Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[RED-DOG]

Value, example one.

I paid £1.45 for a small bottle of water in a Motorway Service Station today. Think on THAT for value......

£1-9s for a bottle of water!

You know why they charge almost thirty bob for a small bottle of water don't you?

[tikay]

Value, example two.

I expect you all know this, & I was a late arrival on the scene.

But for the few who dont, you must try "google maps" if you want a demo of what real value is.

Go to google, & underneath the "google" logo, there are a series of headings. Click "Maps".

Now type your - or any - Postcode in.

Hey presto, in less than a second, you have a map of where your Postcode is. Just via the scroll wheel on your mouse, you can reduce the scale so that you can see every little turning near your chosen location, or by increasing the scale - again via the mouse wheel or the little up & down icon top left of the map - you can see where in it in relation to the locality, the town, county, country, continent, or whole damn world. And you can follow the roads from any "a to b" point, say Derbyshire to Cornwall. Eat your heart out, cartologists.

And you know what? It's free. Really really free.

God bless google, Larry Page & Sergey Brin are my absolute heroes.

Now THAT's value!

[tikay]

Value, example one.

I paid £1.45 for a small bottle of water in a Motorway Service Station today. Think on THAT for value......

£1-9s for a bottle of water!

You know why they charge almost thirty bob for a small bottle of water don't you?

Because idiots like me are prepared to pay that much? Not wrong. But I'm not alone, they sell millions of bottles of the stuff.

[jezza777]

I think in tournament situations calling is fine if you are intending to make a move on a pot because of a players style of play or chipstack. I do think that you need to be deep enough or short enough for it to work best. What I dont think is a good idea is to be calling to try and hit cards and have that as your only way of winning the pot.

[tikay]

I think in tournament situations calling is fine if you are intending to make a move on a pot because of a players style of play or chipstack. I do think that you need to be deep enough or short enough for it to work best. What I dont think is a good idea is to be calling to try and hit cards and have that as your only way of winning the pot.

Agreed on all three counts. In particular, "deep enough or short enough" is, imo, extremely relevant. There is an in-between size of stack where we can say "wait for a better spot", but it plays itself with a short stack, & with a deep-stack, (I'm told....) we play very different anyway, or should, because we can use the muscle our stack gives us. I doubt that books make those fine distinctions, they say it's black & white, right or wrong. And it's NOT........

[jezza777]

I think that poker is so aggressive thesedays that calling can be a useful weapon. Not to the point where you become a calling station but it can slow aggressive or by the book (and I am thinking Harrington here) players down. If we take the continuation bet as an example; a lot of players who have read Harington will religiously cbet if they are preflop raisers, if they do this then its easy enough to flat call their bet and fire the turn especially if you have position and they check. It can be risky and cost you a few bets if it goes wrong so the situatoin has to be just right.

[tikay]

I think that poker is so aggressive thesedays that calling can be a useful weapon. Not to the point where you become a calling station but it can slow aggressive or by the book (and I am thinking Harrington here) players down. If we take the continuation bet as an example; a lot of players who have read Harington will religiously cbet if they are preflop raisers, if they do this then its easy enough to flat call their bet and fire the turn especially if you have position and they check. It can be risky and cost you a few bets if it goes wrong so the situatoin has to be just right.

"...by the book......"

See, them damn books again.....

[tikay]

I stayed in a Hotel tonight, as I have an early start a long way from home in the morning.

It's one of those large Hotels with function rooms, & they had two wedding receptions on the go.

Wholly predictably, they all got bladdered & started wrecking the joint & scrapping. So the Police were called, & 5 Panda Cars & two "Incident Vans" polled up, sirens a-blaring. Best part of 20 coppers. Imagine how much that lot cost the taxpayers.

Come the revolution, aka Radiohead & Tom Yorke, these drunken pissheads would be first against the wall in my little dream world.

Ambulances & Fire Brigades are chargeable in certain cases, RTA's for example, & the Insurance company has to cough up.

When are the Police gonna be able to charge these louts for wasting Police time & our money? I see no reason why not, it's a bloody liberty, especially when you think how many times it must happen every night, all over the country.

I'd stick 'em in a cell for a fortnight, not bother feeding them either. Or shoot them. I mean it, I would.

