Decisions on the flop

[AlexMartin]

Balls to variance this is a cash game where ill take any edge i can. Im praying it all goes in on the flop with this hand.
Its like the age old tournie/cash game toss up. Say you have QQ in the 1st hand of the WSOP. You raise and opponent goes all-in. By accident his hand slips and he reveals AKo. Would you call? I probably wouldnt given that i think ill get (much?) better situations to get chips.
But in a cash game, there is no ifffing or butting, i have the roll to deal with the variance and im a 57% favourite- not the 50/50 most ppl think this is. Instafucking call.

[stephanadam]

I was thinking along the same lines as alex martin and horneris, I really dont like the flat call here there is to many cards that kill my action. If I 3-bet him on the flop and he just calls it gives me a tricky decision to make on the turn. I went for the shove because im never going to that far behind and I wont have any more decisions to make (thinking hurts my head!).


The Village 10474796-287924 Holdem No Limit $1/$2
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Hand Start.
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 1 : realdeal888 has $163.61
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 2 : luscos has $229.75
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 3 : Deggsy60 has $222.55
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 4 : sparred has $223.63
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 5 : Rotulla has $288.55
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Seat 6 : teeth0697 has $119.47
[Feb 26 20:55:36] : Rotulla is the dealer.
[Feb 26 20:55:37] : teeth0697 posted small blind.
[Feb 26 20:55:39] : realdeal888 posted big blind.
[Feb 26 20:55:39] : Game [287924] started with 6 players.
[Feb 26 20:55:39] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 26 20:55:39] : Seat 4 : sparred has
[Feb 26 20:55:43] : luscos folded.
[Feb 26 20:55:45] : Deggsy60 folded.
[Feb 26 20:55:49] : sparred called $2 and raised $6
[Feb 26 20:55:57] : Rotulla called $8
[Feb 26 20:55:58] : teeth0697 folded.
[Feb 26 20:55:59] : realdeal888 folded.
[Feb 26 20:55:59] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 26 20:55:59] : Board cards [ ]
[Feb 26 20:56:06] : sparred bet $15
[Feb 26 20:56:14] : Rotulla called $15 and raised $30
[Feb 26 20:56:20] : sparred called $30 and raised $170.63 and is All-in
[Feb 26 20:56:22] : Rotulla called $170.63
[Feb 26 20:56:23] : Showdown!
[Feb 26 20:56:23] : Seat 4 : sparred has
[Feb 26 20:56:24] : Seat 4 : sparred has
[Feb 26 20:56:30] : Board cards [   ]
[Feb 26 20:56:31] : Seat 4 : sparred has
[Feb 26 20:56:31] : sparred has Straight AKQJT
[Feb 26 20:56:31] : Seat 5 : Rotulla has
[Feb 26 20:56:31] : Rotulla has 3 of a Kind: 10s
[Feb 26 20:56:31] : sparred wins $447.26 with Straight AKQJT
[Feb 26 20:56:39] : Hand is over.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

Insta Shove

[stephanadam]

I like the way you think Alex!

[Royal Flush]

Either i am missing something very fundamental here or all of you are.

Yes i don't mind getting my money in here, but i am preferring he folds. Lets assume for a second the guy has a hand that realistically can fold but if it calls we are beating. Now you don't mind it calling, you get more money in as a fave (55%) but its much better if he passes, you win more money if he passes, that is surely the objective of a cash game.

There is a raise to $8 and 2 players see the flop + the blinds makes the pot $19.

On the flop it goes $15 raise to $45, now when you tank it in you are raising $170 into a $109 pot (45x2+19)

If your opponent passes now you take out $279 with no risk, a pretty good result.

Now if he calls we play a much larger pot ($449) although we are getting 55.4% of this pot that only adds up to $249.

So our opponent calling here costs us $30 each time (15BB!) when you get into these situations you should be hoping for a pass not a call. It decreases your profit and increases your variance.

[totalise]

Raise to 90 for me.
I don't like the flatcall as it screams draw so the re-raise will do nicely. I wouldn't mive all in as that a very big bet compared to the pot and don't know what he'll make of that. I am hoping he'll move all-in so i can call though

I like this play best of all. Purely because villain can now shove with top 2,AK or AA. OBV you dont back down on turn.

I like making it 90 here as well because it looks a lot stronger than the shove. Surely we want a pass now though, with his $50 already in there we don't want to take this to showdown.

I would be happy to take his 50$ but I am hoping he'll call/push. It really is a massive draw so am hoping to get all his money in here.

