Wilfully accepting a race....

[TightEnd]

The result of this post will be a bit results oriented, so apologies for that in advance

I am playing a £300 freezeout at Walsall, and is going well.

104 runners start, there are 35-40 left

I have 46,000, blinds 400-800. Its a two day comp, 45 minute clock, The blinds go to 600-1200 in 2 minutes.

Its a tough field. I have been out of position all comp on Zippy Aslam and Mick Fletcher and Dave Colclough has just been moved to my immediate right. My point is I am not outplaying these guys, my ability to steal is restricted particularly by Fletcher who seems to sniff out these things from wherever they come and re-raises remorselessly, but so far I have played ok, hit some hands that have held up and made one very good call of a "resteal" all-in top get my chip stack.

Player with 24,000 raises to 2,400 utg

Unknown player pre this comp to me but seems ABC. Has limp-reraised UTG before with AA. and then did same with KK.

I am in mid position with 

I re-raise to 8,000 hoping to win it there and then. My image needless to say: tight.

He gives it a big dwell, looks uncomfortable, fiddles with his chips and then pushes all-in

In the absence of any previous evidence to the contrary this doesn't seem to me like an act. I discount AA and KK and my decision is essentially this

His range is AK/QQ/JJ I feel. He passes 10s and lower/AQ to me there

So with 66% probability should I willingly accept a race for half my chips here, leaving me with 22,000 or c10x bb at the next level should I lose or 70,000 and in great shape if I win it?

Playing to win the thing rather than be passive, and a long way from the money, my potential gain from winning the hand is greater than my loss from losing it?

or should I turn this down at this stage?

is there a meaningful alternative to re-raising with AK there?....fold is wrong to me and flat call leaves me vulnerable to a Fletcher/a n other back raise.

[totalise]

look at how much money you already put in the pot.... and what does 66% probability mean?

you are getting layed a monster price to ship it in, dont disappoint the masses.

Sorry you lost the race

oh and as for this:

Playing to win the thing rather than be passive

this is generally a  statement people use to justify making terrible calls, but from what i can see you are getting layed >2/1 on a pretty much even money coup, calling here isn't playing to win, but folding here is playing not to lose, and once you get in that mindset you are drawing dead before your chips have dribbled away.

Lets not forget that if you win the flip you can use your relentless agression and reknowned power play to dominate the field.... (april fools!)


calling is ok if you expect a backraise, because your hand is going to dominate the range of the lags behind you, so you can call, they ship in the raise, see how UTG looks/acts, and then turboship your stack in and presumably pick up a reasonable chunk of dead money or get their stack in as a pretty big dog, so its not like you fear a backraise with AK.. because any hand that has you in trouble will call/raise if you raise anyway.

[TightPaulFolds]

look at how much money you already put in the pot.... and what does 66% probability mean?

you are getting layed a monster price to ship it in, dont disappoint the masses.

Sorry you lost the race

oh and as for this:

Playing to win the thing rather than be passive

this is generally a  statement people use to justify making terrible calls, but from what i can see you are getting layed >2/1 on a pretty much even money coup, calling here isn't playing to win, but folding here is playing not to lose, and once you get in that mindset you are drawing dead before your chips have dribbled away.

Lets not forget that if you win the flip you can use your relentless agression and reknowned power play to dominate the field.... (april fools!)


calling is ok if you expect a backraise, because your hand is going to dominate the range of the lags behind you, so you can call, they ship in the raise, see how UTG looks/acts, and then turboship your stack in and presumably pick up a reasonable chunk of dead money or get their stack in as a pretty big dog, so its not like you fear a backraise with AK.. because any hand that has you in trouble will call/raise if you raise anyway.

That's a great analysis, well done.

[MANTIS01]

OK

Played in this one myself, although my AA was cracked by the mighty 2-3!! Strange table.

My exit does show that there are never any nailed-on guarantees when you gamble though.

My thoughts are that you should welcome this situation at this particular stage in the comp. You only don't want to see AA or KK and you discount these. So at worst you are racing. The players who win races at this stage in a tournament get to the final table. If you don't go to the races you don't win them...and your opponent is offering you a discounted entry fee now. So I would jump on the bus.

The real bonus is that this decision is not for your tournament life. Rather like the £64,000 question on "Who wants to be a Millionaire" you still have money even if you get it wrong.

Additionally, if you re-raise and then fold your image will not be great and the more aggressive players you mention will not give you an easy ride thereafter. Showing that you have a lot of gamble in you here will allow you to take some easy pots later should you win the race and get some chips about you.

