Heads Up Question: Pass or Call?

[Phil]

Ok, this isn't a direct hand analysis, but it is something that happened in a hand last night at AdamM's home game that has got me thinking... and I can't decide on the answer.

You are heads up with a 2:1 chip lead. Blinds are about 400/800 you have 20k, opponent 10k.. so blinds aren't that damaging just yet.

You are a few hands into heads up, and now in the BB. Your oponent moves all in preflop from the SB and you see a suited AQ... call or pass?



As I see it, you are very unlikely to be ahead. This screams small pair IMO. Any hands that you can beat are not really 'all in' hands at this stage, so you're almost certainly in a coin flip situation. With a 2:1 chip lead, should you be taking this?

[ACE2M]

i call everytime.

[Phil]

ACE2M - Based on what reasoning though? I agree with you (well I called in the situation) but can't justify it in my own head as the 100% right move!

[totalise]

ACE2M - Based on what reasoning though? I agree with you (well I called in the situation) but can't justify it in my own head as the 100% right move!

because you need to win all the chips to win the tourney, and assuming that your opponent is pushing with any pair and any ace, you win the tournament rite here about 60% of the time. 6 times out of 10 you win the tourney in this hand, and 4 times out of 10 you lose and are facing a 2:1 deficit. This is a real good proposition.

Also with the shallow stacks, if you fold lets say 6 hands in a row (which if you fold AQ here, you aren't likely to get better in six hands)  paying on average 600 per hand, you have gone from 20k:10k to 16,400:13,600 and you haven't had a chance to win the match. You are letting him back in without having a chance to take all his chips

[Phil]

I'm not sure this could be anything but a pair though. Would anyone really push with a raggy ace there? If i was in that position I would just make my standard raise with an ace. The only hand that I think it's likely to to be is a small pair as people don't like playing flops with them HU... therefore I see it as a direct 50:50, possibly 45:55 against you.

I think the chances of actually being ahead are extremely small considering the blinds and the move.

[ACE2M]

ACE2M - Based on what reasoning though? I agree with you (well I called in the situation) but can't justify it in my own head as the 100% right move!

because you need to win all the chips to win the tourney, and assuming that your opponent is pushing with any pair and any ace, you win the tournament rite here about 60% of the time. 6 times out of 10 you win the tourney in this hand, and 4 times out of 10 you lose and are facing a 2:1 deficit. This is a real good proposition.

Also with the shallow stacks, if you fold lets say 6 hands in a row (which if you fold AQ here, you aren't likely to get better in six hands)  paying on average 600 per hand, you have gone from 20k:10k to 16,400:13,600 and you haven't had a chance to win the match. You are letting him back in without having a chance to take all his chips

Just what i was going to say!!

I'm not sure this could be anything but a pair though. Would anyone really push with a raggy ace there? If i was in that position I would just make my standard raise with an ace. The only hand that I think it's likely to to be is a small pair as people don't like playing flops with them HU... therefore I see it as a direct 50:50, possibly 45:55 against you.

I think the chances of actually being ahead are extremely small considering the blinds and the move.

Maybe we don't play the same games but i see so many all ins when heads up with any ace that i just would not contemplate folding because of the many many times i am in front.

I really don't mind 50/50 if i also think there is a strong chance of being a 70% faourite. My personal rule is A 10 or better and i am calling all ins heads up (some exceptions to this depending on opposition)

The ept final was decided on and Ace rag all in by the shortstack when he really didn't need to make the move at all, called by A10 from the chip leader. Madm3 had played so great up to that point i think he just forgot himself and made a $30 stt heads up move at the end.

[SupaMonkey]

Maybe the maths is a call but isn't this player dependent? If Phil has played with this guy (this is the end of a home stt right?) for a few hours and Phil strongly believes his opponent would only do this with a pp, then how can he be wrong to fold. I think we really need other info to be able to make this decision.

Totalise, I know the numbers that you pull up are correct, but i am questioning the ability of any mathematical model to successfully describe this situation. I mean, the opponent looked at his cards before moving all in didn't he?

