Is it alot more LUCK than skill........yesterdays M.E at Luton.

[Slick Kid]

Firstly, this is not a post to have a dig at anyone, but more a post to get peoples thoughts on something that has probably been discussed many times before, so please forgive me if it bores you. ( FLUSHY lol )

Luton held another successful Festival this week with many good players attending. Also there were many new faces there who surprised alot of the regulars with there solid and unusual plays. One new bloke who l had not seen at festivals before was a guy called Pep (don't ask me to say his real name) from Northampton who played some good solid poker and if he continues to target these bigger events l believe he will get a few good results. One of the regulars that l have to give a mention to is Carlo Citrone, this man just keeps on going everywhere to all comps and takes his beats and wins with the same grace, he really is a credit to poker, a real gentleman. Other names in attendance this week were regulars Tikay, Mickey Wernick, JP, Stu Nash, Tighty, Red Dog, YoYo, Mick Fletcher, Jon Hewston, Tino, Tony Chapman, The Hit Squad, Paul King, Ian Woodley, James Browning, Des Jonas, Chandra, Lalit, Rob Garfield and Joe Grech. One final mention is for Fran (LittlemissC) who ran really deep in the £250, which had a tough field, well done Fran, great effort.

Well now for the thread title. The winner of the main event was a nice guy and a big congratulations to him for a great win. I sat with Mehmet for the first 5 hours of this comp and about 6 times l watched him make suicidal calls with one pair. I remember saying to myself l will have his chips before l leave this table. I tried to target him every time he was in a pot and my big opportunity came when the binds were 100/200. He flat called UTG and then there was a raise on my right to 600 (guy was raising every pot), so l called with       on the button. SB folds, BB calls.

The FLOP comes          


BB checks and Mehmet bets 2000, the raiser calls and the value there and chips l call hoping for a 9, BB folds.


The Turn comes   


Mehmet bets 2000, leaving 3700 behind. The original raiser folds, l dwell and put Mehmet all in with a bit of speech play, HE CALLS INSTANTLY.


HE TURNS OVER          I'm not surprised believe it or not having seen his cards and calls earlier in the game.


The River comes   


SPLIT POT.


Now all l'm asking is how does Mehmet go on and win, not because of the lucky King but how does he make this call with second pair. It would be interesting to know if he made any similar calls later in the comp. But there is doubt that Mehmet was extremely lucky in alot of early pots. Was it just his day? God Bless him, he was a nice fella but a lucky basket. I was sick about my exit but once again l had my chips in whilst well in front and my opponent who made the final made a lucky river. A big thankyou to the Luton staff who were great.

[Karabiner]

That is exactly why I am sticking to internet poker, good tecnique gets rewarded with good results.

PS

Michael, You say that you "put Mehmet allin and after a bit of speech-play he calls instantly".

I was under the impression that he didn't speak any English.   

[AndrewT]

"Last weekend, in a game with a lot of short term luck, a lucky player won a tournament."

In other news it was revealed today that the Pope wears green and white hooped pyjamas in bed instead of blue ones.

[Slick Kid]

I bearly speak it mate so we where well matched.  

[Slick Kid]

In other news it was revealed today that the Pope wears green and white hooped pyjamas in bed instead of blue ones.

Always knew he followed Celtic, God Bless him.

[MadYank]

Is it a lot more luck than skill

the value there and chips l call hoping for a 9, a gutshot draw on a flushing board

[Dingdell]

I watched part of this final when there were 4 players left until the last 2. I found the play very slow and soft with a lot of checking through to the river.

I think in this instance a keen player hit a lot of good cards (Aces 7 times I believe) and made some interesting calls along the way.

I was never sure if he called all ins and raises thinking he was ahead or if he wanted to gamble, when asked if he wanted to deal he didn't want to - he wanted to play - and who could blame him, he may have had others shaking their heads but he enjoyed every moment.

I think Michael that you played him right, pushing him to make a decision, just don't know if he thought he had much of a decision to make.

As for speech play - I didn't realise you did that - I thought your questions last time we played about my increasing age and the fact that I had allegedly been about a bit were just you taking an interest in me - don't tell me you didn't mean it - i thought we had something going there for a while.....   

[AndrewT]

Is it a lot more luck than skill

the value there and chips l call hoping for a 9, a gutshot draw on a flushing board

Maybe there's a post on a Turkish poker board somewhere laughing at 'this silly Irish guy calling 2000 into a pot of 4500 to hit three outs'

[Slick Kid]

Is it a lot more luck than skill

the value there and chips l call hoping for a 9, a gutshot draw on a flushing board

Maybe there's a post on a Turkish poker board somewhere laughing at 'this silly Irish guy calling 2000 into a pot of 4500 to hit three outs'

Andrew don't really know who you are and really don't want too but the silly Irish guy was well chipped up, the turkish guy was betting  weak and l was intending to make a move whatever came on the turn and if l play my style of poker and am successful with it l don't intend on changing it. You are obviously a successful player with much more live experience than me so forgive my novice play.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

to be honest, i wondered why you was calling on the flop too... I didnt think 2000 into a 2500 pot was neccessarily weak either.