[RichEO]

Value, example one.

I paid £1.45 for a small bottle of water in a Motorway Service Station today. Think on THAT for value......

£1-9s for a bottle of water!

And people comlain about fuel prices. If only we could drink petrol when at the services and put water in our cars when at home. Think of the money we'd save. Must be time for bed, I'm having crazy thoughts again..

[totalise]

With 1,350 in the pot already, I doubt he can fold to a check-raise, so you're probably best off pushing as was your original plan.

I guess so, yes. With my stack, the hand really plays itself I suppose, & plays the same either way. But yes, I'd have looked daft (more daft) if he checked behind me!

calling preflop is a bit loose I think, you only getting like 5/1 implied odds, and if he has a biggie, you dont hit a hand/draw often enough to justify the preflop call. IMO of course.. I also agree with snoops that you might as well ship it in first on the flop incase he gets potstuck with a hand like 1010 or 99.

Enjoying the diary immensely, good work captain!

I've been mulling over the "implied odds" thing this evening, & I wonder if we are thinking right - odd-wise - here.

First up, Post-Flop, yes, if we always call or push "with the right odds" then over time, we'll be a net winner. Poker is a mere irrelevance compared to Maths, & the Maths never fail over time.

But pre-flop, well, we cannot just wait for situations where we have the odds, surely? I mean, the facts are, there are just not enough situations where we have the right pre-flop odds. Have you (the Royal you, that is...) never called heads-up or against two oppos with suited connectors? Of course you have, because it depends on so many things, not just odds, & we CAN call with unfavourable odds against, for instance, someone who's a bit lairy, at-it, or just a serial-raiser. (And forget, for now, my call in this instance, which we can agree was a horror). We do NOT have to hit to win, either, we can nick it down the line if weakness is shown. Where, in "implied odds" is nicking the Pot allowed for?

hi Tony,

what I meant was (and I could well be wrong) is that theres only so many combinations of 3 cards that can come on the flop that will help your hand... so you want 44x flops... 55x flops... 45x flops, or flops that give you a straight or a flush draw..... now I donno how often you get a flop like this with 45, but you are paying 600 from a 3k stack to try and flop this kinda hand, and it seems too expensive if you are just going to give up on the hand if you dont flop a favourable spot to put the rest of your stack in... ie, if you dont flop big, you just check/fold on the flop. 600 a time checking/folding when you miss, you cant profitably cover this expense the times you do double up

Its not that you chose to play the hand, its that you chose to play it in this spot where the reward couldn't (in my mind) be justified by the risk. If you had 10,000 and someone made it 600, then you could  justify it a lot easier.. Each spot is different, and each spot has to on a primary level pay close accordance to the correlation between stack size and bet/raise size. The people that make money from these hands dont make money by calling off 20% of their stack preflop with it, generally speaking.

Obviously you say "well we can pick up the pot if we miss".. but if the guy is tight as you alluded to, how often is that going to happen? not too often, so you might well end up chunking off the rest of your chips on bluffs..

My own little rule with suited connectors is situation & opponent specific, but personally, I'll make "wrong odds" calls with suited connectors very often. In my case, I award a nadge of extra merit to any suited connectors containing a 5 or a 10, as we can't make any straight without either of those two appearing at some stage, & our reasoning behind calling with suited connectors is really to hit either a straight or a flush. One pair, two pair, or trips is just a bonus. So if I hold 4-5, 5-6, 9-T or T-J, suited, I'm very often gonna make a bad odds play. Although we cannot argue with Maths & probability post-flop, I think pre-flop, especially with blinds low, it is something we have to do.

of course, the concept of a right/wrong call isnt dependant on pure maths, its dependant on (in part)

a)how likely you are to win a big pot if you make your hand and
b)how likely you are to flop a big hand that will crack an overpair.
c) how likely you are to lose a big pot if you flop a medium strength hand.


Remember that the shallower stacks are, the less likely you want to play these potential hands that dont FLOP massive, because you cant play the later streets profitably, and hands like suited connectors dont FLOP big, they flop one pair hands that can get you into trouble, or draws that can leave you getting your stack in as a 2/1 underdog. The deeper your stack and the more play there is on later streets, the better the draws play. Comparing this to pocket pairs that flop massive or flop nothing, you dont really get into much trouble with these hands. You kinda touch on this yourself above, where you say with low blinds. Thats the time to be tryin to play hands and win pots at showdown, not when ur stack is small compared to the blinds.

