Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[Karabiner]

Paid in last night for today's $340, & was given my seat draw - Seat 2.

Have now entered 4 Comps here, & drawn Seat 2 (10 handed Tables) in all 4.

Are the odds of that 9 x 9 x 9, or 9 x 9 x 9 x 9?

Defitely not. They leave two seats vacant on each table for later entries; seats 4+7 iirc.

[tikay]

Paid in last night for today's $340, & was given my seat draw - Seat 2.

Have now entered 4 Comps here, & drawn Seat 2 (10 handed Tables) in all 4.

Are the odds of that 9 x 9 x 9, or 9 x 9 x 9 x 9?

Defitely not. They leave two seats vacant on each table for later entries; seats 4+7 iirc.

Bugger. OK, change the sum to 7x, from 9x.

[Simon Galloway]

Paid in last night for today's $340, & was given my seat draw - Seat 2.

Have now entered 4 Comps here, & drawn Seat 2 (10 handed Tables) in all 4.

Are the odds of that 9 x 9 x 9, or 9 x 9 x 9 x 9?

Defitely not. They leave two seats vacant on each table for later entries; seats 4+7 iirc.

------> 4095/1

[Simon Galloway]

Bugger. OK, change the sum to 7x, from 9x.

Not how it works Tony.

8 seats, so assuming the long run, for every 8 times you sit, you get each seat once.  7 unsuccessful trials, 1 successful trial (seat 2) = 7/1

But to work the maths out, turn it into probabilities.  8 seats, so probability of each seat is 0.125.  Take that to the 4th power as each tourny draw is independent, and you get 1/4096.  Converting that back into conventional bookmakers odds you get 4095/1.

[tikay]

bwin/Party reported their interim results a day or two ago, & the CEO said a most remarkable thing, & I quote.......

In response to a Q3 analyst call question from Barcap’s Ed Birkin over whether the “disappointing” NGR from poker in the quarter, given the boost provided by the launch of ring games in Italy and the opportunity to grab market share from the currently non-operational Full Tilt, had been impacted by high levels of bonusing, Weigold (pictured) said:
“We haven’t seen any significant movements in bonus rates through the period. As Jim [Ryan] said earlier, the reality is, whilst we have benefitted from the FTP closure, the bottom line is that until any action is taken against PokerStars that results in them shutting down, we are unlikely to see a huge benefit.

Now, a fall in revenue was expected, & theirs is very small, compared to the market as a whole - all the biggies are falling, some are in fatal decline - so that was not so bad, really. But the remark about 'Stars was, I thought, quite an extraordinary thing for a CEO to state so openly. Bit churlish, really.

Of course, the DOJ will hit 'Stars in due course, how & when is anyone's guess, (but deffo when least expected) but there's not a snowballs chance in hell they will let go now. A monetary fine would be useless, 'Stars own the world, so not sure what the action will be. I think 'Stars would settle for perma-exclusion from the USA when Regulation arrives rather than some potentially worse options. Still, quite something for the CEO of bwin/Party to say out loud what the whole of the Trade is thinking. Very odd & un-Corporate speak, that. I'm sure 'Stars sent him a nice "thank you" note.

"....until any action is taken against PokerStars that results in them shutting down..." Say what you think, Party!

[tikay]

Bugger. OK, change the sum to 7x, from 9x.

Not how it works Tony.

8 seats, so assuming the long run, for every 8 times you sit, you get each seat once.  7 unsuccessful trials, 1 successful trial (seat 2) = 7/1

But to work the maths out, turn it into probabilities.  8 seats, so probability of each seat is 0.125.  Take that to the 4th power as each tourny draw is independent, and you get 1/4096.  Converting that back into conventional bookmakers odds you get 4095/1.

Can we discuss concrete, then?

[Simon Galloway]

Would have been a good poker nic.

Tony "concrete" Kendall.

Not quite as rocky as granite, but greyer.

[tikay]

Would have been a good poker nic.

Tony "concrete" Kendall.

Not quite as rocky as granite, but greyer.

No need! I did one of those 3 bet things yesterday. Rather exciting.

[tikay]

Brekkie booked this morning with LilDave & Dom @ The Venetian, pre-Tourney. Think I could get used to having Vegas holidays, & no work, loving every moment.

