Cash game hand

[Bertpup]

Just wondering what options there are for the turn here. My image at the table has been very aggressive. I buy in for the minimum at these tables. I have just lost a hand where i raised preflop from cut off continuation betted then faced an all in push on the turn. My view on my opponent is that he has been quite tight yet good enough to be able to get away from hands.


***** Hand History for Game 4725903794 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, July 14, 08:59:03 ET 2006
Table Out To Sea (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: kittedim ( $75.30 )
Seat 3: dogginutz ( $151.71 )
Seat 4: bl00wfish ( $99.50 )
Seat 5: HoNy77 ( $99 )
Seat 1: Bertpup ( $68.25 )
Seat 6: Senior_Buffet ( $72.15 )
Bertpup posts small blind [$0.50].
kittedim posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bertpup [  As ]
>You have options at Table  106813 Table!.
dogginutz calls [$1].
>You have options at Table  96834 Table!.
Senior_Buffet calls [$1].
>You have options at Live It Up Table!.
>You have options at Table  96834 Table!.
Bertpup raises [$4.50].
kittedim folds.
dogginutz folds.
Senior_Buffet calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
>You have options at Table  106813 Table!.
Bertpup bets [$5].
>You have options at Table  106813 Table!.
Senior_Buffet raises [$10].
Bertpup calls [$5].
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]

What would peoples play be here?

[SupaMonkey]

Ok, i may be wrong here but I'll have a stab anyway.

I think you're options are;

Check-fold: If you check he is likely to bet and if he doesn't you get a free draw to your 15 clean outs. However, the min raise and decent sized bet on the next street (if your opponent checks to you) is a fairly standard bluff. You said you previously folded after continuation betting so your oppo's raise may just be to test to see if you have an overpair i.e. he thinks your raise may be meaningless.

Bet the pot: If you do this then you are getting odds if he moves over the top of you. He may even fold A-10 (and other hands athat are ahead of you here) but i don't really put him on that because i would have expected a bigger flop bet.

Move in: Why not? you are OOP and i think he is pulling a fast one here. I can't think of a hand he would have that would cause him to min raise the flop like that and your allin will have more FE than just betting the pot.

I would move in and pray he hasn't played a set badly. If he calls you still have a good draw.

Edit, I forgot to add that my preferred play would have been to check-raise allin but i don't think the stacks are deep enough for that.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

myself, personally, i would not have raised preflop with this from the SB. Thats where youve got yourself into some trouble here IMO.

[LeKnave]

myself, personally, i would not have raised preflop with this from the SB. Thats where youve got yourself into some trouble here IMO.

 

[byronkincaid]

I would have just pushed after the flop min raise.

[Lee]

Check-fold: If you check he is likely to bet and if he doesn't you get a free draw to your 15 clean outs.

15 outs here is IMO too many.

If he has QJ, you are drawing to 9 outs (flush draw) to win or 3 outs for a split pot
If he has a set, then you are drawing to 10 outs (4xQ, 6 flush cards) (6 flush cards only as 2 of them would fill up his house and is already counted for)

Sometimes IMO, it is too easy to just add all your outs up and forget that something that will improve his hand, cannot be classed as an out. Its hard to know for sure, but when calculating outs, i only take the ones which would definitely mean me winning the pot. (i may be wrong doing this, i just think you can make a situation look far better than it is, by not calculating your outs this way)

, , , , , , , , , are my only outs i would count here.

If an ace flops, it might be good, but would i call a huge bet with a lone pair of aces - no.
If the 7 flops, giving the idiot end, will i call a huge bet again - no.
If a J flops, will i call a huge bet - no.

This may be a little negative thinking this way, it'd be interesting to hear peoples thoughts. My main problem when you are drawing is how many chips you piss away when you miss and if you do hit, will you get anymore money off them etc.

In this hand i would check the turn, if he pots it, then i'm either all in or folding, calling here is not an option. If he doesnt bet pot and gives me odds to draw (which i doubt he will), i would only ever class myself as 25% chance in this hand and would only draw with the correct odds.

[SupaMonkey]

Fair enough, you've got a good point there. I forgot about subtracting the outs for the boat and i didn't even think he had made the straight.

If he's got a set, surely you've got 13 outs. 5 flush cards plus 8 cards for the top and bottom of the straight.

[Lee]

If he's got a set, surely you've got 13 outs. 5 flush cards plus 8 cards for the top and bottom of the straight.