Finally, I know many a successful tourney player who has absolutely no idea or conception of "correct odds". I think, in Tourney play, we have to judge "implied odds" with a pinch of salt sometimes.

Thoughts?

I'd expect this to be incorrect... most of the classic good old timer (and all the good new breed) poker players made many a living off implied odds, they understood that if you risk small and can win big, and someone will overplay a big hand against you, they are gonna be in the pot. Maybe they didn't know the exact terminlogy or the exact math, but they knew all about it, and as far as I can see, the succesful players all understand the concept of it, even if they dont know fully the terminology.

All of this is in my most humble of opnions, and sorry for sidetracking your thread, long may it continue

[totalise]

Implied odds again.....

This hand has just gone down at The Broadway, it's DC v Thewy, see.....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=27563.165

Did Thewy know he was a 25% to 75% Post-Flop dog here? Did he CARE? I bet Thewy has no idea, technically, about the precise implied odds, but it don't seem to stop him winning.

Books teach implied odds, don't they?

yes they do, they dont teach you how to get ur money in as a dog and suckout though... but even if he has no idea of the "odds" (and id be surprised if he dint, hes a canny chap).. his play there shows definite knowledge of implied odds (calling 2.2k with the chance to win 50k more) and leverage in poker (ie the ability to use his stack to get people to fold on the flop) so it displays a lot of "skills" you would read about in books, even if he couldn't reel off all the technical jargon. Go on, give a book a try, you will enjoy it!

[M3boy]

The Cash-Game was £200 sit-down, Dealers Choice.

Almost my first hand was  , I was up against  , & the flop & turn were  ........Bingo!

Then, at 6 card Omaha, I have J-J-x-x-x-x, & we see a board of J-J-4-9-Q. My oppo was holding Q-Q-9-9-x-x........How unlucky was he?

Then, at Super-Stud, I am dealt trips, but with one card to come, in a 6 way affair, all my out cards for the house are on the table. (What is the last card called in Super-Stud, the "down card"?). But 2 guys Pass to some lively action, there are not enough cards for the final round, so several of my "outs" get shuffled back into the deck, & I hit on the end. Amazingly, ALL 3 of my opponents either miss their low draw, or are on a high only, so instead of the expectd split pot, I scoop.

So after 30 minutes my £200 is £1,200, after an hour I'm up to £2,600, & I just pretty much shut up shop thereafter, eventually cashing in £2,315, for a £2,115 profit. This is HUGE money to me, & I'm just made up. Luckbox, or what?

Jim McShane was casting envious eyes at the table, too - he was looking at £1,400 at best for the Comp, as the last 5, including him, chooped, & took £1k each, with £400 extra to the winner. He'd have paid £500 for my seat I think, as there were one or two on the table that had no idea, to be honest. But you can't beat luck, whoever you are, so without really "playing" I had a wicked night.

I only lost 2 big pots all night really, on both occasions trying the Omaha "bare Ace" coup, & it failed both times. This trick used to work a few years back, & it's amazing that in 6 Card Omaha folks call with sub-nuts, but they do, & it just don't get the job done any more. Which, in a way, is a good thing I suppose, these are the oppos we dream of having on our table - so long as we don't out-think ourselves by getting too cute.

So I eventually called time - the Table was too good for me by now, it had filled with good players with one eye on my juicy stack, so I poodled home with a nice few bob in my pocket. If I decide to go to Paris, uising the rather illogical logic I do, I see myself as sort of freerolling now. Then again, I don't really wanna waste £2k......

Nice work Tikay - the dealers choice cash game is a little gold mine - against the right players.

Bare Ace only works against the "few" good players, against the rest, dont even give it a second thought - it will NEVER work.

As for the comp, Jim finalling again is of no suprise, but if we were on the same table, he wouldnt of. You see, he has never won an all in coup against me at Luton.

