World Series Main Event - Paul Wasicka decision

[totalise]

Sitting in my armchair at home, Id never fold this in a million years... at the table, I dont know if I would have called. Its tempting to fold and hope the other guy gets knocked out. The correct play in terms of EV and anything else is to get the money in, and I dont think its even a close decision, but if I were actually in that spot, I suspect (and I wish it weren't true) that I would fold as well.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Link to Wasicka's blog where he talks about the hand:

http://kwickfish.blogspot.com/2006/11/final-table-10000-main-event.html

[Wardonkey]

I see he doesn't believe in paragraphs...

[Horneris]

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

[AndrewT]

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

Possibly, but at this stage of the tournament (with $4m already pocketed) the extra $2m for 2nd place isn't really that big a deal - the value in this hand is it's a great shot at getting close enough to Gold to be able to pressure for the win.

[boldie]

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

I agree...There is merit to his fold..but maybe I'm just not a good enough player to make it..I dunno. I love to see people move in in a pot where I have that hand. And if I was already guaranteed 4mill my chips would have been flying in to win that puppy.

[moritzey]

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

Possibly, but at this stage of the tournament (with $4m already pocketed) the extra $2m for 2nd place isn't really that big a deal - the value in this hand is it's a great shot at getting close enough to Gold to be able to pressure for the win.

I can't really agree with that. Even if you're guaranteed $4 MM, surely an extra two million still makes a huge difference. If Wasicka put Gold on a flush draw, which I suppose is quite likely, then his OESFD wouldn't look so cool anymore. So why not sit back, hope for Gold to win that hand (assuming it's a flush draw, he's got about 38%), and then start picking at his stack.

I think I'd much rather be a 10-1 dog heads-up than out in third (even if I gave it a shot at only being a 5-1 dog heads-up) ... he needed to get lucky against Gold a couple of times anyway to get an equal footing in chipsize, so why not wait wth those coinflips until you're guaranteed an extra $2 MM?

[Wardonkey]

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

Possibly, but at this stage of the tournament (with $4m already pocketed) the extra $2m for 2nd place isn't really that big a deal - the value in this hand is it's a great shot at getting close enough to Gold to be able to pressure for the win.

I can't really agree with that. Even if you're guaranteed $4 MM, surely an extra two million still makes a huge difference. If Wasicka put Gold on a flush draw, which I suppose is quite likely, then his OESFD wouldn't look so cool anymore. So why not sit back, hope for Gold to win that hand (assuming it's a flush draw, he's got about 38%), and then start picking at his stack.

I think I'd much rather be a 10-1 dog heads-up than out in third (even if I gave it a shot at only being a 5-1 dog heads-up) ... he needed to get lucky against Gold a couple of times anyway to get an equal footing in chipsize, so why not wait wth those coinflips until you're guaranteed an extra $2 MM?

Passing does not guarantee anything. He would have been in 3rd position with only half the chips of Binger if Gold had not hit the straight.

[moritzey]

Well, yes, but rather safe than sorry, no? I mean he would be committing all his chips, he should expect Binger to pass, on what would come down to be an open-ended straight draw, giving him six outs and Gold a redraw. Yes, if they played with open cards, and had he known that Gold was only on a straight draw rather than the flush draw, it's a totally different story, but I don't see how he can call here, when he has to expect to be behind.

Say he has the OESD and Gold had a Fdraw, then he has something like 35% of winning?
Otherwise, he'll fold, Gold has 40% of busting Binger.

So overall if he calls:
35% - he will have doubled up against Gold, a better stab at first place and a fairly gt'd 2nd place - $6m gt'd, with top place paying $12m + another $8 for being champion ($20m), and say he's on a 50/50 to win from here onwards, that's an overall of $13m
65% - he's gone in 3rd - $4m

On average (0.35*13 + 0.65*4) = $7.15 MM

If he folds:
40% - he is heads-up against Gold. $6m gt'd, say he's got 20% to take the title and spoils:
0.8*6 + 0.2*20 = $8.8 MM
60% - not so cool, he's in third with least chips. $4m gt'd, say a 35% stab at $6m and a 15% stab at the whole package?
4*0.5 + 6*0.35 + 20*0.15 = $7.1 MM

That's a total of
0.4 * 8.8 + 0.6 * 7.1 = $7.78 MM

OK, numbers may be disputable, but I think it's fair to say that it is at least a very, very close decision, and if my numbers are anything close to reasonable, the fold is actually correct. You have to keep in mind that Wasicka thought he had a huge edge over both other players remaining and he put Gold on a flush draw. If those two assumptions are incorrect, then yeah, call.

I mean, I know I would have called because I don't have an edge over either of those two, but if Wasicka thought he did, I can understand that fold.

[AndrewT]

Moritzey you are forgetting one thing - this is not just a financial decision. If you win the tournament you are World Champion. People know you as World Champion. Your name goes into a select group of great players (and Varkonyi/Moneymaker) for all time.

That pushes it into a certain call for me.

[maldini32]

i pass it is only 8 high after all....no matter how big a draw...its still a draw.BTW DRAWS DO MISS. Its not like he knew wot gold had. As painful as it was i think wasicka made the right pass. Gold doesnt move in i call, once Gold moves in...no matter wot hes got he can take him out and the was the over riding factor.

[Pab]

He needs to commit himself to the pot by leading out, once he checks, binger bets and gold moves in, he stops thinking about his actual hand but the potential jump in prize money if binger gets eliminated. After checking Id say its probably the right pass given the action, but since he knows gold is capable of shoving almsot any pair/any draw I think he made a cardinal mistake not betting first with such a strong draw and committing himself to the pot

[kinboshi]

Paul - interested to hear your thoughts on Cunnigham's play with the TT.  It's easy when you're watching on telly and can see all the cards and what's gone on before. 

But like I said earlier in the thread, I'm surprised he made that play and went for the gamble when he was confident he was the best player at the table.

[maldini32]

the TT hand cunningham moved in to pick the chips up in the middle...it went raise...flat call..and cunningham pushed, he knew it was the best hand then and wanted to pick the pot there are then, but Gold decided he fancied a gamble as he felt that was the only way he could beat cunningham. When Gold called, u could hear Cunningham say he felt sick by Golds call! So i dont think Cunningham wanted to gamble, it was more a dodgy call by Gold and he found himself in the best possible spot 50/50! sorry if that didnt make sense.

[kinboshi]

the TT hand cunningham moved in to pick the chips up in the middle...it went raise...flat call..and cunningham pushed, he knew it was the best hand then and wanted to pick the pot there are then, but Gold decided he fancied a gamble as he felt that was the only way he could beat cunningham. When Gold called, u could hear Cunningham say he felt sick by Golds call! So i dont think Cunningham wanted to gamble, it was more a dodgy call by Gold and he found himself in the best possible spot 50/50! sorry if that didnt make sense.

I don't disagree, but with the size of Cunnigham's chip-stack compared to Gold's, he wasn't going to lay it down (if he had half a hand, and I guess that KJ is pushing the boundaries of 'half a hand').  Gold has to be happier with a 'race' as it negates the skill of Cunningham - who I thought would have wanted to avoid such a situation.  Of course, like I said, it's easy when you can see all the cards, and who am I to question Cunningham?

It's an interesting hand nevertheless, and despite the stick Gold has received from many quarters, and I know he had more than his fair share of luck, he still had the other players rattled.