If you pass here and go card dead for a while you may start wishing you could turn the clock back and have a crack at this one....Regrets.

If you call and loose you have lost a pot trying to win the comp...No regrets.

[MANTIS01]

Ok

Just to add to this.....now I've been runner-runnered on PokerStars

The casino is a gambler's paradise. The likes of me and you go there because we enjoy the buzz of winning. Nothing nicer than taking down a big tournament.

To win a tournament you have to gamble.

Non-poker players in the casino all have the odds stacked against them Roulette, BlackJack, Bandits etc...

Good poker players are the only people in the house to actually get a good gamble for their money. You pay your money to enter what is essentially a gambling tournament so you have to get in there and gamble at those odds. If you loose the gamble then ok that happens.

I honestly think the poker industry tries to get you to believe there is some sort of guaranteed, smooth passage to winning if you practise hard enough.

If you were short-stacked you would be loving this gamble .

So like I say I would welcome this opportunity when it comes along. This it what you came for. The 70,000 - great shape scenario can only be reached by having a punt here.

And of course still in regardless.

[matt674]

It took me a week to recover.

It was a lesson learned and I am kind of grateful for that...cough!

Today, I sometimes play scared.

But I call it Tournament Management.

Matt

tournament management? you have KQ suited in a battle of the blinds - no matter how you are playing the tournament you go broke on this hand unless you pass preflop - and if you are passing KQ suited in the battle of the blinds whilst on the final table bubble then you probably need to find another game as your playing more than scared.

This was my very attitude at the time.

Not now though

To win a tournament you have to gamble.

Non-poker players in the casino all have the odds stacked against them Roulette, BlackJack, Bandits etc...

Good poker players are the only people in the house to actually get a good gamble for their money. You pay your money to enter what is essentially a gambling tournament so you have to get in there and gamble at those odds. If you loose the gamble then ok that happens.

If you were short-stacked you would be loving this gamble .

So like I say I would welcome this opportunity when it comes along. This it what you came for. The 70,000 - great shape scenario can only be reached by having a punt here.

And of course still in regardless.

to gamble or not to gamble

[TightEnd]

Just for the record he had QQ, I called of course and I lost. Thats the results oriented bit.

Thank you for the replies and thoughts

[matt674]

Unfortunately this is the problem - you can take the same situation one week and play it one way, then encounter a virtually identical situation the following week and play it completely different. Neither course of action being right or wrong at the time.

One week you call and your AK hits vs QQ and you don't even think of making the post on blonde then the following week the QQ holds up and you pose the question. The next week you pass because you are the rock of all rocks. Another week you call and are up against AA and you chastise yourself all the way home on a poor read. The following week you pass because you remember the poor read from the previous week. One week you call and your opponent turns over 93 suited and your hand holds up and you inwardly laugh at how someone could stick all their chips in preflop with 9 high. The following week you get outdrawn by the same 93 suited and you curse under your breath at how lucky some people get at the game. The week after you call because you are sick of him reraising you with 93 and he turns over KK.

More often than not you have to go with your feeling at the time, with the information you have. Sometimes your feeling turns out to be wrong but the more you play hopefully the better you become at reading the situation for next time. While the responses have been good - you'll still find yourself in the same quandry next game when someone reraises you all in preflop when you hold AK. And while you can go armed with the advice offered on this thread your decision will still boil down to your instincts and feelings at that particular moment - which no thread on the hand analysis board can prepare you for.

Unfortunately though it doesn't matter how good a decision you've made, once all the money is in the middle you are relying on the unfortunate factor "lady luck". If she's not on your side then it doesn't matter how good the decision it was you've made your taking an early bath or have been crippled. Like Phil Hellmuth says "if luck weren't involved i'd win every tourney i play"

[MANTIS01]

Ok

Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 31, 2007, 06:47:25 pm
It took me a week to recover.

It was a lesson learned and I am kind of grateful for that...cough!

Today, I sometimes play scared.

But I call it Tournament Management.



Quote from: MANTIS01 on March 31, 2007, 07:49:41 pm
Matt


Quote
tournament management? you have KQ suited in a battle of the blinds - no matter how you are playing the tournament you go broke on this hand unless you pass preflop - and if you are passing KQ suited in the battle of the blinds whilst on the final table bubble then you probably need to find another game as your playing more than scared.

This was my very attitude at the time.

Not now though



Quote from: MANTIS01 on Today at 03:09:30 am
To win a tournament you have to gamble.

Non-poker players in the casino all have the odds stacked against them Roulette, BlackJack, Bandits etc...

