What's your move?

[Royal Flush]

Seat 1: Jam120555 (1040 in chips)
Seat 2: Mrbeani (2895 in chips)
Seat 3: Flushy (4100 in chips)
Seat 4: Fabien12 (1875 in chips)
Seat 5: Sajama (1430 in chips)
Seat 6: Jungleste (1375 in chips)
Seat 7: Spidder (4585 in chips)
Seat 8: Xxsexyxx (1620 in chips)
Seat 9: Idp047 (2190 in chips)
Seat 10: Johan$1 (680 in chips)
Jam120555: posts small blind 50
Mrbeani: posts big blind 100
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Flushy [ As]
Flushy: raises to 300
Fabien12: folds
Sajama: folds
Jungleste: folds
Spidder: folds
Xxsexyxx: folds
Idp047: calls 300
Johan$1: folds
Jam120555: raises to 500
Mrbeani: folds
Flushy:

[doubleup]

Hmmm what a plonker

I make it 1200 - fold to a push.

If he calls I think I'm entitled to look at the flop before deciding what to do.

It's very tempting to call and see the flop with our nice AQ, but in truth there aren't many flops that are any good 3 way, so I'd rather take down a nice little pot or lose 900 more and be done with it.

[ChipRich]

Probably just put him all in. The guy thats re-raising has only 1k total, other guy in pot cant be too strong he would have re raised with any big hand

[bhoywonder]

call

check the texture of the flop and play from there


he may have a mid to high pp.JJ tops

if u hit ace or queen u may induce a bet

[tantrum]

the guy will most likely push it on the flop regardless.  there is another one in the pot, but u have odds to call. without any info on the players it is a guessing game.  so you either flat call it and see the flop or fold it.  depending on the players i might push it if i know I am against a total donk.

[NoflopsHomer]

Nope, that's why I deleted my message.

[tantrum]

i deleted mine then

[NoflopsHomer]

i deleted mine then

So these three messages look confusing then?

[Royal Flush]

I was curious if anyone would deviate off what i am pretty sure is the obvious course (the push)

[NoflopsHomer]

I was curious if anyone would deviate off what i am pretty sure is the obvious course (the push)

It is a push or fold. I just don't know what you're ahead of here, plus you've got an edge over most of these players which should save you donking off 1k chips here with AQo to what is most likely AA or KK.

[JungleCat03]

A guy who can't hurt you has offered you the opportunity to reraise and isolate the hand to generate an overlaid pot with most liekly the best hand. Take it and push.

[Longy]

I Shove readless as the odds your are getting are too good 700 more to win 1400 given that he calls the push which is pretty certain and any fold equity is good but must be about 0.

His range to make this pass has to be ak jj+ which is probably too tight for most MTT donks.

[ItsMrAlex2u]

Fold

[JungleCat03]

I'm not sure why so many people think this is a fold! A guy with 10 BBs has reraised you. AQ is always going to perform well against a shortstack's range. Take into account the fact that he can't come near to busting you and this is v playable. Not wanting to take AQ HU against a guy with 10 BBs in an overlaid pot is very risk averse imo.

He min raised?? Big wow.

Shortstacks often have issues, maybe he was recently moved to the BB.....

So you're ok with the limper. The issue is only complicated by the flat caller, but I'd say he folds >90% of the time if u push. When you're called 5% you're in a race 5% he's slowplaying a big pair/AK. Anyone disagree with these sorts of numbers? If anything i think the fold % for the flat caller will be greater than 90%.

So by pushing you get it heads up in an overlaid pot with a shortstack who can't critically damage your stack.

You'll be putting another 740 chips into a pot that will be worth 300+300+100+500+740+540= 2480 chips.

Ok, in the doomsday scenario, let's put the shortstack on a range of just aces or kings. A laughably tight range but this is worst case scenario. Obviously your AQ doesn't perform great against this range and you have just 21.228% equity. So you average out 526 chips back out of the 740 u put in. Not great but not disastrous. The overlay in the pot mitigates your losses and makes this a smaller losing play than otherwise it would be. But..... a losing play and if you knew with certainty he had AA or KK here you'd probably fold, although metagame considerations could justify a call here, despite it being a losing play on the face of it.

THAT'S WHEN HE ONLY HAS AA OR KK!!!

Let's be more realistic and put him on a still very tight range of TT+,AQ+. Still way too tight i would say but let's go with it. Here your AQ has 33.28% equity against this range. Same pot numbers as above. Now you average back 825 chips out of the 740 u put in. YAY, a winning play, even given an overly tight range. If you're suprised you profit from a hand with just 33.28% equity well that's the pot overlay kicking in again.

Ok, we've looked at the doomsday scenario, let's look at an optimistic but not entirely unrealistic scenario for a desperate shortstack. He's decided to play anything reasonable, and give himself a bullet to fire on the flop by min raising.

Any pair, any ace, any reasonable paint, suited connectors 87 up.  22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo. Ok, now you've got 60.57% equity.

A juicy average return of 1501 chips on the 740 you've invested. Yum.

The true figure almost certainly lies between this loose-ish range and the overly tight range in the 2nd scenario. Both are winning plays though, with tournament survival not really needing to be factored into the equation( a small adjustment should be made for the tiny % of time the flat caller calls your push but i can't be arsed. It won't change the figures much)

Easy push no?

[Highstack]

Min reraisers should be castrated.