[NoflopsHomer]

I think there are better indicators of Mehmet's luck to be fair. Knocking out Rob Garfield with K-9 against Garfield's A-K on a K-x-x board in a big pot was the most important I think, since imo, Rob was one of the best players still in at that point.  I thought the wheels were coming off when when the final table came along and he did around 230k of his 367k stack quite early on with both Mark Lowe and Ariel Adda, (who I thought were the two most likely to go HU) check/raising him off multiple pots, but he went another card rush, (I believe he had A-A around 8 or 9 times yesterday) and then made a call all-in with versus a re-raise from a player who had been playing pretty tight who had K-K, and managed to spike the ace when 4-handed.

[bobby1]

Is it a lot more luck than skill

the value there and chips l call hoping for a 9, a gutshot draw on a flushing board

Maybe there's a post on a Turkish poker board somewhere laughing at 'this silly Irish guy calling 2000 into a pot of 4500 to hit three outs'

Andrew don't really know who you are and really don't want too but the silly Irish guy was well chipped up, the turkish guy was betting  weak and l was intending to make a move whatever came on the turn and if l play my style of poker and am successful with it l don't intend on changing it. You are obviously a successful player with much more live experience than me so forgive my novice play.

hello Mick, I enjoy your blog sir.

I would likle to make a comment on this hand. I don't understand you calling the flop bet at all, The guy has less than 6k left after his flop bet so even if you hit you are not getting the correct value to call. As Yank says you may only have three outs in that spot so surely this is a pass.

I'm also confused by the your comment that he was betting weak, he has bet the pot, and that you were going to make a move on him on the turn as you have passed comment that he was calling all kinds of bets. Surely this guy is not the guy to be making a move on when he has put 2600 out of an 8k stack in the middle and has shown he is likey to call.

[ripple11]

As for speech play - I didn't realise you did that - I thought your questions last time we played about my increasing age and the fact that I had allegedly been about a bit were just you taking an interest in me - don't tell me you didn't mean it - i thought we had something going there for a while.....   

...having never played Mick, I too had the pleasure of some of his complimentary speech play at Luton.
  
 Makes it even more sweet when you push him off two pots heads up and then move tables
 
 

[Slick Kid]

I think there are better indicators of Mehmet's luck to be fair. Knocking out Rob Garfield with K-9 against Garfield's A-K on a K-x-x board in a big pot was the most important I think, since imo, Rob was one of the best players still in at that point.  I thought the wheels were coming off when when the final table came along and he did around 230k of his 367k stack quite early on with both Mark Lowe and Ariel Adda, (who I thought were the two most likely to go HU) check/raising him off multiple pots, but he went another card rush, (I believe he had A-A around 8 or 9 times yesterday) and then made a call all-in with versus a re-raise from a player who had been playing pretty tight who had K-K, and managed to spike the ace when 4-handed.

I think if the hand with Rob Garfield is explained in FULL by Floppy you will understand why l called the flop bet.

[AndrewT]

Andrew don't really know who you are and really don't want too but the silly Irish guy was well chipped up, the turkish guy was betting  weak and l was intending to make a move whatever came on the turn and if l play my style of poker and am successful with it l don't intend on changing it. You are obviously a successful player with much more live experience than me so forgive my novice play.

Allow me to introduce myself then.

I'm very much an amateur player who, whilst having some success, is always wanting to learn more about how the best players play. I am fully aware of things like pot odds and implied odds, playing the player not the cards, and making moves when the situation is right. When I see hands by people with far more experience than me I like to analyse their play and see what I can learn.

On first glance, in this hand you called 2000 into a pot of 4500 against two players with four, maybe only three, outs to the low end of a straight. The player you are targeting only has 5700 more chips you can take off him. If you don't catch your nine, then it is highly likely that Mehmet will bet again, seeing as he bet into two players on the flop, one of whom was the pre-flop raiser. This will leave him with not very much back in relation to the pot size. Even if he checks to you and you make a move you've already noted that he has big trouble laying one pair down. A player who bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop has probably hit the flop in some way, wouldn't you say, making it likely he'd call your bet?

All this analysis completely ignores the pre-flop raiser, who was also in the hand when you'd made your call, and could also have caused trouble for you.

Now you say you would make a move on the turn - my inferior analysis has suggested this was highly unlikely to work. You say you were chipped up - perhaps you could tell us how the apparant lack of edge you have in this situation is more than compensated by your chip stack?

My novice little brain is obviously not capable of thinking to a level deep enough to fully comprehend the depth of advanced play on display in this hand and, in my quest to become a better player, I ask if you would be so kind as to deign us with the wisdom you have and enlighten us as to the subtle, delicate, one might say imperceptible, thought processes you went through.

I hope we can be friends and, maybe, one day, you might permit me to teach you a couple of things about not taking every perceived slight on an internet messageboard so frigging seriously.