Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[byronkincaid]

is this as simple as saying we are against a possibe range of say TT+ AQ+ so we are 50/50ish

if we fold we get £1920

if we push and he calls 50% of the time we get £760 50% of the time we get £4000 = £380 + £2000 = £2380 which is an EV of £460?

If that's right (which is unlikely with my maths of course) that's quite an expensive pass.

[RobS]

is this as simple as saying we are against a possibe range of say TT+ AQ+ so we are 50/50ish

if we fold we get £1920

if we push and he calls 50% of the time we get £760 50% of the time we get £4000 = £380 + £2000 = £2380 which is an EV of £460?

If that's right (which is unlikely with my maths of course) that's quite an expensive pass.

Exactly, it really is as simple as that unless there are other factors to consider. I think Tikay knows this, and is basically saying that he would still rather lock up the £1,920 even though it is a massively -EV decision.

[Graham C]

It may have been a -EV decision, but it's still worth £1200,

I'd have taken the cash, but then I'm only small fry. Depends on your situation imo.  Neither is a bad decision.

Well played Tikay.

[Bongo]

It's always possible he would have won with the all in...

[77dave]

None of you have allowed in your maths for the chance that someone behind Tikay might call and then someone is knocked out resulting in Tikay laddering in the chip count

[Dingdell]

Nice result Tikay.  

[celtic]

None of you have allowed in your maths for the chance that someone behind Tikay might call and then someone is knocked out resulting in Tikay laddering in the chip count

 


Plus if your happy with 2k and the extra makes a difference then the fold is the correct decision. No need to gamble in that situation imo.

Nice result sir.

[kinboshi]

None of you have allowed in your maths for the chance that someone behind Tikay might call and then someone is knocked out resulting in Tikay laddering in the chip count

Or he beats both of them, and increases his chip-stack even further.

[boldie]

I completely understand the fold BUT it is of course a -EV move. If this situation occured regularly and everytime you took the fold option you would be losing a tonne of money in the long run.

[amcgrath1uk]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

[jezza777]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

This is exactly the issue, poker players shouldn't pass up +EV situations to lock up money. It is correct, profitable decisions that matter in poker not pots or whats locked up.

Nice touch tho TK

[RED-DOG]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

This is exactly the issue, poker players shouldn't pass up +EV situations to lock up money. It is correct, profitable decisions that matter in poker not pots or whats locked up.

Nice touch tho TK

But if you run out of money, you might not be able to play the next game, so you will miss many more + EV situations.

If someone gave you 6/4 on the toss of a coin for all the money you would ever have during your lifetime, could you take the chance?

[boldie]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

This is exactly the issue, poker players shouldn't pass up +EV situations to lock up money. It is correct, profitable decisions that matter in poker not pots or whats locked up.

Nice touch tho TK

But if you run out of money, you might not be able to play the next game, so you will miss many more + EV situations.

If someone gave you 6/4 on the toss of a coin for all the money you would ever have during your lifetime, could you take the chance?

If that was really the case here I would suggest he shouldn't have sat down in this game in the first place.

[ifm]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

This is exactly the issue, poker players shouldn't pass up +EV situations to lock up money. It is correct, profitable decisions that matter in poker not pots or whats locked up.

Nice touch tho TK

But if you run out of money, you might not be able to play the next game, so you will miss many more + EV situations.

If someone gave you 6/4 on the toss of a coin for all the money you would ever have during your lifetime, could you take the chance?

There is a good argument to be had there Red but Tikay isn't that person, half an hour of work at Sky makes up the difference in money for him.

[RED-DOG]

In a usual sense I would push it all in. However with the impending finish and chip count it is more sensible to take the guaranteed money. Whether long term its +ve or -ve isn't the issue, its the specific situation that he's in. I'd be taking the 2k and running in this situation

This is exactly the issue, poker players shouldn't pass up +EV situations to lock up money. It is correct, profitable decisions that matter in poker not pots or whats locked up.

Nice touch tho TK

But if you run out of money, you might not be able to play the next game, so you will miss many more + EV situations.

If someone gave you 6/4 on the toss of a coin for all the money you would ever have during your lifetime, could you take the chance?

There is a good argument to be had there Red but Tikay isn't that person, half an hour of work at Sky makes up the difference in money for him.

The quote doesn't say tikay, it says "Poker players"