Re: Should I pass?

[matt674]

Regarding that tourney.......I have not cashed huge in it but I did pick up 13k for 8th.
If someone who has finished higher, in that exact event wants to tell me my fold was wrong I'm all ears.............

Your fold was wrong

If it would have been a satellite where you are a few places off winning a seat then yes i would pass but for a tournament where i want to give myself the best chance of progressing as far as possible then i would be all in with KK there.

I could understand it if the $400 would mean a lot to your bankroll, however in your case it doesnt - and the $400 would only pay for 2 days tournaments max - whereas a double/triple up in that situation and who knows how far you could have gone......

[action man]

obv you must have hit some cards to go from your position to 8th in the tourney if u play that KK you probably win the comp!!

[JungleCat03]

Taking the majority means little when 95% of the players lose money over time.
So I'd expect 19 people to tell me i'm wrong

This would be a good point if you were getting advised by a random sample of poker players, not winning players.

As you will win this hand OVER 83% of the time as occasionally players will fold despite the favourable pot odds, you've got to play it. Let's make some reasonable assumptions.

No 1 You push and 85% of the time you win.
No 2 You fold and 95% of the time you make the money.

So when you push and lose you sacrifice (15% * 400) - (5% * 400) or 40$.

If your bankroll was under 500$ then this might be too great a sacrifice to make, but then you probably shouldn't be in the comp.

Offset this 40$ against the gains you get from increased folding equity and greatly increased chance of being able to build a stack and get deep in the tournament and this is a very small amount of money to sacrifice.

There are other considerations to take into account too. For instance, doubling up immediately means you can now abuse the extra folding equity you have off players who will fold hands as strong as KK on the bubble!

[clayftknight]

Matt....

Imagine this...you fold the KK, then the next hand you move in with any two but you have locked up $400,  just as an example and the pot is as it was, you v 1 opponent, now let's assume you are 50/50 to win the hand, if you win you have the same chips as you would if you won with KK so your chance if winning big is the same, you just do it onw hand later.

So the stack when winning becomes irrelevant, you play KK you could lose $400 but are 83%,  you wait a hand and play the random 2 cards and you cannot lose $400 but you only have 50% chance of winning it.

Now just to clear things up............. if the payoouts went say $400 then $600 or $700 I'd play......but it wasn't it was $500 for the next level.
Also, if I had say 8k not 4k I'd play the KK...........so this is a very specific situation where the payout only increases by 25% and I have no folding equity and I am assured of $400 by folding and even if I played the KK and doubled I am still odds on to not make the next level of money.

Now regarding $400.
The feeling seems to be that this is nothing and I should be gambing for the 150k first prize!
It does not matter what your bankroll is, $400 is not nothing to me or to most of us.
How long does it take a 5/10 nl pro to win $400 ................. 20 hours at least!
Excluding Mr Rivercard ............. how long does it take most of you to earn $400?

[marcro]

'Playing to win'    that old excuse!


"Yeah I went out just before the money but I was playing to win!"

What follows next is calling your opponent a fish or a donk, something 'cool' like that lol

This sheep like mentality is exactly why poker pooks sell.

I agree with Clay - why risk being out of the money when all you have to do is most likely wait one orbit?  The reality is that with his short stack it is unlikely he is going to win the tourney so banking some cash and sticking them in at a later time has to be the EV+ move?

[clayftknight]

junglecat, why do you assume these are winning players?  I'm not saying they are not but how do you know?

Your numbers are wrong because there is 100% chance of moneying if I fold.
Your numbers are also wrong because the extra folding equity against players who fold KK on the bubble is lost because there will be no more bubble after this and you can get the same stack same position 1 or 2 hands later with 2 random cars. with a 30% potential drop in chance of winning but not 30% drop in chance of winning another $100......  I'd say you are giving up maybe 15% so $15, but in return you re saving 15% of $400 which is $60.

[clayftknight]

Actuallly Marco the wait is even less than that.