Very true if you can pinpoint him to be on a set, problem for me would be knowing whether its a set or a straight that he has and i am certainly not good enough to differentiate those holdings. In fact can anyone ever genuinely deduce the difference between a set and a straight here?

[SupaMonkey]

I totally agree. We should use 9 outs here.

In that case i fire 2/3rds of the pot and hope he's at it. Any resistance and i'm outta dodge.

[Lee]

I totally agree. We should use 9 outs here.

In that case i fire 2/3rds of the pot and hope he's at it. Any resistance and i'm outta dodge.

Yeah i agree, i'd use 9 i think, which is about 21%.

I'd probably 1/3rd pot, hope to god he min raises me back and then i have the odds to call and can re-assess on the river.

[totalise]

I totally agree. We should use 9 outs here.

In that case i fire 2/3rds of the pot and hope he's at it. Any resistance and i'm outta dodge.

by outta dodge, do you mean fold? if so, could you explain why?

[TightEnd]

buiyng in for a min stack against a similar size stack here i like the push all in after you are raised on the flop

You have 9-13 outs twice so are at worst a 36% shot (9 x the rule of 4)

You will have some fold equity too, which isn't the worst result in the world

and presumably you can reload for another small stack if you miss

I'd push before the turn

[SupaMonkey]

I totally agree. We should use 9 outs here.

In that case i fire 2/3rds of the pot and hope he's at it. Any resistance and i'm outta dodge.

by outta dodge, do you mean fold? if so, could you explain why?

Yup, i mean fold.

I would fold because imo he has either flopped a set, 2pr or a str8. I find the min raise here is either 'i have a monster' or 'if you check the turn i will bluff you'. So if you bet and he calls or raises then it is probably the first one. The definition of a monster is debatable on this flop but i think you know what i mean.

Why, is that a bad play?

[Longy]

I must admit i would have played the hand the same as you, that may not to be everyones taste.  I hate calling here pre flop firstly you are letting the big blind with a random hand and you   is almost certainly good against the 2 limpesr who will often just fold or will calling with an inferior hand.

Flop is fine you continuation bet with a big draw and then call getting the correct odds ( tho Tighty idea of pushing in is quite good play here)

As for the turn this is a bit of a hand reading exercise of what he has, he could well have a set tho often won't 10's or 9's raise here pre flop, other hands we hate here are 3's, qj  and 10 9, 10 8 who are not folding. You may also get calls off sneakily(badly) played overpairs. Hands that often fold here if we push are a10, a9  so random rubbish.

I like the push all in here which should give us enough fold equity, interestingly if you put all the bad hands he can have here you still win the pot 34% of the time as poker stove show below.

2,772  games     0.005 secs   554,400  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

           equity (%)     win (%)   tie (%)
Hand  1:   34.1450 %     33.33%    00.81%      { AsJs }
Hand  2:   65.8550 %     65.04%    00.81%      { 88+, 33, ATs, QJs, T9s, ATo, QJo, T9o }

[totalise]

I totally agree. We should use 9 outs here.

In that case i fire 2/3rds of the pot and hope he's at it. Any resistance and i'm outta dodge.

by outta dodge, do you mean fold? if so, could you explain why?

Yup, i mean fold.

I would fold because imo he has either flopped a set, 2pr or a str8. I find the min raise here is either 'i have a monster' or 'if you check the turn i will bluff you'. So if you bet and he calls or raises then it is probably the first one. The definition of a monster is debatable on this flop but i think i know what you mean.

Why, is that a bad play?

I think so, mainly because of the pot size and your stack size.. you are getting over 3/1 (3.15/1) so you only need around 24% equity to justify a call, and these are some of the match-ups:

against AA you have 35% equity
against KK, you have 40% equity
against 99 you have 30% equity
against 10/9 you have 34% equity
against JQ you have 20% equity

now assuming that your villain can ONLY have these hands, its still a pretty clear call, and they dont always have these hands anyways. Sometimes they have the same kinda hand as you.. overcards with a flush draw. Sometimes they have a naked flush draw, sometimes they have a pair and a flush draw, sometimes they dont have a damn thing but want to bluff because they saw sammy farha do it on High Stakes Poker. Sometimes they have a small pocket pair. Admittedly, they dont have these kinda hands very often, but they do have them at least some of the time, so it only swings the equity more and more in your favor

In my opine betting and folding is leaving money (quite a reasonable sum) on the table

I probably agree with tighty here, Id just slam it in on the flop and spin it up.