But you win more when he passes and your variance is less, if he calls its bad for us!

true  but like Alex said the Villain can come over the top withy AK/Aces etc and with the draw I'll take that on in a cash game.

right, but the point flushy is making is that even if you are a 55% fav, you still want him to fold because of the equity already in the pot. 100% of the $70 (or whatever) in the pot is better then 55% of the $447 pot

After betting the $15 on the flop.. our stack is $201, if after raising, he folds to a push, our stack is $280 (pot is $79 at this point)  if he calls its (assuming AK/AA which is what you apparently want to call) about 57% of $447, which is $259.26. Your EV is higher when they fold, even though you are a fav.

edit: flushy beat me to it (as usual)

[boldie]

Either i am missing something very fundamental here or all of you are.

Yes i don't mind getting my money in here, but i am preferring he folds. Lets assume for a second the guy has a hand that realistically can fold but if it calls we are beating. Now you don't mind it calling, you get more money in as a fave (55%) but its much better if he passes, you win more money if he passes, that is surely the objective of a cash game.

There is a raise to $8 and 2 players see the flop + the blinds makes the pot $19.

On the flop it goes $15 raise to $45, now when you tank it in you are raising $170 into a $109 pot (45x2+19)

If your opponent passes now you take out $279 with no risk, a pretty good result.

Now if he calls we play a much larger pot ($449) although we are getting 55.4% of this pot that only adds up to $249.

So our opponent calling here costs us $30 each time (15BB!) when you get into these situations you should be hoping for a pass not a call. It decreases your profit and increases your variance.

Excellent post Flush, you are completely right mate.

[stephanadam]

Great posts fushy and totalise, guess I need to start thinking more!

[Smart Money]

Fair enough Boldie.

[Feb 26 20:56:14] : Rotulla called $15 and raised $30

Thought that meant that hed made it $45 in total. Meaning he'd $53 invested in pot. 

Why do I read posts when I haven't had any coffee yet?

I apologize my friend, you are of course correct.

I mis-read it as a minimum raise too!

[AlexMartin]

Raise to 90 for me.
I don't like the flatcall as it screams draw so the re-raise will do nicely. I wouldn't mive all in as that a very big bet compared to the pot and don't know what he'll make of that. I am hoping he'll move all-in so i can call though

I like this play best of all. Purely because villain can now shove with top 2,AK or AA. OBV you dont back down on turn.

I like making it 90 here as well because it looks a lot stronger than the shove. Surely we want a pass now though, with his $50 already in there we don't want to take this to showdown.

I would be happy to take his 50$ but I am hoping he'll call/push. It really is a massive draw so am hoping to get all his money in here.

But you win more when he passes and your variance is less, if he calls its bad for us!

true  but like Alex said the Villain can come over the top withy AK/Aces etc and with the draw I'll take that on in a cash game.

right, but the point flushy is making is that even if you are a 55% fav, you still want him to fold because of the equity already in the pot. 100% of the $70 (or whatever) in the pot is better then 55% of the $447 pot

After betting the $15 on the flop.. our stack is $201, if after raising, he folds to a push, our stack is $280 (pot is $79 at this point)  if he calls its (assuming AK/AA which is what you apparently want to call) about 57% of $447, which is $259.26. Your EV is higher when they fold, even though you are a fav.

edit: flushy beat me to it (as usual)


Bollocks didnt see how big pot was. Ur right flushy, nice post.

[Smart Money]

Either i am missing something very fundamental here or all of you are.

Yes i don't mind getting my money in here, but i am preferring he folds. Lets assume for a second the guy has a hand that realistically can fold but if it calls we are beating. Now you don't mind it calling, you get more money in as a fave (55%) but its much better if he passes, you win more money if he passes, that is surely the objective of a cash game.

There is a raise to $8 and 2 players see the flop + the blinds makes the pot $19.

On the flop it goes $15 raise to $45, now when you tank it in you are raising $170 into a $109 pot (45x2+19)

If your opponent passes now you take out $279 with no risk, a pretty good result.

Now if he calls we play a much larger pot ($449) although we are getting 55.4% of this pot that only adds up to $249.

So our opponent calling here costs us $30 each time (15BB!) when you get into these situations you should be hoping for a pass not a call. It decreases your profit and increases your variance.

Yep. Absolutely correct that your EV is greater when your opponents folds. RF- Your method of calculation isn't quite right, although coincidentally in this example, your conclusion is very close. Apologies if I appear pedantic here, but that isn't the case as this calculation is significantly different.

To calculate your EV if your opponent folds then it is 100% of the pot excluding your raise. That is, +$109 in the above example.