2 hands previousl to this I used my 120 seconds time bank and the field dropped from 619 to 607.
then 4 went the next hand.
So I fold my KK with 603 left an the very next hand we are in the money

Experience told me it would only be a couple of hands and it was.

Maybe someone on another table pushed with KK and finished 601st lol.

I did know when I posted this that some would disagree and that is fine but I am happy that this is a profitable play and I am also happpy that most disagree.

[matt674]

Matt....

Imagine this...you fold the KK, then the next hand you move in with any two but you have locked up $400,  just as an example and the pot is as it was, you v 1 opponent, now let's assume you are 50/50 to win the hand, if you win you have the same chips as you would if you won with KK so your chance if winning big is the same, you just do it onw hand later.

So the stack when winning becomes irrelevant, you play KK you could lose $400 but are 83%,  you wait a hand and play the random 2 cards and you cannot lose $400 but you only have 50% chance of winning it.

Now just to clear things up............. if the payoouts went say $400 then $600 or $700 I'd play......but it wasn't it was $500 for the next level.
Also, if I had say 8k not 4k I'd play the KK...........so this is a very specific situation where the payout only increases by 25% and I have no folding equity and I am assured of $400 by folding and even if I played the KK and doubled I am still odds on to not make the next level of money.

Now regarding $400.
The feeling seems to be that this is nothing and I should be gambing for the 150k first prize!
It does not matter what your bankroll is, $400 is not nothing to me or to most of us.
How long does it take a 5/10 nl pro to win $400 ................. 20 hours at least!
Excluding Mr Rivercard ............. how long does it take most of you to earn $400?

risk/reward - i'll take my chances with KK every time.......

[Pab]

id have shipped it in with 67 suited about an hour ago, wouldnt be that low, lol

[The Rivercard]

Matt....

Imagine this...you fold the KK, then the next hand you move in with any two but you have locked up $400,  just as an example and the pot is as it was, you v 1 opponent, now let's assume you are 50/50 to win the hand, if you win you have the same chips as you would if you won with KK so your chance if winning big is the same, you just do it onw hand later.

So the stack when winning becomes irrelevant, you play KK you could lose $400 but are 83%,  you wait a hand and play the random 2 cards and you cannot lose $400 but you only have 50% chance of winning it.

Now just to clear things up............. if the payoouts went say $400 then $600 or $700 I'd play......but it wasn't it was $500 for the next level.
Also, if I had say 8k not 4k I'd play the KK...........so this is a very specific situation where the payout only increases by 25% and I have no folding equity and I am assured of $400 by folding and even if I played the KK and doubled I am still odds on to not make the next level of money.

Now regarding $400.
The feeling seems to be that this is nothing and I should be gambing for the 150k first prize!
It does not matter what your bankroll is, $400 is not nothing to me or to most of us.
How long does it take a 5/10 nl pro to win $400 ................. 20 hours at least!
Excluding Mr Rivercard ............. how long does it take most of you to earn $400?

CLAY        

You never fold kk on the button with no one in but the blinds EVER EVER EVER   forget bankroll or any other mis guided  reasons.

But as I know you so well, I know you could ask the audience take 50/50 or phone a friend like Ivey,Brunson or Lederer and you would still say you were right.

 

[clayftknight]

badpab is the only 'nay sayer' who has given a good alternative to my fold.

'Best block is no be there'

[matt674]

badpab is the only 'nay sayer' who has given a good alternative to my fold.

'Best block is no be there'

Yes but you werent asking opinions on what you should have done an hour ago - you were talking about that specific hand. Hence our answers on that specific hand.......

[Royal Flush]

I did know when I posted this that some would disagree and that is fine but I am happy that this is a profitable play and I am also happpy that most disagree.

It is a profitable play.....for the BB,

Anyway gl, keep folding KK there, just let me know if we are on the same table.

[action man]

is everone on this planet?  Forget %'s +ev -ev,  its just daft play!!   btw would you have passed AA?

[clayftknight]

I'd have passed 2 pair preflop.