River decision after loose call in the BB

[doubleup]

Opponent is quite loose VP 30% but not that aggressive 8% PFR




Seat 1: puttethekid ($1142.90 in chips)
Seat 2: LordJedi ($347.70 in chips)
Seat 3: davmcg ($400 in chips)
Seat 4: Elected ($450.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Sundevils21 ($336 in chips)
Seat 6: keeplosing ($410.80 in chips)
Seat 7: jprob1482 ($454.25 in chips)
Seat 8: Wyse ($422 in chips)
Seat 9: bentjuh ($95 in chips)
LordJedi: posts small blind $2
davmcg: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to davmcg [ ]
Elected: folds
Sundevils21: folds
keeplosing: folds
jprob1482: folds
Wyse: folds
bentjuh: folds
puttethekid: raises $12 to $16
LordJedi: folds
davmcg: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [ ]
davmcg: checks
puttethekid: bets $22
davmcg: calls $22
*** TURN *** [ ] []
davmcg: checks
puttethekid: bets $52
davmcg: raises $64 to $116
puttethekid: calls $64
*** RIVER *** [ ] []


The turn c/r was a bit aggressive but I've hit a good river, should I bet it?

I only get called when I'm beaten, but I think I'm still ahead and I'd rather not show down my hand.  Also there might be an occasion when I'm bluffing in the future, so betting the river when ahead is cover for that.

If I check I can't see him bluffing, so I just give him and the whole table free info.

[Highstack]

You know better than us if the villain was a serial button raiser. If he was, then I would be more inclined to play back at him rather than call, otherwise I pass QJ in the bb to a 4bb bet.

Having hit the flop, I would probably have led out and still passed to strength, I have no idea where I am in this hand. Ch-raise on the turn is aggressive, but it has slowed hiom down. He has called so has something and is worried about a set or 2 pair. I guess he has something like AJ. The question to ask yourself is if he does have AJ, can I push him off on the river. If the answer is yes he is capable of passing, the next decision is how myuch to bet and looking at his stack, it would probably require setting your whole stack in. Do you really want to play $400 on top pair Q kicker unless you are 100% he will pass?

[Royal Flush]

Do you really want to play $400 on top pair Q kicker unless you are 100% he will pass?

[doubleup]

I guess he has something like AJ.

I think AK/AQ/KQ are more likely - maybe even at a stretch AT.

If I bet the river I don't think I'm bluffing.

[Highstack]

My opening gambit was "you know him best".

The pot is already $308 and you only have around $250 back. If you think he is more likely to have one of the hands you say then you must check.

If you bet then you can't bet less than $100 and doesn't leave him enough to bluff at you so you don't get paid. He knows the only way that he can take the pot is with a bluff, so you must check it to him and let him hang himself.

If he has gone that far on one of the hands you say then why did you call pre? Were you sure that he would miss and bluff at the pot?

[doubleup]

My opening gambit was "you know him best".

The pot is already $308 and you only have around $250 back. If you think he is more likely to have one of the hands you say then you must check.

If you bet then you can't bet less than $100 and doesn't leave him enough to bluff at you so you don't get paid. He knows the only way that he can take the pot is with a bluff, so you must check it to him and let him hang himself.

If he has gone that far on one of the hands you say then why did you call pre? Were you sure that he would miss and bluff at the pot?

I've realised that the games on Stars are only beatable by pushing the bounds against the looser players hence the way I played the hand.  Not at all confident it was good play.

I put him on AK/AQ/KQ as these are the main hands that would bet turn and call the turn raise.  AJ would tend check the turn in the hope of picking of a bluff (or a value bet from QJ lol) on the river.

The main issue I'm trying to get opinions on is whether betting the river has a place in overall strategy. Betting with weak hands allows you to bluff more and if called with a hand like this hopefully get paid by calls from weaker hands in the future.

[totalise]

betting the river in similiar spots lets you control the turn a lot better because obviously if people see you are willing to blast into rivers with marginal hands, they are less likely to even see rivers because they are worried about facing bets on the turn AND the river, because they will have no real idea what your turn/river play really means, as long as you are consistent,  if that makes sense.

Saying all that, I donno if your read is all that good here, people will pllay hands like AJ/AA/KK/KJ like this as well, controlling pots and letting you bluff into them on the river, because theres no real value in then 3-betting the turn.

If you are committing to stick chips in on the river, its a great spot to put in a weak-lead, like $40, if you check they might easily see it as a check/call snap off a bluff move, but if you lead weak, they can all of a sudden see a way of winning the pot  (by jamming) because it looks so weak. Obviously you dont know if its a bluff or a value-bet if they DO jam, but if your chips are gonna be getting in the middle somehow, this is prolly the way that maximizes your equity, esp against aggro tard plus tard players, and you get a little bit of value if they have a second best made hand that they would check behind if you checked (like 1010/88/99 etc)

[Smart Money]

I'd check/call or check/fold on the river.

No need to think about massive bluffs in 9-handed cash- it'll cost you long-term.

I'd say you're almost certainly behind to a better jack, or an over-pair.

[doubleup]

I'd check/call or check/fold on the river.

No need to think about massive bluffs in 9-handed cash- it'll cost you long-term.

I'd say you're almost certainly behind to a better jack, or an over-pair.

Perhaps this wasn't the best hand to try what I did, but I do think that I have to find a way to maximise my returns from the loose players.

If one river bluff or bad value bet leads to two river calls when ahead it's worth the investment.

[Smart Money]

To maximise from your typical loose player (i.e. calling station that only raises/bets out big with a strong hand), I would keep all pots with marginal holdings as small as possible, and exploit him with the big hands.