I think the boys want me to give them a bit of mentoring. I'm so gonna discuss the intracies of reinforced concrete with them. 

[nirvana]

Be interesting to know if other people like holidays, you know, without work and that :-)

Could be a niche here that is hitherto untapped

[DMorgan]

Massive sigh at flying out as soon as you land in Vegas, would have been a sick breakfast lineup to be involved in

Have a good trip and try to keep Dom's morale sky high for me

[tikay]

Massive sigh at flying out as soon as you land in Vegas, would have been a sick breakfast lineup to be involved in

Have a good trip and try to keep Dom's morale sky high for me

No, say it ain't so! Cancel the flight home, imo.

Dom will be fine. In an ideal world, I'd stay near to his Table, & just let him sound off on me, & then keep him cool. A wise judge - or it may have been Chompy, I don't exactly recall - suggested that Dom maybe plays better when revved up. And given some of the antics I've seen at the tables here in the last few days, he'll not lack excuses to get revved up.

[Skippy]

bwin/Party reported their interim results a day or two ago, & the CEO said a most remarkable thing, & I quote.......

In response to a Q3 analyst call question from Barcap’s Ed Birkin over whether the “disappointing” NGR from poker in the quarter, given the boost provided by the launch of ring games in Italy and the opportunity to grab market share from the currently non-operational Full Tilt, had been impacted by high levels of bonusing, Weigold (pictured) said:
“We haven’t seen any significant movements in bonus rates through the period. As Jim [Ryan] said earlier, the reality is, whilst we have benefitted from the FTP closure, the bottom line is that until any action is taken against PokerStars that results in them shutting down, we are unlikely to see a huge benefit.

Now, a fall in revenue was expected, & theirs is very small, compared to the market as a whole - all the biggies are falling, some are in fatal decline - so that was not so bad, really. But the remark about 'Stars was, I thought, quite an extraordinary thing for a CEO to state so openly. Bit churlish, really.

Of course, the DOJ will hit 'Stars in due course, how & when is anyone's guess, (but deffo when least expected) but there's not a snowballs chance in hell they will let go now. A monetary fine would be useless, 'Stars own the world, so not sure what the action will be. I think 'Stars would settle for perma-exclusion from the USA when Regulation arrives rather than some potentially worse options. Still, quite something for the CEO of bwin/Party to say out loud what the whole of the Trade is thinking. Very odd & un-Corporate speak, that. I'm sure 'Stars sent him a nice "thank you" note.

"....until any action is taken against PokerStars that results in them shutting down..." Say what you think, Party!

1) There is going to be no nationwide regulation in the United States, short of some limited state-by-state regulation where card rooms will be operated by local land based casinos (e.g. California).
2) Pokerstars will never operate in the United States again.
3) How will the DOJ hit Pokerstars again? They can try and fine Pokerstars all they want, but since Pokerstars don't have any assets in the US, they will just ignore the fines. You think Pokerstars aren't currently putting large amounts of cash into being unshutdownable by the US government?
4) Dear other internet card rooms. Why not a) make your software not suck b) hire a support department that gives two hoots c) hire some people that actually care if the games are straight. Pokerstars are definitely beatable and a long way from perfect. Stop whinging and get improving.

[Supernova]

Best of luck Tony.

This has the potential to be the greatest ever spin-up of the winter fuel allowance.

Marv......

Thanks Ralph. I've run outrageously well in cash games this year at DTD, as it happens, just found myself in some incredibly nice spots, & cleared over £5k in the last three visits, & that's been good for the cash-flow, as well as a simply incredible 12 months of staking.

I really ought to quit staking now, I can never run this good again! Binks of £27k, £16k, £4.5k, £3k, & an assortment of lesser sums, all inside 12 months, how can you explain such good fortune?

Hope you are well, & in good heart. A shame you & Tom could not be here, it would have been such fun. Instead, I get Chompy. In evey life, a little rain must fall.....

Ah yes but next week you can expect a deluge...will be fun.

[TightEnd]

Fact alert. The London underground has made more money out of selling copies of harry Webb's tube map than it ever has running its train services. Gatso, eat that.