Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[Ironside]

bring a red berry with you

[boldie]

As for bankroll management if you are going to make decisions like this cos you are scared or feel that not having an extra 4 buyins in your roll will make a massive difference to your ability to playing the circuit, you are underolled massively.

This is not the case here me thinks and its just a mistake in my opinion.

FWIW Tikay I admire your dedication to keeping yourself rolled for these games and are a great example to a whole bunch of players, of how bankroll management is important in poker. I don't buy this im a donk rubbish either, you don't make a profit year on year playing the live circuit without some game. Hope my post doesn't sound too harsh.

Good post

[Longy]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!

Paper, pen and GCSE text book ftw.

Serious answer ICM calculations are never going to be able done in real time, its a case of studying and remembering common situations then making a rough approximation based on experience.

[bobby1]

Im not good enough to understand your maths Longy but it looks v impressive, can I just clarify something. What you are saying is that is you are getting 13/8(38%) about an 11/8 chance you should be calling all the time?

This is the prob with rigid math based statements,for example if the guy could show you his hand and he is holding JJ are you still calling as you are 11/8 to beat his hand and getting 7/4 on your money, are you calling tho? With your theory it has to be a yes but for me getting 7/4 about 11/8 isnt big enough value for gambling all my equity in one go at that point.

Its back to the age old gambling question that Red Dog quotes on here, If you could toss a coin everyday and get 6/4 heads I am happy to accomodate but you have to have everything you own on, you are getting great value everytime but I am gonna win in the long run yet on every spin you are getting outstanding value.

Liken it do a day of gambling, you set off on a Sunday morinng with 300 quid, and you bet a few winners and a few losers till at 1 am the following morning you have got 1200 quid, do you now want to risk all the 1200 quid on a 13/8 shot coz you make it 11/8 or do you have the same bet you have been having all day and gaurantee a profit?

ps, ive just read thru that and please be sure Im not having a dig at mathmeticians as it might seem at times.

cheers

[Dingdell]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!

Paper, pen and GCSE text book ftw.

Serious answer ICM calculations are never going to be able done in real time, its a case of studying and remembering common situations then making a rough approximation based on experience.

Or for the non mathematicians ....you could just go on instinct and come out £2k better off anyway....

[kinboshi]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!

Paper, pen and GCSE text book ftw.

Serious answer ICM calculations are never going to be able done in real time, its a case of studying and remembering common situations then making a rough approximation based on experience.

Or for the non mathematicians ....you could just go on instinct and come out £2k better off anyway....

If his instinct was to fold, then he didn't come out £2K better off.

[TightEnd]

but Dingdell, we shouldn't be dealing in absolutes here..its all about the theory.

As the saying goes, you can't eat value but you can eat theory (Billy Idol, 1981)

[Longy]

Im not good enough to understand yoiur maths Longy but it looks v impressive, can I just clarify something. What you are saying is that is you are getting 13/8(38%) abOut an 11/8 chance you should be calling all the time?

38% is break even point if Tikay is less than 38% to win the hand he should pass (in this case his opponent range has to be tighter than aa,kk,qq,ak) and if he is better than 38% to win the hand he should call, which is almost certainly the case here as just about everyone is raising and calling his all  with aq or jj for example.

[Bongo]

Folding leaves you £0 better off, as your previous actions have made you your cash, folding just changes nothing.

You can't eat money either (unless it's made of chocolate).

[Dingdell]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!

Paper, pen and GCSE text book ftw.

Serious answer ICM calculations are never going to be able done in real time, its a case of studying and remembering common situations then making a rough approximation based on experience.

Or for the non mathematicians ....you could just go on instinct and come out £2k better off anyway....

If his instinct was to fold, then he didn't come out £2K better off.

But how do you expect me to know that - As I said - for the non mathematicians...... 

[bobby1]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Im not good enough to understand your maths Longy but it looks v impressive, can I just clarify something. What you are saying is that is you are getting 13/8(38%) about an 11/8 chance you should be calling all the time?

This is the prob with rigid math based statements,for example if the guy could show you his hand and he is holding JJ are you still calling as you are 11/8 to beat his hand and getting 7/4 on your money, are you calling tho? With your theory it has to be a yes but for me getting 7/4 about 11/8 isnt big enough value for gambling all my equity in one go at that point.