Good poker players are the only people in the house to actually get a good gamble for their money. You pay your money to enter what is essentially a gambling tournament so you have to get in there and gamble at those odds. If you loose the gamble then ok that happens.

If you were short-stacked you would be loving this gamble .

So like I say I would welcome this opportunity when it comes along. This it what you came for. The 70,000 - great shape scenario can only be reached by having a punt here.

And of course still in regardless.


to gamble or not to gamble 

If you take on and win favourable gambles in this situation you give yourself the luxury of being able to opt out of similar races when it's bubble-time later on. This is my take on the situation.

Anyway, I thought the post from totalise was a good one

I especially like this bit

calling is ok if you expect a backraise, because your hand is going to dominate the range of the lags behind you, so you can call, they ship in the raise, see how UTG looks/acts, and then turboship your stack in and presumably pick up a reasonable chunk of dead money or get their stack in as a pretty big dog, so its not like you fear a backraise with AK.. because any hand that has you in trouble will call/raise if you raise anyway.

Good to remember though that the hand is going to be played out very differently this way. Re-raising exposes the strength of our hand here and the other players are going to act accordingly. By not re-raising you loose some information about the strength of hands behind you.

Flat-calling conceals the strength of our hand. So aggressive players like Mick Fletcher are probably going to have a peck at the value in the pot now. He could get it all-in against utg man and take down a big pot with A-Q when an A on the board busts utg's JJ. I wouldn't enjoy seeing that if I flat-call and and then folded following significant action between the two. So I would only call here if I intended to "turboship" as totalise says.

[AlexMartin]

Personally when the stacks are deep i play AK like i do in a cash game. I would have flat called the raise, if there is a large laggy re-raise later on and UTG passes, depending on player i could well call.
Once you have re-raised, after he gives it the non-hollywood dwell-up, you HAVE to call. The pot is laying an immense price.

[stewart]

i think you pretty much have to pass this one but give yourself a mental note to take the rains of a little bit,  this one you should let it go given the players history id have put him on jj/qq due to the way you say he acted but i dont want to be calling all my chips at this stage in the comp, we still have enough to do some damage, i think you need to change gears a little though with the blinds going up start the taxing and if you get called so be it but at least you go with a bang

[JungleCat03]

there's 33.2k in the pot and its 16k to call and you think they have JJ/QQ/AK.

How can you not call this? It's a gamble but a very good one. You give away so much equity by folding.

The only possible way to give away more equity is pull your trousers down, bend over and ask him to finish the job

[maldini32]

there's 33.2k in the pot and its 16k to call and you think they have JJ/QQ/AK.

How can you not call this? It's a gamble but a very good one. You give away so much equity by folding.

The only possible way to give away more equity is pull your trousers down, bend over and ask him to finish the job

love reading ur posts m8...you is a class act.

[iorek]

This is my first post other than to wish someone luck during the excellent live updates, I only started reading these great theads after mantis01 recommended them to me. We are regularly on the same table at Broadway or Wasall and I hope the insight gained here doesn't cost you too much mate, just a little.

So on to my race, £20 re buy in Broadway last night (Friday took £8K+) blinds are 200/400 moving to 3/6 before my BB, 9 on the table I'm 3rd to act.  Jacks, so I'm going to raise. I have 6000 chips and raise to 1700.

The button moves all in immediately for 6200. He is a good aggressive player (who won a mini) and he'd know the over raise by me makes it unlikely I'd fold to a re raise. What do I put him on? AK probably. Aces, Kings or Queens could have been but my read on the speed with which the chips went in discounted those holdings a little. Tens or worse, not likely. And finally Jacks, just too unlikely.

The over raise coupled with 12600 if I win lead me to call hoping I was against AK.

I was right, he wanted to see all 5 cards and had moved in with AKo. He was even righter (will that one get though spell checker) as a K on the river knocked me out. I'm writing this now because I don't know if I should have folded there if I'd raised to 1100. Also the BB was around 3000 which was a factor in my over raise to 1700.

Maybe a minimum raise could look like a monster and got a call (na) or more importantly left me with 5200 with which I could have got off the hand. Maybe lol.

The short but 2 rounds away from desperate stacks are very tricky.

Maybe I should cut a paste this entry into "Jacks from early position" thread. 

Too many maybes in this great game.

[MANTIS01]

LOL....How u doing Marcus!

I will be reading your posts with great, great, future-pot-winning interest.

By the way, you can't let your opponent bully you off this pot. If he wants to try and hit one of his 6 outs for 12,600 bring it on I say!!

You are a good player...you know this...that is why you call.

The only problem is that Essy is a jammy bugger!!