jumping the gun here?

[jezza777]

This is my exit hand from an MTT on Crypto last night. I made the move without thinking too much about it. My thinking was basically , there is 1800 in the pot from blinds and antes , it's 6 handed, I am 1st into the pot , I have 10.5xbb which is enough to win with no contest. Also I have been playing very , very tight, the only hands I have shown down all tourney are AA, JJ , QQ, and AK (the jj was quads and the qq a set). KQs is enough to move in here.
 I spoke to a friend and he reckons it was a questionable play mainly because if I get a call I am regularly in bad shape. The coinflip with 99 was the best I could hope for. ( I was pretty happy when the cards were turned over). So can I make a standard raise and fold here? Or should I pass and wait? Or is moving in the way to go?
I know we are close to a final table and this represents a jump in prizemoney . I don't let the bubble or laddering affect my decisions except when I am against players who are affected by the bubble situation.

I am xklusive.








------HAND 666------
Game #2910132844: Hold'em NL (400/800) - 2006/07/05 - 21:18:07 (ET)
Table "£3000 GTD NTXpress 2978873 - 2" Seat 7 is the button.
Seat 3: Xklusive (8615 in chips)
Seat 4: ballybob (59165 in chips)
Seat 5: Samsnadey (6700 in chips)
Seat 7: CashhsaC (24845 in chips)
Seat 8: Donol4520 (17720 in chips)
Seat 9: Woodmondo (17700 in chips)
Donol4520: posts the ante 100
Woodmondo: posts the ante 100
Xklusive: posts the ante 100
ballybob: posts the ante 100
Samsnadey: posts the ante 100
CashhsaC: posts the ante 100
Donol4520: posts small blind 400
Woodmondo: posts big blind 800
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Xklusive [ ]
Xklusive: raises to 8515 and is all-in
ballybob: folds
Samsnadey: folds
CashhsaC: raises to 24745 and is all-in
Donol4520: folds
Woodmondo: folds
Returned uncalled bets 16,230 to CashhsaC
----- FLOP ----- [ ]
----- TURN ----- [ ][]
----- RIVER ----- [ ][]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
CashhsaC: shows [ ] (A Pair of Nines, Ace high)
Xklusive: shows [ ] (High Card Ace)
CashhsaC collects 18830 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 18830 Main pot 18830 Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 3: Xklusive showed [ ] and lost
Seat 4: ballybob folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Samsnadey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: CashhsaC (button) showed [ ] and won (18830) with A Pair of Nines, Ace high
Seat 8: Donol4520 (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Woodmondo (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[ifm]

I like the move personally, the only thing wrong in my eyes (and i think this is critical) is position.
UTG is not the place for this move, there are (obviously) 5 players to get through and 3 of them have you well outchipped and the big stack will call you with a pretty wide range of hands.
So it's an easy fold for me in this instance but purely for that reason.

[jezza777]

I think you may be right IFM but I pay 1400 in chips out in the next 2 hands . Will I get a better opportunity?

[ifm]

I think you may be right IFM but I pay 1400 in chips out in the next 2 hands . Will I get a better opportunity?

Well at least in the blinds you have information from the other players, and it leaves you with enough oportunities to get them in from a more favourable position.
1400 doesn't do too much damage IMO

[NoflopsHomer]

Nothing wrong, I'd do exactly the same. If you lose 1400 more chips, and then gamble on a coinflip, you've essentially lost a extra 3k, I'd move with less than you have six-handed.

[IveGotOuts]

6 handed you have a decent enough chance of your hand being the best and a push getting through. However I agree with ifm and would have waited.

[boldie]

I like the move personally, the only thing wrong in my eyes (and i think this is critical) is position.
UTG is not the place for this move, there are (obviously) 5 players to get through and 3 of them have you well outchipped and the big stack will call you with a pretty wide range of hands.
So it's an easy fold for me in this instance but purely for that reason.

Good post. position is much more important then people think.

The move you made shows a guy thinking "Well, I've got a half decent hand now...need to make a move or I'm in trouble soon....Won't get a better shot then this probably....ah might aswell" and you go all in.

I used to do this all the time (in life tourneys) and got called EVERY single time...and was ussually knocked out.

The rule of 4 dictates that if there are 4 people in the pot (or to act after you) one of them will call...even if he doesn't have a great hand.  (ussually this holds up)
If you are UTG and there are 5 players acting after you, you will therefore always get 1 caller.
If you are only after the blinds and antes you therefore can not raise all in from UTG with a hand that's not big.

