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Poker Hand Analysis
Anyone REALLY lay this down??
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Topic: Anyone REALLY lay this down?? (Read 3581 times)
Smart Money
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #15 on:
February 24, 2007, 07:44:58 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 23, 2007, 08:27:31 PM
How do the words "lay down" enter your thought process with this hand?
He has led out for more than pot on the turn after calling the flop, this is rarely a FH as he scares shit load of action, he could be super scared of the FD or trying to find out if 99 is good, i give him credit for KQ/QJ/99 at best. Maybe even a FD putting pressure on you if you hold AA/KK (i imagine he has you down as a TAG) so when he bets out more than the pot on the turn i am thinking about vegas and the fucking Mirage rather than Kinnish's truck.....
VOC
RF. Your analysis may be spot on in many tournament situations, but I'd have to disagree with this assessment for a cash game. With 4 players seeing the flop following a raise, then you have to assume there's a good chance of some PPs being out there, especially in cash games. KQ (QJ less likely) are possible holdings of course, but the only times 99 bets out here is at 3am on a Saturday morning after a Kebab.
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Smart Money
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #16 on:
February 24, 2007, 07:47:05 PM »
You have to be concerned about a set here but one factor that makes this a near-impossible lay-down is the pre-flop action resulting in an already large pot on the flop. By the time you are faced with the turn bet, the pot is already too big to let go off. (This is precisely the reason why you don't want to see a flop with more than one or two players in cash when you hold AA/KK.)
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #17 on:
February 25, 2007, 12:26:54 AM »
For my money Smartmoneys reponses to Cash game situations are the best on this forum. Absolute quality, dont give away too much.
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Royal Flush
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #18 on:
February 25, 2007, 04:30:45 AM »
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 24, 2007, 06:39:07 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 23, 2007, 08:27:31 PM
How do the words "lay down" enter your thought process with this hand?
He has led out for more than pot on the turn after calling the flop,
this is rarely a FH as he scares shit load of action
, he could be super scared of the FD or trying to find out if 99 is good, i give him credit for KQ/QJ/99 at best. Maybe even a FD putting pressure on you if you hold AA/KK
(i imagine he has you down as a TAG)
(Pauls cash game is strangely the exact opposite of his tournament style) so when he bets out more than the pot on the turn i am thinking about vegas and the fucking Mirage rather than Kinnish's truck.....
VOC
Would have to (sadly) disagree with this view. Plenty of intermediate level players (myself included) are learning that the slow-playing mentality is entirely void most of the time. When you get dealt massive hands you want to get paid massively. Most people are so worried about scaring off all the action that they slow play their hands and the pot doesnt get big enough for them to stack anyone. Leading out with made FH's, Quads and nut flushes is a nice play a lot of the time in cash games where you are always looking to stack someone.
Instead of thinking "how do i get paid without scaring off everyone". Your thought process should be "how do other really big hands pay me off when i hold the nuts/near nuts".
If the money is a lot deeper, i lay this down to the right player in an internet cash game but not here obv. What does he think you have? A Queen. Thats why he pots it. But @ 1/2 these players are rare............they have normally moved up.
I couldn't agree more if he had led at the flop, but the guy check called the flop then overbet the turn. This is a way of killing action not creating it, if they guy had led then led again you could make an argument for passing.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
AlexMartin
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #19 on:
February 25, 2007, 10:36:15 AM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 25, 2007, 04:30:45 AM
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 24, 2007, 06:39:07 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 23, 2007, 08:27:31 PM
How do the words "lay down" enter your thought process with this hand?
He has led out for more than pot on the turn after calling the flop,
this is rarely a FH as he scares shit load of action
, he could be super scared of the FD or trying to find out if 99 is good, i give him credit for KQ/QJ/99 at best. Maybe even a FD putting pressure on you if you hold AA/KK
(i imagine he has you down as a TAG)
(Pauls cash game is strangely the exact opposite of his tournament style) so when he bets out more than the pot on the turn i am thinking about vegas and the fucking Mirage rather than Kinnish's truck.....
