Hand History Mystery!

[MadYank]

Ok this be part one of a Live NLHE Pokah Hand. I will setup the hand and give you the initial action and then ask you what you would do and WHY. After sufficent analysis/replies I will then tell you what action I took and move on to the next action in a follow-on post.

The scene of da crime(hand):
It's The Tropicana in Atlantic City. I've just been moved, along with 2 other players from a broken $2-$5 NLHE cash game ($500 cap sitdown) to fill the remaining table (10 handed).

Important Stack info
MadYank(MY): $1200 (I just whacked a guy with set over set AAA vs QQQ)
Rock Solid (RS): $1300 (Sat directly to my left. He just wiped out 2 donks getting them BOTH to call their whole stacks with one pair, when he flopped the nutflush)
Crazy Chinese Kid (CCK): $950
Rest of Table Avg Guys (ROTAG): $900

Position
SB : ROTAG
BB : ROTAG
UTG : CCK
EP1 : ROTAG
EP2 : ROTAG
MP1: MY
MP2 : RS
HiJack : ROTAG
CutOff : ROTAG
Button : ROTAG

Preflop
CCK UTG raise to $25.
He has been doing his almost every other hand from whatever position. His strategy seems to be to build bigger pots so that he can bluff big on multiple streets trying to steal pots from the scared players.

EP1, EP2 both Fold

MY reraise to $75 with    
Had enough of CCK and I'm trying to isolate him and his insanity fom the rest of the table. I'm fancy myself a good enough hand reader to play it it improved or unimproved against CCK.

RS call $75
Thought for about 3 seconds then called, so not an instacall but deffinitely a confident one.

Hijack call $75

CutOff call $75

Button, SB, BB Fold

CCK UTG call the xtra $50

Flop:     ($382 in the pot)

CCK checks

MY bets $90
This amout seems small and strange compared with the pot but is common for this type of live game. I am betting for value, but also accomplishing 2 things. 1st, I find out if RS has a hiding monster behind me and if not then I may induce CCK to make a daft steal attempt sensing weakness in my continuation bet.

RS instacalls $90

HiJack, CutOff, and CCK Fold.

Turn      ($562 in the pot)

You are MY:
What do you do now?
Why?
What range of hands do you put RS on?

[M3boy]

Insta call - my first thought would be KK or a set

Thinking about it a little more, set is unlikely, and a RS player is likely to raise with a set here rather than flat call. Also RS would re raise with KK preflop I think.

AQ/AJ are my favorite picks here.

Now, what would I do?

I would be inclined to check/raise him. I am fairly confident I am ahead here

[NoflopsHomer]

I'd check-call on the turn here, I think we are either way ahead of another ace or way behind a set that has now housed up, plus with the 2nd A coming on the turn makes it less likely he has the case ace.

[Bongo]

I call the floor as the deck has 5 aces.

[doubleup]

Assuming this is a solid winning player, he likely has a drawing hand i.e connector or pair, AK might be possible pre flop, but he would have raised with that on the flop surely.

I think he would probably have raised a bit on the flop with a set to drive out drawing hands, but maybe decided to take the risk on the rainbow board.  More likely he has 56s or T9s.

So I think you have the classic nl turn problem - do you give a free card to a draw because you fear a set- or bet out and take the risk of being stacked or bluffed....

I think I would check/check check/call the turn.  If the river is a card that would make the str8 I'm finished with the hand.

[MadYank]

OK good analysis so far. I await The Great White Muppet's decision before I proceed with the story.

[Smart Money]

I would be concerned with him having a set. With such deep stacks, he'd been getting good value pre-flop to call your re-raise with any pair.

If he's "rock solid" then he not calling 15xBB re-raise with any hand with an Ace except AK.

I certainly wouldn't be over confident here. I'd probably check/call turn, then bet out on river and fold to a decent sized raise.

[MadYank]

OK PART TWO of the EQUATION

On the Turn I check (For reasons I'll describe later)

RS Checks behind and we advance to the river...


River  ($562 in the pot)

You are MY now.

What's your plan to extract as much value on the river given te aforementioned action and what is your revised hand range for RS given his turn check?

[NoflopsHomer]

OK PART TWO of the EQUATION

On the Turn I check (For reasons I'll describe later)

RS Checks behind and we advance to the river...


River  ($562 in the pot)

You are MY now.

What's your plan to extract as much value on the river given te aforementioned action and what is your revised hand range for RS given his turn check?

Wow, he checked? Ok he doesn't have a set then, so we now have the nuts, what could he have?

In that case, he has either T9s, 65s or a pocket pair KK-JJ. We might not totally discount 88 or 77 checking for deception purposes and he may have played AQ or AJ cautiously.

Because of the probabilities that betting here will scare the draws away and pocket pairs away whilst 88 and 77 will end up getting most of their money in anyway. Therefore I recommend checking and allowing possible draws to bluff at us, an AQ or AJ to value bet or even a high two pair. If he was a good enough player to try and take the pot away from us, I'd try a weak blocker type bet in the hope he raises.

[Royal Flush]

He's a rock, he is either calling a bet or not, the size is irrelevant. Given that and his rocky playing style it should be a push here, he may have AQ or even if we are lucky KK, a set is also possible.

[M3boy]

Just move all in - either he calls or he doesnt.

Agree with James, size is irrelevant, if he is gonna call $200 he will call for all his chips

ALL IN

[doubleup]

I'll stick with my original assessment of his hand range and check to induce a bluff.  Also in the unlikely event he has KK, he might bet.

[MadYank]

So I decide to bet $140 to make it look like I was semibluff CBing the flop and get him to come over the top with either a strong hand or an attempt to steal the pot given that I have shown SO MUCH weakness this hand.

He thinks for 2 minutes then announces "RAISE!" 

He raises to $340.

I think for 2 minutes (Giving my best under pressure look) and limit reraise.

He instapushes and I call.

Now with all this additional info, what hand does he show?

[matt674]

1st guess:  

2nd guess: 

3rd guess:   

If it were flushy playing: 

[temp0r]

pretty sure he turns over  and moans about the shocking river. he probably puts you on  given your play no?

gutted on you yank that i play this the exact same way as you. i guess that makes you a crap as me now.