If you wait untill your position is better and you see 2 or 3 players fold before you have to bet...you can go all in with J 8 offsuit (or worse crap). the 2 or 3 people behind then really need to have a hand for them to call you and the odds of 2 or 3 people having a good enough hand to call all in with or 5 or 6 people having a hand to call all in with......I'd much rather only have 2 people acting after me.

You could of course still get kncoked out but atleast then you will know you made the right play...and that makes a big difference to the way you feel about losing.

[NoflopsHomer]

I find it difficult to believe that I'm alone in advocating the all-in here. Will he find a better hand within the next three hands? Unlikely, plus once he loses another 1.4k in chips, the calling of the all-in becomes less worrisome to the big stacks but at the moment he costs the two medium stacks in the blinds about half their chips, also, the biggest stack is directly to his left and may well look him up with more marginal hands if he makes a play from late position anyway.

[ifm]

I find it difficult to believe that I'm alone in advocating the all-in here. Will he find a better hand within the next three hands? Unlikely, plus once he loses another 1.4k in chips, the calling of the all-in becomes less worrisome to the big stacks but at the moment he costs the two medium stacks in the blinds about half their chips, also, the biggest stack is directly to his left and may well look him up with more marginal hands if he makes a play from late position anyway.

Flopsy baby yo miss the point, the hand itself is irrelevent

[Wardonkey]

The move is bit loose, normally I'd need to be down to 6 or 7 BBs before moving in UTG with this hand. However I might do it if the table was extremely tight and my image was good.

In this situation with all those big stacks around I'd be much more inclined to wait.
An alternative move would be to put a mini raise of 1 to 1.5 the BB in. This is often interpretted as strong, particularly from a tight player, if your re-raised you can pass, often you will steal the blinds or get to see a cheap flop.

[thetank]

This is why I always make a point of re-raising Wardonkey with small pairs 

[NoflopsHomer]

The move is bit loose, normally I'd need to be down to 6 or 7 BBs before moving in UTG with this hand. However I might do it if the table was extremely tight and my image was good.

In this situation with all those big stacks around I'd be much more inclined to wait.
An alternative move would be to put a mini raise of 1 to 1.5 the BB in. This is often interpretted as strong, particularly from a tight player, if your re-raised you can pass, often you will steal the blinds or get to see a cheap flop.

The 10BB's is an illusion, you actually only have enough for 5 orbits.

[totalise]

I think the math is correct:

If we assume that you will only get called when you are beat (which is a worst case scenario) then theres 6 ways to make any pair (apart from Q's or K's, which is 3 ways) and theres 16 ways to make any Ace (apart from AQ or AK which is 9 ways)

(6*11) + (3*2) + (16*11) + (9*2) which is 266 hands... 266/1225~~0.217

the odds that no-one will call are therefore (1-0.217)^5 = 0.294

0.294*1800= 529.2 chips

The rest of the time, you'll get called by one of the above hands

pokerstove quickly tells us that our equity vs the above range is 43.26%

The pot will on average be 18,400 (as you sometimes get called by the blind, sometimes out of the blind)

so

((0.4326*18400) - 8615) = -655 chips lost per time you get called

655* 0.706= 462.43

529.2 - 462.43 = +66.77

the EV of folding is zero, so for me, the choice between jamming/folding is the former.

Also, remember that this is the very worst case scenario, if they only call with AK--AJ/99++, your situation is going to be much more advantageous, and they might also call with worse hands like KJ or QJ etc. The point is, even in a pretty much worst case scenario, jamming is +ev, and if your play is governed by trying to maximize EV in each and every decision, then jamming is in my very humble opinion if not the best play, better then folding.

some people say "what is the best way to play a short stack".. and generally I think the best response is "turn it into a big stack", and you typically do this by identifying spots that are +ev and going with them.


"but totalise, if you lose, you cant steal blinds later on"

"well sir, thats true.. but you win more then you lose, and then you are adding more chips to a fatter stack. You are gaining more and more leverage each and every time you do this. You are winning more and more chips each and every time you get to a showdown with the winning hand, you are making your BB harder and harder to steal. The venom of a scorpion is much more deadly then the flapping of a birds wings... the more damage you can cause to an attacker, the less likely they are to attack"

[boldie]

I find it difficult to believe that I'm alone in advocating the all-in here. Will he find a better hand within the next three hands? Unlikely, plus once he loses another 1.4k in chips, the calling of the all-in becomes less worrisome to the big stacks but at the moment he costs the two medium stacks in the blinds about half their chips, also, the biggest stack is directly to his left and may well look him up with more marginal hands if he makes a play from late position anyway.

Flopsy baby yo miss the point, the hand itself is irrelevent

yep...it's the position that matters. (IMO)