Stars SnG...what do I do?

[Canuck]

PokerStars Game #6343306741: Tournament #32180994, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2006/09/19 - 14:24:49 (ET)
Table '32180994 1' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Pocket Pup (4470 in chips)
Seat 3: Knightsridge (3135 in chips)
Seat 5: beano dickie (400 in chips)
Seat 9: Soda Popnski (5495 in chips)
Pocket Pup: posts the ante 25
Knightsridge: posts the ante 25
beano dickie: posts the ante 25
Soda Popnski: posts the ante 25
Pocket Pup: posts small blind 100
Knightsridge: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Knightsridge [ ]
beano dickie: folds
Soda Popnski: raises 400 to 600
Pocket Pup: folds

He had been playing loose early but had tightened up. He had done this a few times to other players and always had an ace. always. He had just eliminated a few players by his ace holding against KQ, KJ etc

Do I go all in and risk being eliminated with a stack so short who is sure to go out in 2 hands
Flat call and push with no ace on flop
Fold and wait for third (i hope no one says that)

[Royal Flush]

Push.

[Jim-D]

Easy push for me mate.

[NoflopsHomer]

I'd push, but there are perfectly valid arguements for all 3 options in this situation. Certainly if the money was significantly important to you to win, folding is the best choice.

[Hairydude]

easy push for me too- in the long run its the profitable play-even if it means u getting knocked out in 4th in this tourney- you've got to put the decision on him- is he wanting to risk most of his chips with something like AQ or AJ- besides if you win you are looking good to win it

[Jim-D]

I'd push, but there are perfectly valid arguements for all 3 options in this situation. Certainly if the money was significantly important to you to win, folding is the best choice.

If you ever intend to make any $$ in poker then surely you cant ever justify folding this at this stage?

[Canuck]

I'd push, but there are perfectly valid arguements for all 3 options in this situation. Certainly if the money was significantly important to you to win, folding is the best choice.

If you ever intend to make any $$ in poker then surely you cant ever justify folding this at this stage?

I was only curious if anyone would advocate a flat call TBH.

I raised all in after about .3 seconds

He called with AQ....flop brought an ace...King on turn....won it in the end

[Wardonkey]

I push.

[Dale]

I'll give an answer based on ICM.
There are varying opinions on the usefulnes of ICM but in my opinion ICM is >90% of all you need to know about the bubble of an STT.

The $ev here (that is how much your current chipstack relates to in real money) is as such:

Knightsridge: $13
Pocket Pup: $15
Soda Popnski: $16
beano dickie: $2

(ok that adds up to $46 instead of $45 but the above is rounded off)

look at how little equity the shortie has is the tournament, he's rarely going to cash here (unless you gift to him by busting)
look at how much equity you have in the tournament, 260% of your buyin (not counting rake).

I'm going to go a little off course for a moment to talk about the value you your KK being all in against a pair or an ace in this very situation......

Just say you push and he calls you with any pair or any ace.
Or imagine he's actually pushed here and you know for a fact that he either has a pair or an ace and you call him.
Then at that very moment you're in a slightly -ev situation

as if you win:
You double your chips but you only increase the $ev of your stack by 37% from $13 worth to $17 worth.

Knightsridge: $17
Pocket Pup: $14
Soda Popnski: $12
beano dickie: $2

and if you lose:
your stack goes from being worth $13 to $0.

Knightsridge: $0
Pocket Pup: $16
Soda Popnski: $19
beano dickie: $10 (you are this guy's hero right now)


The average $ev of the above..... the times that you win, and the times that you lose, in this situation would be $12.04.
So if he pushes and you can see his hole cards, A6o, folding KK is actually the correct value play as you'd be left with a stack worth $12.36 after surrendering your blind.

That's what makes STTs very different from cash games and that's why you can crush players who don't understand STTs.
A non educated player my just think "I have Kings, He has Ace Six, I have to call... I'll double my chips" - I hope you can see why that sort of thinking is very wrong at an STT bubble. double chips != double $$$$$, not even anywhere close.

Ok so I just wrote the above as food for thought because as the situation stands all he has done is raise 3XBB as the chip leader, on the bubble, with somebody on a microstack.
That's just standard regardless of what he has.
Pushing is certainly the correct thing to do here as he could easily be raising you with any 2 cards and whenever he folds you will gain a slight chiplead and the ability to own the bubble.
If he's raised with any 2 and only calls your push with a range, at its loosest, of 22+ or A2+ then the average $ev of the push is nearer $14.... plus all the advantages of being able to own the bubble when you win or he folds.

So in short. Push here... obviously... but knowing about how much value there is when all the money goes in and you have KK vs Ax is important to know.
Most people are surprised at how little value KK has here when risking all your chips is involved.

HoLLa!~