VOC
Would have to (sadly) disagree with this view. Plenty of intermediate level players (myself included) are learning that the slow-playing mentality is entirely void most of the time. When you get dealt massive hands you want to get paid massively. Most people are so worried about scaring off all the action that they slow play their hands and the pot doesnt get big enough for them to stack anyone. Leading out with made FH's, Quads and nut flushes is a nice play a lot of the time in cash games where you are always looking to stack someone.
Instead of thinking "how do i get paid without scaring off everyone". Your thought process should be "how do other really big hands pay me off when i hold the nuts/near nuts".
If the money is a lot deeper, i lay this down to the right player in an internet cash game but not here obv. What does he think you have? A Queen. Thats why he pots it. But @ 1/2 these players are rare............they have normally moved up.
I couldn't agree more if he had led at the flop, but the guy check called the flop then overbet the turn. This is a way of killing action not creating it, if they guy had led then led again you could make an argument for passing.
Several ways to play a hand as you well know mate. I like his play here. He finds out where he is on the flop, testing the water for action. When he finds out the flop is only going to be played HU he needs to find out how best to be paid. If m3boy bets £20 into that pot (of roughly £20) on that flop what is he saying?
He is saying i have a queen/overpair son and im not gonna give you the odds to draw to a weak flush. (imo bet was too big on the flop) (£15 does same job). Once opponent realises that you have possible overpair but most likely a queen he wants to max profit.
Second Queen is going to kill action from an overpair anyway. The hands the second queen helps are AQ/KQ which are not going to be able to fold. Massive overbet on the turn is designed to max hands which contain a Queen. After all, AA/KK no longer pays this hand off anyway. Far better to stack a guy with a queen here than win an extra £20 of a guy with AA/KK on the river.
Gd debate though. How'd Brighton go? I was still k.o'd from the 24hr jobby. Next one ill come down for with a bit of planning.
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Pab
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #20 on:
February 25, 2007, 11:08:40 AM »
In a 6 handed cash game this hand plays itself at almost any level, with full house vs top trips ace kicker on a non-flush/straight board, you are not playing agressive enough if you dont get stacked. It could have played out a few different ways but all the money should go in on the turn somehow. If you dont get stacked with AQ here you are playing too passive IMO
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Royal Flush
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #21 on:
February 25, 2007, 11:37:48 AM »
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 25, 2007, 10:36:15 AM
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 25, 2007, 04:30:45 AM
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 24, 2007, 06:39:07 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 23, 2007, 08:27:31 PM
How do the words "lay down" enter your thought process with this hand?
He has led out for more than pot on the turn after calling the flop,
this is rarely a FH as he scares shit load of action
, he could be super scared of the FD or trying to find out if 99 is good, i give him credit for KQ/QJ/99 at best. Maybe even a FD putting pressure on you if you hold AA/KK
(i imagine he has you down as a TAG)
(Pauls cash game is strangely the exact opposite of his tournament style) so when he bets out more than the pot on the turn i am thinking about vegas and the fucking Mirage rather than Kinnish's truck.....
VOC
Would have to (sadly) disagree with this view. Plenty of intermediate level players (myself included) are learning that the slow-playing mentality is entirely void most of the time. When you get dealt massive hands you want to get paid massively. Most people are so worried about scaring off all the action that they slow play their hands and the pot doesnt get big enough for them to stack anyone. Leading out with made FH's, Quads and nut flushes is a nice play a lot of the time in cash games where you are always looking to stack someone.
Instead of thinking "how do i get paid without scaring off everyone". Your thought process should be "how do other really big hands pay me off when i hold the nuts/near nuts".
If the money is a lot deeper, i lay this down to the right player in an internet cash game but not here obv. What does he think you have? A Queen. Thats why he pots it. But @ 1/2 these players are rare............they have normally moved up.
I couldn't agree more if he had led at the flop, but the guy check called the flop then overbet the turn. This is a way of killing action not creating it, if they guy had led then led again you could make an argument for passing.
Several ways to play a hand as you well know mate. I like his play here. He finds out where he is on the flop, testing the water for action. When he finds out the flop is only going to be played HU he needs to find out how best to be paid. If m3boy bets £20 into that pot (of roughly £20) on that flop what is he saying?
