El Blondie's Exit Hand (WSOP $2000 NLHE)

[Royal Flush]

I am not so sure about this call. I read before in a similar spot where Dave called all in pre flop in the Vic with KJ, i believe they were short handed and it was him and the other big stack with 2 short stacks clinging on. I don't really understand why in a field like that (pretty weak i imagine) you would want to call off 20bb's pre flop with A9! Re-raise against a button raise sure, but call all in, not for me!

All i know is next time i am playing Dave and we are blind vs blind i am just going to ship it in with a big hand, sigh a bit, then recieve the call

Ul still though DC, gl in the next comps!

[totalise]

you want to call because you have betrayed your hand strength.. you want to call here because its Max Pescatori doing this.. and he needs very little reason to get his stack in the middle. Put yourself in Max spot, a good player has limped your BB, how often is he doing this with a hand that can call an all-in? estimate a percentage. If its around 20% then Max is correct to pretty much stack off with any two cards here... as he picks up the pot 80% of the time, and has reasonable equity the other 20% of the time.

A9 is going to have about 60% equity in this spot vs Max' range, yet people are focusing too much on the fact that he got X blinds in with a weakish ace. In poker, your hand strength is always relative to that of your opponents.. and Daves hand has about as much equity here as QQ does facing a UTG raise from someone who hasn't played a hand in two hours, yet not many people would even consider throwing QQ away, rather.. they would walk into KK and say "well, thats poker, what can I do"

The interesting thing for me in this hand isn't whether to call or not. I think if you are limping into an aggressive players BB with a hand like A9, you are doing it to induce the BB to try and take it away, so the call is getting close to automatic.. the interesting thing is whether to limp or not in the first place

Flushy states thus:

I don't really understand why in a field like that (pretty weak i imagine) you would want to call off 20bb's pre flop with A9!

I think thats pretty dismissive, its into the money, and its a reasonably high buyin tourney.. .what kind of edge do you think you have over the table to be throwing away spots where you are getting laid odds against when you are a strongish odds on fav against a good players range? One thing that is always over-estimated by players is their edge over other people, and if you think your edge is bigger then 60% against the field when you have 20bb's.. you are most likely wrong. Lets not forget the great spot he is in if he calls and wins, he cripples a dangerous player, gets a commanding chip stack, and has liscense to accumulate. The benefits of calling and winning here are immense.

[Royal Flush]

One thing that is always over-estimated by players is their edge over other people, and if you think your edge is bigger then 60% against the field when you have 20bb's.. you are most likely wrong.

I agree with you that most people over estimate which edges they should fold. I have posted many times that a good players edge is made up, partly, in knowing when to make these close gambles.

However, i still feel this hand is not right, the edge in a comp like this for a player who adapts is HUGE! The strucutre here is very similar to the afternoon comps on tribeca, your average stack is about the same on this blind level and i have played this situation 100 times before. I know from experience that it becomes very easy to pick up steals, people start panicking trying to nick blinds and you can re-steal. That is where the good players edge is in a comp like this.

As for Daves limping range, i would say into an aggresive player it would be quite tight. He is more often than not doing it with a big hand to induce a play.

[elblondie]

I limped expecting a pot size raise...which I would have moved over the top of....maybe Max foresaw this, and that was why he moved all-in.

errrr, and since when has A9 v A4 been only a 60% fav ? i need to look these up again...it's been 20 years or so 

[Jim-D]

A 9 v A 4  Off suit

A9 wins 59.69% of the time

[Newmanseye]

A 9 v A 4  Off suit

A9 wins 59.69% of the time

That is true, however the A 4 only wins 24% of the time, the rest its a tie.

[Royal Flush]

I limped expecting a pot size raise...which I would have moved over the top of

Thats what i fancied.

[totalise]

I limped expecting a pot size raise...which I would have moved over the top of....maybe Max foresaw this, and that was why he moved all-in.

errrr, and since when has A9 v A4 been only a 60% fav ? i need to look these up again...it's been 20 years or so 

the 60% is in reference to the range of hands you would expect him to have in this spot, not specifically A9's equity vs A4

[robyong]

DC is limping to induce a move from an aggressive bully type player whose average hand will be J3. The decison to call was already made when DC limped. 60 : 40 is better than AK v 22 so why not take your chances?

[BigTomatoes]

 i feel 2 to 1 odds is good enough to commit all your chips pre flop, maybe not 3 to 2 but if he had a solid read then why not?

[Royal Flush]

Its the size of the move that puts me off, i dont know how its 60-40 he can be behind.

[GlasgowBandit]

Some decent arguements for the calla nd the pass on this thread, for me I have chnaged my mind each time I have read a different post.  Seems to be Daves read was spot on and he just got unlucky, however I think in this situation I am making a raise pre-flop, and if the fella comes over the top then I am getting away from it.  I like Dave's rational behind it all though and Monkey has the same train of thought, some times you have to stick the lot in and believe that your read on your oppo was spot on.  It was clear that when Dave started counting out the chips he can see Max is uneasy and doesn'tw ant the call, I think thought that Dave has justified his play by the reaction he got from Max.

Unlucky Dave, and Dave I got £25 on you final tabling in the big ine so you better do it! 

[boldie]

I say it's a brilliant call...and it's a call way out of my league. IOW, I completely understand why Dave made it and I completely agree with his reasoning but I would probably not be good enough to make it.

That's the difference between amateurs, good amateurs and pro's..(and if you are not unlucky enough to get sunk by a straight on the river...bracelet winners).

I hope that one day I'll be good enough to call that raise....especially at a WSOP