Its back to the age old gambling question that Red Dog quotes on here, If you could toss a coin everyday and get 6/4 heads I am happy to accomodate but you have to have everything you own on, you are getting great value everytime but I am gonna win in the long run yet on every spin you are getting outstanding value.

Liken it do a day of gambling, you set off on a Sunday morinng with 300 quid, and you bet a few winners and a few losers till at 1 am the following morning you have got 1200 quid, do you now want to risk all the 1200 quid on a 13/8 shot coz you make it 11/8 or do you have the same bet you have been having all day and gaurantee a profit?

ps, ive just read thru that and please be sure Im not having a dig at mathmeticians as it might seem at times.

cheers

ive posted it again as i cut it off mid go earlier

[kinboshi]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!

Paper, pen and GCSE text book ftw.

Serious answer ICM calculations are never going to be able done in real time, its a case of studying and remembering common situations then making a rough approximation based on experience.

Or for the non mathematicians ....you could just go on instinct and come out £2k better off anyway....

If his instinct was to fold, then he didn't come out £2K better off.

But how do you expect me to know that - As I said - for the non mathematicians...... 

That's the thing though.  The decision here (void of any show-stopping tells) is a maths one.

(Interesting that Tikay thought the opponent was tight, and someone else at the table had him pegged as super aggressive)

[RobS]

Liken it do a day of gambling, you set off on a Sunday morinng with 300 quid, and you bet a few winners and a few losers till at 1 am the following morning you have got 1200 quid, do you now want to risk all the 1200 quid on a 13/8 shot coz you make it 11/8 or do you have the same bet you have been having all day and gaurantee a profit?

Take the +EV gamble every time. Poker should be seen as one long game where you concentrate on making the move with the most expectation every time and try not to worry about booking a winnning day.

[taximan007]

Tikay its a BAD pass end of.

This is an ICM situation and you should be playing poker to maximise your EV in tournaments, bankroll management is a seperate issue imo which i will move onto later.

Ok you win £4000 if you win the hand and £760 if you lose, these of course approximation as future events effect these figures as does someone calling behind, the latter in my experience in this situation has a negligble effect on your EV. As do future events in a crapshoot limited time situation.

If we fold we end up with 2k, so if we call in the long term we need to make more than 2k.

Break even point here is x by £760 + y by 4000. Where x is the amount of time you lose the hand and y the amount you win (in fractions) . x+y=1

760x + 4000y= 2000
x + y           =1

Solve the similtaneous eqaution. y turns out to be about 38% and x 62%. So as long as we are 38% or better against opponents range we have to call.

  35,958,384  games     0.005 secs     7,191,676,800  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.824%     18.14%    20.68%           6524615      7436014.00   { AcKd }
Hand 1:    61.176%     40.50%    20.68%          14561741      7436014.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Surely just about every players range is bigger than ak,qq+ here. This mistake bigger mathematicallly than pushing all in blind first hand and getting called by aces and im sure you are not going to do that tikay.


As for bankroll management if you are going to make decisions like this cos you are scared or feel that not having an extra 4 buyins in your roll will make a massive difference to your ability to playing the circuit, you are underolled massively.

This is not the case here me thinks and its just a mistake in my opinion.

FWIW Tikay I admire your dedication to keeping yourself rolled for these games and are a great example to a whole bunch of players, of how bankroll management is important in poker. I don't buy this im a donk rubbish either, you don't make a profit year on year playing the live circuit without some game. Hope my post doesn't sound too harsh.

I KNEW there was a reason why I should have gone to school.

[bobby1]

Liken it do a day of gambling, you set off on a Sunday morinng with 300 quid, and you bet a few winners and a few losers till at 1 am the following morning you have got 1200 quid, do you now want to risk all the 1200 quid on a 13/8 shot coz you make it 11/8 or do you have the same bet you have been having all day and gaurantee a profit?

Take the +EV gamble every time. Poker should be seen as one long game where you concentrate on making the move with the most expectation every time and try not to worry about booking a winnning day.

but you are having the bet, you are simply staking the correct amount instead of gambklng it all. A what stage using the bet all coz its value do you stop? Its when you back a loser and have nowt left.