I went deep again but no lolly. There was this one kid who joined our table, 3 tables left and was sitting in seat 5 (we were still 10 handed so he was splitting the dealer). I was in seat 8 (one of the seats with no room behind the line) and as such, my cards were always infront of the line (with a card protector on, or me holding them). Well this Kid says to the dealer "His cards are dead" pointing to my cards, not once but a few times "they are over the line and they are dead" he kept repeating.

"Excuse me?" I enquire gracefully, but he declined to repeat it directly to me. Fair enough and all is forgotten about. But he seemed to have a chip on his shoulder from that point on. When we lost a player, we were told 9 handed from now on. So I remove the spare chair and say to him "You need to move round a little m8, as we are now 9 habded, you need to be opposite the dealer". There was no reaction from him, so I assumed he didnt hear me so I repeated it. He then says "I heard you the first time" but still does not move. Now as I am in seat 8 I cannot complain too much but I thought this to be very ignorant of him so decided a different tact and repeat it again and add "so that the people in seats 1 to 4 have a little room", he then moves a little, but nowhere near opposit the dealer. "English must be too complicated for him, opposite being such a big word" I say to the rest of the table. Well he still didnt move but he was now on mega tilt and starring at me lol.
Anyway, a few hands later he has KK vs QQ all in preflop and the Q came on the river.
I just couldnt resist..................... "Unlucky M8" I said "but thats Karma!"

Enough waffle, congrats on the cash game again Tony, hope to see more of you on the DC game in future

[tikay]

Totalise, after a long & detailed - & thoroughly entertaining reply - said......

All of this is in my most humble of opnions, and sorry for sidetracking your thread, long may it continue

Hijacking the thread? No way, I was seeking debate, & I want debate on the thread.

Thank you for your reply, which I need to think about some more.

Thanks also to M3Boy for his Luton story, especially the one about Mr Bloody Awkward Rude-Mannered Arsehole. As to the DC Cash Game, yes, the players broke very clearly into two categories - those that really could play, & some Hold 'Em players who really thought they could play DC. Where do these guys get their cash from, they must do tens of thousands over a year?

[TightEnd]

I know of one Luton regular, no names, does £60,000 a year self admittedly in Tournaments and cash games there

I don't play the DC these days, got to be better ways of making a living than pretending I am better than the likes of Jim McShane or can match the muscle of a Chandra Khajuria in that!

Tourney wise, I'd add some like Danny Samson to your list and say there are 25 decent players, of whom 15 are likely to be in the field any given night. Beyond that, its just a case of riding out the short term swings and money can and is being made by  the 25. 

[MANTIS01]

I am a pure tournament player and I have never been a fan of placing emphasis on the mathematics of a particular situation. In cash you can rightly say that all things being equal...abiding by the maths will render you a longterm winner...because the short term luck factor will even itself out and in the long run the maths will prevail.

But in cash it is much easier to use the expressions all things being equal and long term etc because there is no URGENCY.

In tournaments the additional factor of the clock means that things can never be equal. Things are always changing and as a player you need to be alive to the changes and act accordingly. As far as I am concerned there is no longterm in tournament poker because you will never be faced with each thoroughly unique situation again. It is here and then it is gone. I would much rather make a longterm losing play that wins me a tournament today than a longterm winning one that knocks me out but may win me a tournament tomorrow. Money today is much better than the potential of money tomorrow.

In tournaments it is all about assessing unique situations and taking the appropriate action. To focus on maths is to focus on the cards you hold. But more relevant than cards are factors such as time pressures, relation of your stack size to the average stack/chip leader, opponents, and your table image. If you are becoming uncompetitive then the more marginal gambles you will be forced to take on or you simply wont survive. So stepping outside the maths for a hand and doubling up could really have a dramatic impact on your tournament...you could go on to win it!

So although you can work out the odds for that one particular hand, how on earth do you factor into the equation the massive future effect that gamble has on your tournament as a whole? It's impossible. Calling for your flush and hitting, even though the maths were wrong, means you can now afford to call that raise with suited connectors and hey presto you hit the straight. So you create a snowball rolling down the mountain and your tournament now has the forward impetus it lacked a moment ago. Some days you hit draws and you go on a rush of cards but some days you couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo. This is not mathematical. You absolutely need luck to win a tournament and "feeling" when the time is right, ALL factors considered, to try and create that snowball is what tournament success is all about.