Bubble Decision

[UpTheMariners]

if i fold it will more than likely see me in the money, due to short stacks on other tables.

FullTiltPoker Game #2290226545: $40,000 Guarantee (16825037), Table 21 - 600/1200 Ante 150 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:50:03 ET - 2007/04/25
jeesus (Observer): ooptheeeeeeee
Seat 1: Rex55 (7,730)
Seat 2: Randers (15,395)
Seat 3: DRUNKENSTYLE (30,204)
Seat 4: UpTheMariners (22,573)
Seat 5: magikstick8 (69,660)
Seat 6: hoffman83 (13,783)
Seat 7: Cool Breeze 64 (10,098)
Seat 8: Wake all in (38,198)
Rex55 antes 150
Randers antes 150
DRUNKENSTYLE antes 150
UpTheMariners antes 150
magikstick8 antes 150
hoffman83 antes 150
Cool Breeze 64 antes 150
Wake all in antes 150
magikstick8 posts the small blind of 600
hoffman83 posts the big blind of 1,200
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to UpTheMariners [ ]
Cool Breeze 64 folds
Wake all in folds
Rex55 folds
Randers folds
DRUNKENSTYLE raises to 30,054, and is all in
UpTheMariners has 15 seconds left to act


who calls, who folds?

[Royal Flush]

who calls?

Good players.

who folds?

Bad players.

[LeKnave]

who calls?

Good players.

who folds?

Bad players.

He's not pushing with AA/KK here..

And im happy to gamble with w/e else he has.  He probly has AK/AQ/AJ/99 ish sort of hand.  Gamble, Go deep, Ship the big monies.

[GlasgowBandit]

Yep in this position he could have anything, it could easily be an attempt to steal an already decent pot his pushing range can be very wide in the c/o I call every day.  Play to win never mind making the money!  Go for the big prize.   This could be the best opportunity you find.

[AlexMartin]

Ur serious arent you.

[boldie]

who calls?

Good players.

who folds?

Bad players.

yep...easy call

[lazaroonie]

does the money matter ?

If it read it correctly its a 40grand tourney, depending on what the low places pay and what your objectives are, then that is what governs what you must do.

If for example this hand came up in a WPT bubble, with 50K prize money on the line, would you fold it ?


Personally at the levels I play at I am not good enough to throw away AK against the probable range of hands that he has, and be able to "play" my way to the big money.

Even if you reckon he has a decent PP 80% of the time and A High the other 20%, then you have to call.

[Pokerron]

I must be a bad player!    If you were first to act, I'd say push, however calling for all your money, on the bubble, with 4 players in a more desperate position (on your table alone, let alone the other table!) and with you having nothing but the ante invested I think I would wait until I had fold equity on my side.

[AgentChip109]

more often then not, people make these sort of plays wiv small-mid pocket pairs. this guy prob has somewhere between  55 and 99. its whether u wanna gamble on a coinflip or not.

[UpTheMariners]

i passed, i think it was in my head that i was going to miss out on the money again. out of the 15 mtt's ive played this month, ive won 1, cashed in 3 others and finished within 5-6 places of the money 5 times. finished 15th in the end and i do feel this decision may of cost me a decent pay day.   

[AlexMartin]

Who gives a monkeys what he has here, this is an important step for your macro game and bubble mentality. Go loco on the bubble and its always easier with chips.
Show people ur not scared and they will get worried. They will lock up.
AK ur behind i reckon 2% of the time, racing 70% of the time and beating AQ/AJ the rest. Im gambling, the bubble means nothing to me and the real money is in the top 3.