I called with the Nuts - was it a mistake?

[Royal Flush]

It's an option but betting the nuts on the turn is rarely going to be that big a mistake.

[totalise]

......I chatted about this with Jim Reid tonight, he's a pretty tidy Omaha player.

Hs view was that I should NOT have Raised on the turn, better to chack-call Paul Parkers Raises, & if any of the scare cards come (which was more than half the damn pack) I can get off the hand.

The only problem I see with that is that, even if Paul "misses", he may nick the Pot if one of the 4 redraws hits (spade flush, diamiond flush, higher straight or paired board). As I would not know which one he had hit - or indeed IF he'd hit - he'd be able to bet me off the hand if ANY scare card arrived.

But Jim's thought process appeals to me as the better way to play the hand.

the problem with this thinking is that there is a guy allin that has declared he is calling for value, so if a scare card hits the river that paul doesn't have, he cant really bluff a dry pot because its highly likely that the allin guy has the very hand that paul is representing, plus if you do just call on the turn, you are representing a draw yourself... so i think his plan to bluff danger rivers that he doesn't have is fraught with downside and doesn't contain much upside.. and if he is the type of guy to bluff scare card rivers with dry/small side pots, then it probably means he isnt restricted to only ever getting it in on the turn with the nuts, so like mortons fork, whatever style he has, its correct to get it in on the turn.

[tikay]

......I chatted about this with Jim Reid tonight, he's a pretty tidy Omaha player.

Hs view was that I should NOT have Raised on the turn, better to chack-call Paul Parkers Raises, & if any of the scare cards come (which was more than half the damn pack) I can get off the hand.

The only problem I see with that is that, even if Paul "misses", he may nick the Pot if one of the 4 redraws hits (spade flush, diamiond flush, higher straight or paired board). As I would not know which one he had hit - or indeed IF he'd hit - he'd be able to bet me off the hand if ANY scare card arrived.

But Jim's thought process appeals to me as the better way to play the hand.

the problem with this thinking is that there is a guy allin that has declared he is calling for value, so if a scare card hits the river that paul doesn't have, he cant really bluff a dry pot because its highly likely that the allin guy has the very hand that paul is representing, plus if you do just call on the turn, you are representing a draw yourself... so i think his plan to bluff danger rivers that he doesn't have is fraught with downside and doesn't contain much upside.. and if he is the type of guy to bluff scare card rivers with dry/small side pots, then it probably means he isnt restricted to only ever getting it in on the turn with the nuts, so like mortons fork, whatever style he has, its correct to get it in on the turn.

True, thank you.

"Mortons fork" - not heard that saying in years. "between the devil & the deep blue sea".....!

[AlexMartin]

Is folding the nuts ever a good play?  Please excuse me if this is a daft question

Yes.

E.g.

NLH, after turn:

You are deep. Pot is very small, and you're raised all-in by someone who has you covered.

Would you call with, say,    ?

Yes. Most NLHE players are exceptionally bad and i wouldnt be suprised to see 2 pair out there . But not above $2/$4.

[Royal Flush]

Errrm, JC just said he thinks my numbers are wrong, i had a quick look and i have made a rather silly error.

In my attempts to simplify the matter when i split the pot in 2 i failed to split tikay's call into 2.

Tikay you need to win 29% of the pot to make this a +EV call, given we already assume that you are never scooping this means you have to tie a lot more often than i earlier mentioned. Now that we know what Tony had i ran the hands and you had 33% equity in the pot so it was a marginally correct call, however if we assume the set scenario for TB then your equity is only 19%.

Of course you also need to think how often Paul has the bare nuts as well.

Sorry for the earlier mistake and shame on all of you for spotting it.....

[tikay]

Thanks James.

The specifics are not important, I have learned from this, & next time, I'll keep the pot small by check-calling..