To calculate your EV if your opponent calls, find 55% of the combined value of the current pot of $109 and your opponent's call of $170 and then subtract 45% of your raise of $170. I.e. (55% x ($109 + $170)) - (45% * $170) = +$77

So in the above example a call is costing you $32.

As the size of the raise increases, the difference in EV between a call and a fold decreases because the current pot size becomes less significant compared to the additional money in the pot that we have 55% equity in.

E.g. Suppose we had $1,000 behind us to make the raise with as opposed to $170 (an extreme example!) Then our EV from a call increase to (55% x ($109 + $1000)) - (45% * $1000) = +$160

[Royal Flush]

Either i am missing something very fundamental here or all of you are.

Yes i don't mind getting my money in here, but i am preferring he folds. Lets assume for a second the guy has a hand that realistically can fold but if it calls we are beating. Now you don't mind it calling, you get more money in as a fave (55%) but its much better if he passes, you win more money if he passes, that is surely the objective of a cash game.

There is a raise to $8 and 2 players see the flop + the blinds makes the pot $19.

On the flop it goes $15 raise to $45, now when you tank it in you are raising $170 into a $109 pot (45x2+19)

If your opponent passes now you take out $279 with no risk, a pretty good result.

Now if he calls we play a much larger pot ($449) although we are getting 55.4% of this pot that only adds up to $249.

So our opponent calling here costs us $30 each time (15BB!) when you get into these situations you should be hoping for a pass not a call. It decreases your profit and increases your variance.

Yep. Absolutely correct that your EV is greater when your opponents folds. RF- Your method of calculation isn't quite right, although coincidentally in this example, your conclusion is very close. Apologies if I appear pedantic here, but that isn't the case as this calculation is significantly different.

To calculate your EV if your opponent folds then it is 100% of the pot excluding your raise. That is, +$109 in the above example.

To calculate your EV if your opponent calls, find 55% of the combined value of the current pot of $109 and your opponent's call of $170 and then subtract 45% of your raise of $170. I.e. (55% x ($109 + $170)) - (45% * $170) = +$77

So in the above example a call is costing you $32.

As the size of the raise increases, the difference in EV between a call and a fold decreases because the current pot size becomes less significant compared to the additional money in the pot that we have 55% equity in.

E.g. Suppose we had $1,000 behind us to make the raise with as opposed to $170 (an extreme example!) Then our EV from a call increase to (55% x ($109 + $1000)) - (45% * $1000) = +$160

oops you are quite right, in my defence i had just woken up!

[AlexMartin]

Just had this exact hand come up in a cash game.

Holding QsJs flop comes 9s10s4h.
Action on flop went, i lead out, he raises, i re-raise............he calls.

At this point we have both invested $100 of our $200 stacks.

Turn blanks, .
Pot is BIG now. On turn i shove, he calls, i river nut nut. I think he's a fav with 1 card to come on the turn (by 3%) (he tells me he had A10) but i think this is the best way to play this no? Opinions wanted.

[Smart Money]

Just had this exact hand come up in a cash game.

Holding QsJs flop comes 9s10s4h.
Action on flop went, i lead out, he raises, i re-raise............he calls.

At this point we have both invested $100 of our $200 stacks.

Turn blanks, .
Pot is BIG now. On turn i shove, he calls, i river nut nut. I think he's a fav with 1 card to come on the turn (by 3%) (he tells me he had A10) but i think this is the best way to play this no? Opinions wanted.

Are you referring to the decision on the turn? If so then you have to assume you have 15 outs here, so you're getting the correct pot odds to call his all-in if he was acting first. By acting first yourself, the additional fold equity would make this a push for me.

If this was a full-handed table then make sure you add that opponent to your "Buddies" list.

[Royal Flush]

Just had this exact hand come up in a cash game.

Holding QsJs flop comes 9s10s4h.
Action on flop went, i lead out, he raises, i re-raise............he calls.

At this point we have both invested $100 of our $200 stacks.

Turn blanks, .
Pot is BIG now. On turn i shove, he calls, i river nut nut. I think he's a fav with 1 card to come on the turn (by 3%) (he tells me he had A10) but i think this is the best way to play this no? Opinions wanted.

Are you referring to the decision on the turn? If so then you have to assume you have 15 outs here, so you're getting the correct pot odds to call his all-in if he was acting first. By acting first yourself, the additional fold equity would make this a push for me.

If this was a full-handed table then make sure you add that opponent to your "Buddies" list.

But if you fancy your overs then 21 outs...