasty flop but has potential.
i prob just call him all the way, terrified of getting moved-in on if i dare to raise him....
that's my play in a live environment anyhow,
online tho,
I BREAK IT OFF IN HIS ASS ON THE FLOP
(to quote the rookie)
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bobby1
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #21 on:
May 15, 2006, 10:58:05 PM »
Quote from: julian on May 15, 2006, 10:51:51 PM
haven't been on this board before, looks good tho!
tough hand,
nasty flop but has potential.
i prob just call him all the way, terrified of getting moved-in on if i dare to raise him....
that's my play in a live environment anyhow,
online tho,
I BREAK IT OFF IN HIS ASS ON THE FLOP
(to quote the rookie)
hee hee.It will be great to see the Camels thinking along the streets.
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Bertpup
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #22 on:
May 15, 2006, 11:25:17 PM »
Quote from: ariston on May 15, 2006, 08:27:40 PM
I posted my response before reading anyone elses but now I have I am amazed how many of you will still fall for a weak lead- this bet is common in big tournaments and you had all better learn to stop reraising flops like this. If a good player flops a monster he regularly leads out begging for a reraise, I'm not saying this was the case in this hand but if you gonna reraise here after a small probe looking bet you going to be left with lots of tricky decisions. What if you reraise the flop and I go allin? Obviously I have the monster and have duped you into reraising ( or do I have rags and am just pretending i ran a weak lead into you?). Calling is not always a weak play and is certainly for me the correct play at this stage of the tournament.
Do you not think that at this stage of the tournament that the SB would be willing to just flat call with so called monster hands out of position. Wouldnt a reraise be likely from AA-QQ maybe JJ aswell along with AK and AQ. The only hands that he could be leading out with are K10/99 but even with a set/two pair on this flop wouldnt you bet more to protect your hand from a potential flush or straight draw. I just cant see how anyone would want to milk anything from this flop unless they had the stone cold nuts. He has a big stack why potentially risk getting outdrawn and going from relative chip saftey to being right back in the pack.
What do you do if you just call the flop bet and you then face a 250k bet on the turn?
But i have never been in such a final table situation with such sums on offer so i could be talking utter nonsense
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Gamblor21
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #23 on:
May 15, 2006, 11:30:31 PM »
I think he could be weak on the flop, and with him being our resident at-it merchant he could have a hand such as
... bluffs the flop then makes some sort of hand on the turn and don't want to go away!
I probably reraise the flop here ( so everyone weak lead into me!) If he does have the hand or the courage to reraise again then i bow out kicking and screaming with my 600k
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ifm
If you're not part of the solution, you're a solid or a gas. Jimmy Carr
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #24 on:
May 16, 2006, 12:29:17 AM »
Quote from: ariston on May 15, 2006, 08:27:40 PM
I posted my response before reading anyone elses but now I have I am amazed how many of you will still fall for a weak lead- this bet is common in big tournaments and you had all better learn to stop reraising flops like this. If a good player flops a monster he regularly leads out begging for a reraise, I'm not saying this was the case in this hand but if you gonna reraise here after a small probe looking bet you going to be left with lots of tricky decisions. What if you reraise the flop and I go allin? Obviously I have the monster and have duped you into reraising ( or do I have rags and am just pretending i ran a weak lead into you?). Calling is not always a weak play and is certainly for me the correct play at this stage of the tournament.
OK by your reasoning the reraise on turn fell for the weak lead......
I don't claim to be all knowing and i certainly am not in the same class as Camel et al but...
I still think if the semibluff reraise is the move then it is stronger on the flop.
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ariston
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #25 on:
May 16, 2006, 12:35:11 AM »
on the turn it cant be a weak lead as you have already shown you may be drawing by calling flop. If he has very strong hand he has to protect it on turn by betting stronger. This is why the reraise semi on the turn is good as he probably only has a weak draw or a rag jack/queen himself.
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ariston
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TightEnd
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #26 on:
May 16, 2006, 12:38:30 AM »
whats wrong with flop call turn call and then take a view on the river then?
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ifm
If you're not part of the solution, you're a solid or a gas. Jimmy Carr
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #27 on:
May 16, 2006, 12:48:00 AM »
I'm a big fan of taking the lead in this hand, reraising the flop sends a message, if he bets big on the turn he HAS to have a hand, if not then i am a non believer and am gonna stick a big bet in here.
I do get the weak bet thingy, i do it a lot myself but not on a board like that without the straight, a reraise will force him to reveal how strong he is.
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Dubai
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #28 on:
May 16, 2006, 12:53:38 AM »
Jam the river imo.
Its unlikely he has donk led twice with a fl draw.
Its v unlikely he has a st draw as you have TT.
So therefore he has you beat but I watched the hand and was convinced he had no clue as to where he was and would 100% have passed to a river jam.
He passes plenty of big hands to a river jam on that board and passes AJ in a heartbeat. You had an extremely tight solid image and he would have respected that.
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ariston
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Re: Fascinating hand from last night...
«
Reply #29 on:
May 16, 2006, 01:09:38 AM »
Quote from: ifm on May 16, 2006, 12:48:00 AM
I'm a big fan of taking the lead in this hand, reraising the flop sends a message, if he bets big on the turn he HAS to have a hand, if not then i am a non believer and am gonna stick a big bet in here.
I do get the weak bet thingy, i do it a lot myself but not on a board like that without the straight, a reraise will force him to reveal how strong he is.
and because of that I will bet small on the flop and when you reraise me I will jam it allin- obviously I have the str8? I will also do this with rags because I know a good player will be trying for information so I will give it to him. The only way of stopping me making this play on you is to jam it allin but there are obvious risks in that play too. The call on the flop and raise on the turn is correct imo- it almost guarantees a check on the river meaning you will have lost the minimum. If Keith checks the turn and numpty bets big on the river where are you now? He would have to bet big on the river with a busted flush draw so you are tempted to call with your TT- in this instance i feel calling the turn costs you chips as your opponent should bet the river. reraising the turn also leaves you to bet allin on the river as Dubai would have but I make the call on you because of what i said earlier in this thread (although I know you do also reraise on the turn with the ace ten of diamonds etc so I would have to dwell a while first lol)
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ariston
better lucky than good
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