All in as 80:20 favourite - a mistake?

[Bongo]

Excuse the melodramatic title I hoped it would gather some interest.

Here's enough details on the hand to illustrate my point:

$0.5/$1 NLHE 10 seater

- Bongo sitting UTG+1 with $96.83
- Foe sitting CO with $68.12

** Dealing card to Bongo

Bongo called - $1.00
X called - $1.00
Foe raised - $4.00
Bongo called - $4.00
X Passed

** Dealing the flop: 
Bongo checked
Foe bet - $2.00
Bongo called - $2.00

** Dealing the turn: 
Bongo checked
Foe bet - $12.00
Bongooo raised - $60.00
3drawmcgraw went all-in - $50.12
Bongooo called - $62.12

** Dealing the river: 
Foe shows: 
Bongooo mucks: 
Foe wins $135.74 from the main pot

Now I'd playing a pretty experimental game and was having a lot of fun and mixing it up, taking down pots with unlikely holdings and having fun in the chat box. My chip stack had been up and down a bit but as I had yet to have any form of big hand I wasn't concerned - I knew I just had to find one and I should be able to get paid nicely! I limped and called the raise preflop to try and keep up the image i had created but obviously hoping to hit a big hand. On the flop he bets very small, which is suspicious, but with a decent draw to the nuts I gladly call.

I hit on the turn and now have the nuts. I check to him and he bets big. I am absolutely certain he has 3 Queens and put in the big raise as i am sure, i'm rubbing my hands with glee thinking i'm going to win a big pot!

Then the river comes and outdraws me and ships the pot to him.

So I was thinking could I have played the hand differently? what if I just call the turn?
If the board pairs I can get away from the hand and lose a lot less. Surely that is a good point.
I can see downsides - if my read is wrong I could be making a mistake and the river may scare him off.

As he has 3 queens he will usually be happy to put his chips in the pot on the river too so I cab still get paid (as opposed to a flush draw where the only chips being put in would be on a bluff).
Cards that could scare him:
A 3rd spade appearing - he might think i have a flush and so be wary of playing a big pot. 11/44 cards - 25% of the time.
Straightening cards may also scare him and there are lots of these?

Do you think there is any merit to calling and making the move on the river?
Would this be different if the board was a rainbow (or the flop was, as runner runner flush is less scary!)?
How certain of your read would you have to be to play this way?

Am I just trying to over analyse things?

[Enzyme_]

nah i would still have pushed all in hes got very little odds at that point so ur going get paid more than u lose so easy push imo

[nirvana]

Trying to over anyalyse - yes I think so. All in the middle at the right time and got unlucky. Perhaps if both of you were very much deeper stacked then you could maybe find a rationale to wait for the river but I don't think so even then.

[snoopy1239]

You were outdrawn, that's all. Unlucky.

[Bongo]

You were outdrawn, that's all. Unlucky.

I thought that but having such a strong read on him I was wondering if i should use it more constuctively rather than just using it to get all in with the nuts!

It's not often I have such I read so I wasn't sure... My reading skills are improving very nicely though so at least I have that

[snoopy1239]

I was wondering if i should use it more constuctively rather than just using it to get all in with the nuts!

You can't ask for much more.

[Bongo]

Doesn't Caro say though "A dollar not lost is the same as a dollar won"?

So surely if you can minimise loses the times you get outdrawn without lowering your gains then it must be a good thing?

I'm not saying i made a bad play, more that maybe this play could have a higher EV and less variance?

[NoflopsHomer]

Doesn't Caro say though "A dollar not lost is the same as a dollar won"?

So surely if you can minimise loses the times you get outdrawn without lowering your gains then it must be a good thing?

I'm not saying i made a bad play, more that maybe this play could have a higher EV and less variance?

You're not going to win as much though.

[Bongo]

I guess that is what I was asking the opinions of?

Don't you think 3 queens will put it's stack in on most rivers? A spade might scare them off but they'll probably call a reasonable bet?

Maybe I need to do some maths on this and satisfy myself

[snoopy1239]

I understand what you are saying, and in some cases it makes sense, but not here because:

- how sure can you actually be that he has a hand as strong as top set?
- how do you know he'll stick all his chips in if a spade hits the river?
- you're too big a favourite for you to worry about saving chips if a full house comes
- you might be bet off the river if a spade comes
- playing hands as slow as that isn't too good for your table image and will make it difficult for future hands to be paid off
- you won't necessarily win his whole stack

Finally, what has Caro won recently and what year did he make that comment?

[LeKnave]

I can see your reasoning here, but the question is...

If the board pair and he pushes all in, are you going to lay it down?

[NoflopsHomer]

I understand what you are saying, and in some cases it makes sense, but not here because:

- how sure can you actually be that he has a hand as strong as top set?
- how do you know he'll stick all his chips in if a spade hits the river?
- you're too big a favourite for you to worry about saving chips if a full house comes
- you might be bet off the river if a spade comes
- playing hands as slow as that isn't too good for your table image and will make it difficult for future hands to be paid off
- you won't necessarily win his whole stack

Finally, what has Caro won recently and what year did he make that comment?

 

[boldie]

I understand what you are saying, and in some cases it makes sense, but not here because:

- how sure can you actually be that he has a hand as strong as top set?
- how do you know he'll stick all his chips in if a spade hits the river?
- you're too big a favourite for you to worry about saving chips if a full house comes
- you might be bet off the river if a spade comes
- playing hands as slow as that isn't too good for your table image and will make it difficult for future hands to be paid off
- you won't necessarily win his whole stack

Finally, what has Caro won recently and what year did he make that comment?

 

indeed...crickey you have the nuts when he sticks in a big bet...what more can you ask for? you got outdrawn..it happens..

[Bongo]

No, I stuck in a big bet and was wondering if I should take some time to consider alternate plays in the future.

If he had stuck a big bet in i'd gladly be shoving my chips in and think nothing more of it.

[Bongo]

As to what Caro has won recently - I don't know, he could be cleaning up cash games and we'd never know.

It is true though - if I lose $1 less in one hand or win $1 more in another the outcome is the same - I have an extra dollar.

In this case I think that you're all right - I can't be 100% sure he has 3 queens so I might make a mistake on the river and give him chips when behind (if the board pairs or if i have read him wrong and he makes a flush) or I might not get so much out of him on the river and so lose out that way. All in all it's probably more of a risk than lumping it in...

If I was 100% sure he had 3 queens and 100% sure he'd shove his chips in whatever the river then I should call and wait for the river. I never can be that sure though of both though!