[Longy]

As supamonkey said this is read dependent. Lets say its average opponent in 10 quid stt it has to be a call, the only hands you hate here is ak, aa-qq. Other pushing hands here must be 22-JJ and AJ A10, KQ thats for a tightish player.

With that range it is exactly 50 50 if you put it in poker stove. If you add more hands in like any ace, you are about 60 40. Based on that im calling everytime unless i think my opponent is a complete rock.

I must admit its close than i expected.

[Royal Flush]

Totalise, I know the numbers that you pull up are correct, but i am questioning the ability of any mathematical model to successfully describe this situation. I mean, the opponent looked at his cards before moving all in didn't he?

He said if they guy had Ax or any pair. Not any 2 cards.

Unless the player is a complete rock then how can you pass? How can you put them on PP anyway?!?

[SupaMonkey]

You're right, my bad.

[totalise]

Totalise, I know the numbers that you pull up are correct, but i am questioning the ability of any mathematical model to successfully describe this situation. I mean, the opponent looked at his cards before moving all in didn't he?

If you dont use math, how else do you decide whether or not to play a hand... play eeny meeny miny mo?   A mathematical model doesn't describe the situation, thats where the player comes into it. Once the player has described it, these are called assumptions, he/it  then uses math to try and determine the correct course of action, be it raise/fold/call... and you base assumptions on prior experience both with this guy in general, and with experience at being Heads Up with shallow stacks, and its normally the case that people are moving in here with any half decent hand. This is where the Ax/pp guesstimate comes from... not getting a calculator out my pocket and bashing some stuff in.

If Phil has played with this guy (this is the end of a home stt right?) for a few hours and Phil strongly believes his opponent would only do this with a pp, then how can he be wrong to fold.

we aren't mind readers you know. The whole point of boards like this is where people give out all the available information to them at a given time, and then we discuss the best course of action. If it is the case where Phil thinks he can ONLY be doing this with a pocket pair, then you are correct, folding isn't bad at all.... but this wasn't included in the origional post, so we cant just try and figure out what the "read" is, he needs to tell us.  Little bits of information like this form the "assumptions" that was mentioned in the previous paragraph.

(i see he says that "this screams small pair etc etc", but thats kinda misleading as on first glance it comes across as that being his estimate of a typical opponents jamming standards in that spot, not specifically his opponent, and that is much too tight for a typical opponent. If that is his read of this specific opponent, then I think it should be made clearer.. but no real biggie)

Maybe the maths is a call but isn't this player dependent?

why do so many people think that the mathematics of poker ignore opponent tendancies? Math guys dont just ignore what is going on at the table, they still notice if someone hasn't raised UTG for 5 hours, they still notice if someone is shaking their wig after raising 3*bb.  If this guy is an absolute rock, then the math will say its a FOLD!


Anyways, if Phil really does believe that his oppo can ONLY be doing this with a pocket pair, then sure, go ahead and fold..his equity is only around 40%, which makes calling WRONG! but its pretty rare to find someone who will jam with 55 here but wouldn't also push with almost any ace as well, which is why I would call, and be as pleased as punch to do so

[thetank]

Anytime, anyplace, anywhere, any way

Anytime, anyplace, anywhere, any day-ay

 

Call me (call me) my love

Call me, call me any, anytime


Your opponent isn't likely to push with the 3 hands that have you in big trouble. He is likely to push with far more hands that you have tied in knots.

I think a pass would be criminal unless your opponent is very very bad (ie, raises one hand in 20, always check-folds flop)

This is probably not the case.

[Phil]

Your opponent isn't likely to push with the 3 hands that have you in big trouble. He is likely to push with far more hands that you have tied in knots.

Ok, that sentence has pretty much summed it up for me, that this is a call - as a general rule of thumb at least.


Like I said originally, this was intended to be a specific hand analysis, just a situation which I would imagine isn't too uncommon. In the actual game I called (instantly as it happens) and my opponent had 55, which held up. But I did come back to win after that!

[SupaMonkey]

Totalise, i didn't mean to offend you. I just find this situation marginal without the extra info and i wouldn't like to give up my chip lead.

[totalise]

Totalise, i didn't mean to offend you. I just find this situation marginal without the extra info and i wouldn't like to give up my chip lead.