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Poker Hand Analysis
SNG Bubble
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Topic: SNG Bubble (Read 1706 times)
Tragic
Sr. Member
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Posts: 625
SNG Bubble
«
on:
February 23, 2007, 11:12:27 AM »
I don't have the hand history but this was a real hand I played a while ago which really left me thinking. This was a Sixpak on Crypto and so the prize pool is very top heavy. 45£ to 1st, 15£ to 2nd. 3 of us left
Chipleader is the button and has 3200 chips
Shortstack is the small blind for 200 and has 100 chips back
I am the big blind for 400 and have 2100 back
Dealt to me
Chipleader is first to act and moves all in......
SB Folds.
What's your move? Go for the win or virtually ensure 2nd place with a 2to1 chip disadvantage going heads up? If you do think this is an auto call, what range of hands does this extend to?
«
Last Edit: February 23, 2007, 12:00:14 PM by Tragic
»
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matt674
Hero Member
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Posts: 10250
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #1 on:
February 23, 2007, 11:19:36 AM »
Did the short stack call for their remaining 100?
Either way i call here - with the top prize being much higher than 2nd i'd be less inclined to worry about finishing on the bubble as your aim is to win the tourney, i'd guess that the chip leader is using the fact that you dont want to commit your chips until the short stack has been knocked out and will use the opportunity to steal 600 in blinds from you.
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Royal Flush
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Posts: 22972
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #2 on:
February 23, 2007, 11:24:52 AM »
I think the chip leader is moving in with pretty much any 2, assuming he is a competent player, if that is the case then i think you have to call. You are 80-20 vs a random hand so 80% of the time you have a massive lead HU 5300 vs 700 and 20% of the time you are out for 0 (unless of course the SB has called and he loses to the big stack).
Infact event if we give the Pusher a good range (any pair QJ+ KJ+ Ax) we are still 70-30 so a call is correct i would imagine.
VOC
«
Last Edit: February 23, 2007, 11:55:48 AM by Royal Flush
»
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
boldie
Hero Member
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Posts: 22416
Don't make me mad
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #3 on:
February 23, 2007, 11:40:20 AM »
yeah it's a call for me for the reasons posted above. You're playing for first and can virtually secure that by taking this hand.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
Tragic
Sr. Member
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Posts: 625
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #4 on:
February 23, 2007, 11:59:53 AM »
Just to point out yes the SB folded.
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Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
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Posts: 10064
Go Ducks!
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #5 on:
February 23, 2007, 01:38:56 PM »
This is a call i think i wouldn't call with ak though. My range for calling this all in jj+
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SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #6 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:12:50 PM »
I would fold here. My calling range is KK+
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WellChief
Sr. Member
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Posts: 571
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #7 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:13:43 PM »
Insta-call, if you're playing six-packs you have to go for 1st places.
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SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #8 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:29:10 PM »
Damn, i'm way too tight.
Ok, i icm'd this .
You fold and you have 0.4184 equity
You call and win you have 0.6746 equity
You call and lose you have 0.0 equity
0.8*0.6746 = 0.54 > 0.4184, hence you should call here.
You should call if you have a 62% chance against his range which equals 66+, A9s+, ATo+ if he is pushing with any two.
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matt674
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Posts: 10250
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #9 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:41:27 PM »
Quote from: SupaMonkey on February 23, 2007, 02:29:10 PM
Damn, i'm way too tight.
Ok, i icm'd this .
You fold and you have 0.4184 equity
You call and win you have 0.6746 equity
You call and lose you have 0.0 equity
0.8*0.6746 = 0.54 > 0.4184, hence you should call here.
You should call if you have a 62% chance against his range which equals 66+, A9s+, ATo+ if he is pushing with any two.
WTF?!?!?!?!?!?! YOU'RE A MONKEY!!!
All you do is just push which ever button is flashing most!! Sheesh, did you learn nothing from monkey poker college?
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boldie
Hero Member
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Posts: 22416
Don't make me mad
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #10 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:42:09 PM »
Quote from: SupaMonkey on February 23, 2007, 02:29:10 PM
Damn, i'm way too tight.
Ok, i icm'd this .
You fold and you have 0.4184 equity
You call and win you have 0.6746 equity
You call and lose you have 0.0 equity
0.8*0.6746 = 0.54 > 0.4184, hence you should call here.
You should call if you have a 62% chance against his range which equals 66+, A9s+, ATo+ if he is pushing with any two.
you know, I have no idea what you just said there.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Posts: 985
Allin!
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #11 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:48:59 PM »
fsigiofkhgsoknoiarengpoi
Does that clear it up for you?
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Tragic
Sr. Member
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Posts: 625
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #12 on:
February 23, 2007, 02:58:14 PM »
I'm sure we've all guessed then ending anyway, but here goes.
I call, chip daddy shows
. And it's goodnight for me. Damn that weak little bastard SB. Just wondering if anyone thought you would fold. I think I would always call I like to go down fighting.
I think if i'd gone mad and played a 300 quid sixpak though, this would definitely be a fold, so don't play outside ur bankroll kids
.
«
Last Edit: February 23, 2007, 03:00:49 PM by Tragic
»
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boldie
Hero Member
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Posts: 22416
Don't make me mad
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #13 on:
February 23, 2007, 03:04:57 PM »
Quote from: SupaMonkey on February 23, 2007, 02:48:59 PM
fsigiofkhgsoknoiarengpoi
Does that clear it up for you?
yeah, I put it through the monkey translator that Matt gave me a while ago and it's makes perfect sense, thanks.
I am no good with math in poker and all that so all those calculations mean very little to me.
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
matt674
Hero Member
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Posts: 10250
Re: SNG Bubble
«
Reply #14 on:
February 23, 2007, 03:06:57 PM »
glad i'm useful for something
Knowing the maths or not you still have to go with what you feel is right at the time, especially online where you have all of 15 seconds to make a decision before your hand is mucked.
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