Time 2 push ?

[NEVES]

hi,

 Final table 8 left 5 get reddies (quite a flat payout) blinds 400/800
 My stack 4800 two players have a 1000 less two a 1000 more one
 Guy is on the felt and the other two are chip heavy.

 I am utg with 7-7 so i lump it in find a couple of callers holding AK AJ
 Ace on flop and the party is over, should my play of been different.

  All comments and friendly abuse most welcome.

                                 Neves.

[Dale]

Even if you give everyone a calling range of something like 77+ , ATs+, AJo+ then out of the other 7 people still to act you\'ve got a pretty good chance of being called and either youre dominated or flipping a coin. If 2 people call youre in even worse shape.
If everyone folds then you increase your stack by 25%.

You would want to be on at least the cutoff to make that push, with 4 people folding ahead of you then pushing with 77 would be much more +ev.

Pushing 77 utg was poor there given the stack sizes, number of players to act, and payout structure, I dont have the tools to do the calculations on this PC but I dont think you gain enough value with this move to make it profitable in the long run.
UTG here I\'d shove JJ+ and AK. from the SB with every folded I\'d shove just about any 2 cards.
You\'re certainly in push fold mode though so fold the .

Holla.

[Dale]

I guess i also should have mentioned that if you double up then your chip stack increases 100% but your $ev doesnt.
That is to say that you do not double the equity that you have in the tournament, nowhere near it.

I\'m not sure how familiar you are with ICM theory so I this might sound patronising but imagine a sit-n-go tournament situation where 10 players each pay $10 to enter, no rake, it pays 50/30/20 and they get 1000 chips each. At the start of the tournament each player has $ev of $10, their equity in the tournament is $10.
If one player doubles up to 2000 chips in the first hand his equity doesnt increase to $20, instead some equity is spread between the other players.
And just to make this clearer..... If one player gets all 10,000 chips then his equity isn\'t $100, it\'s $50.
When your opponents go all in against each other, YOU gain.

You need to remember this and avoid getting into a likely coinflip situation near the bubble when your stack is relatively healthy.

If you post the exact $ return for each payout place and the exact stack sizes of each player (and point out any super tight or super loose opponents).....  then I can do some calculations later on and we can figure out a range of hands that you should be pushing and calling with in each position there. Should help you out a lot for the next time youre in the same situation.

[Royal Flush]

You played it perfect, unlucky that you got a call and then even unluckier that you got outdrawn.

[Dubai]

Didnt read the thread but its always time to push. So agree with pushing.

[Dale]

I did run some calculations on this, based on the :
8 players, 5 places pay, flat pay structure, and stacks sizes that were described.

With a fairly generic calling range assigned to every player, top 10% of hands (55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs), pushing here will get you called about 55% of the time by one of those hands and works out to be a slightly -ev push.
even if you try making the calling ranges more realistic... give the smaller stacks a looser calling range and the other medium stacks a tighter calling range, it still works out marginal at best.

It's worth pointing out that if youre not UTG but UTG+2 (2 of the 7 opponents have already folded) then pushing 77 becomes a much more profitable thing to do.

I'd rather push 27o from the SB then push with 77 UTG.

[fergus8]

I'd rather push 27o from the SB then push with 77 UTG.

 

[Dubai]

I'd rather push 27o from the SB then push with 77 UTG.

 

Yeah no one will think you are stealing if u push from the SB.

[GlasgowBandit]

[quote ]author=fergus8 link=topic=13748.msg285777#msg285777 date=1156181905]

I'd rather push 27o from the SB then push with 77 UTG.

 
[/quote]

I would never ever consider pushing with 7/2 off from any position. 

I  don't think i would push from UTG neither with 77 i would be more inclined to see a flop and push after the flop as long as there weren't any picture cards.

[Dale]

I'd rather push 27o from the SB then push with 77 UTG.

 

Yeah no one will think you are stealing if u push from the SB.

That's not the point. Even if the BB think you've pushed blind their correct calling range is way tight at one of these bubble situations.
Sure they can make a loose call with a hand that has a 50% chance of winning against your range of any 2 cards (Q7? computer hand) but it will be not only be bad for you if they do so but it will also be bad for them and +ev for everyone else at the table, they increase their equity in the tournament when one of you gets knocked out !

(Bare in mind that I'm talking about pushing from the SB when everyone has folded to you.)

Pushing 72o from the SB in this situation is very very profitable unless you know for a fact that BB is too loose a caller.

Don't think about "pushing 72o" as "pushing a bad hand" but think of it as making the correct move based on fold equity and the theory of the independant chip model.

[Dale]

I  don't think i would push from UTG neither with 77 i would be more inclined to see a flop and push after the flop as long as there weren't any picture cards.

How are you going to see a flop though with only 6 big blinds? Any type of raise here is a bad move, you're better off going all in. You can limp for 1/6th your stack but what do you do if someone pushes behind you, call knowing youre hoping for a coinflip at best to stay alive? what happens if the SB completes and the BB checks? There are almost always going to a couple of overcards on the board and you can't put the SB or BB on a hand at all.

The point is that the hero is in push/fold mode and has to make his plays based on the stuff I've described above. That's where the skill element comes into playing a bubble situation where stacks are averaging 6-8 BBs, forget about postflop all together.

[JungleCat03]

You'll be blinded out waiting for a better opportunity than this.

You have 6 BBs, a reasonable hand albeit in dire position, but you have one thing available to you that will very shortly disappear and that's fold equity.

Assigning a calling range of 55+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo to the table, you have 46% equity vs this range. Against a tighter table the range will narrow, looser it will widen. So IF you get called, it's +ev in straight chip terms(with the overlay provided by the blinds) . Factor in fold equity and you make chips with this move. When you are shortstacked, it's very rarely a good idea to pass up +ev.
 
If the payout was exceptionally flat ie a satellite then a fold might well be correct given the situation of 3 shorter stacks and 5 payouts out of 8. I agree the flatter the structure the less value there is in pushing but it has to be very flat before folding a decent hand when you are so short becomes correct.

As it is the chips go in in a good spot 43% equity in a 3 way pot. I'll take that everyday with 6 big blinds!

[Wardonkey]

I push.

[Junior Senior]

all-in - correct play here. - your UTG so your about to pay the blinds and move down to 3600. - that is too low.  Its now or never baby.

[Graham C]

I don't quite understand the other stack sizes. Two have less than a thousand, two more on a thousand? If that's the case, I'd fold 77 and hang on in there waiting to get another round in before things get desperate and look forward to 3 of them being knocked out before me.

If you were the short stack then it's different and I'd have pushed.