He is saying i have a queen/overpair son and im not gonna give you the odds to draw to a weak flush. (imo bet was too big on the flop) (£15 does same job). Once opponent realises that you have possible overpair but most likely a queen he wants to max profit.
Second Queen is going to kill action from an overpair anyway. The hands the second queen helps are AQ/KQ which are not going to be able to fold. Massive overbet on the turn is designed to max hands which contain a Queen. After all, AA/KK no longer pays this hand off anyway. Far better to stack a guy with a queen here than win an extra £20 of a guy with AA/KK on the river.
Gd debate though. How'd Brighton go? I was still k.o'd from the 24hr jobby. Next one ill come down for with a bit of planning.
Fantastic post, you are 100% correct i see the method too it now, this is probably why i am a bad cash player.
Brighton no good, AA got smashed up, then managed to lose £1100 in the cash, couldn't make a hand stand up in either game! Come for the Rendezvous festival its better.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #22 on:
February 25, 2007, 01:32:49 PM »
Quote from: Pab on February 25, 2007, 11:08:40 AM
In a 6 handed cash game this hand plays itself at almost any level, with full house vs top trips ace kicker on a non-flush/straight board, you are not playing agressive enough if you dont get stacked. It could have played out a few different ways but all the money should go in on the turn somehow. If you dont get stacked with AQ here you are playing too passive IMO
Pab, against most average opponents i get stacked by his play here. Against known good opponents i might find a fold.
Tell me a hand that he wants to overbet the turn with that you beat (assuming he is a strong player).
Cheers flushy.
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Smart Money
Sr. Member
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Posts: 384
Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #23 on:
February 25, 2007, 05:34:13 PM »
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 25, 2007, 01:32:49 PM
Quote from: Pab on February 25, 2007, 11:08:40 AM
In a 6 handed cash game this hand plays itself at almost any level, with full house vs top trips ace kicker on a non-flush/straight board, you are not playing agressive enough if you dont get stacked. It could have played out a few different ways but all the money should go in on the turn somehow. If you dont get stacked with AQ here you are playing too passive IMO
Pab, against most average opponents i get stacked by his play here. Against known good opponents i might find a fold.
Tell me a hand that he wants to overbet the turn with that you beat (assuming he is a strong player).
Cheers flushy.
At the risk of exposing our mutual appreciation club
, I agree completely. Against certain opponents, a fold here is possible if he wants to force the pot.
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Royal Flush
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #24 on:
February 25, 2007, 05:47:38 PM »
Quote from: Alex Martin on February 25, 2007, 01:32:49 PM
Cheers flushy.
No, thank you! I have never learnt as much from a single PHA post as that.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
TightPaulFolds
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #25 on:
February 25, 2007, 11:44:42 PM »
Instafold.
lol not really. Dont think I'm putting him on a Queen though, to be honest, although some KQ QT holders do play it just like that.
I think Hansen Seidel was AQ v 88
and A8x QQ Seidel 888 all in river.
«
Last Edit: February 26, 2007, 01:38:53 PM by TightPaulFolds
»
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Smart Money
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Posts: 384
Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #26 on:
February 26, 2007, 04:22:58 AM »
Quote from: TightPaulFolds on February 25, 2007, 11:44:42 PM
I think Hansen Seidel was AQ v 88
and A8x QQ Seidel 888 all in river.
That's right. Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeRQeIdymYM
Hansen took so long to call the turn bet, it's clear he figured his top two pair could be behind.
For the record, I think the best way to play this hand [the one in the link] in Hansen's position, when you suspect you opponent has a set, (at least at an online $1/$2 table) is to min raise the turn. This tells him exactly where he is at a much cheaper price than calling the turn, and then calling the river bet. (When he's re-raised it becomes an easy fold.)
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Horneris
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Re: Anyone REALLY lay this down??
«
Reply #27 on:
February 27, 2007, 09:54:48 AM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on February 23, 2007, 08:27:31 PM
i am thinking about vegas and the fucking Mirage rather than Kinnish's truck.....
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