More Luck in Poker than most people think...............

[M3boy]

No, I am not talking about "getting lucky" and outdrawing someone

Or even good luck of running AA into KK (etc)

I am talking of the "hidden" luck that most people ignore.

Funny enough, Danny Samson was talking to me about this subject just last wednesday, he got table moved straight into the BB 3 times in a row which effectively cost him his tournament.

The same thing happened to me in Torquay this weekend. Having just posted the BB and SB , our table broke and I drew a new seat - straight into the BB again. Not too bad you would think, but in late stages of a comp (ie blinds 1500 3000 and running ante of 300) that means 10200 in blinds in 4 hands.

I hadnt given this much thought before, until now.

I was always a "non" believer of the "luck evens itself out" theory - reasons? well the odds say you will win as many 50/50's as you loose, BUT the luck factor STILL exists, because the ones you win may not be as important as the ones you loose.

eg : you play 100 x 50/50's . 50 are early on in tournaments, 50 are late on in tournaments. Odds say you win 50%, but if the 50% you win are all in early stages of a tourney and the 50% you loose are all in late stages of a tourney - Although the odds have evened themselves out, the luck has not.

So, what %age of Poker would you say is Luck and why?

(This is not a winge post, just an interesting debate)

[RED-DOG]

Well I'm lucky enough to be playing instead of working.

[M3boy]

Well I'm lucky enough to be playing instead of working.

Nice quote - I like it 

[TightEnd]

in a comp last week I got moved to table balance as it reached my BB three times in one level, went 30 mins without posting a blind!

[matt674]

eg : you play 100 x 50/50's . 50 are early on in tournaments, 50 are late on in tournaments. Odds say you win 50%, but if the 50% you win are all in early stages of a tourney and the 50% you loose are all in late stages of a tourney - Although the odds have evened themselves out, the luck has not.

Which is why in tournament poker you want to try avoid taking 50/50 shots especially if your tournament life depends on it.

As for the rest such as the seat redraws i believe that if you play enough tournaments and you are a good enough player to counteract any such "bad luck" then it isn't much of a factor in the long run - afterall how many times does your table get broken just before the blinds come to you only to find that when you move to the new table you miss a hand because you've been moved into where the small blind was?

a quote i have used a few times on blonde in the past when it comes to talking about luck in poker.......

Sklansky took a quote from Bobby Baldwin just after the main event of the 1981 WSOP main event and interpreted it as follows:

"expert players do not rely on luck, they are at war with it. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible. They figure they're getting the best of it, and they leave the lucky draws to their weaker opponents. To the extent that they are getting the best of it, they will win more than they lose. Over the long run everybody gets the same proportion of good and bad cards, of winning and losing hands. Beginning poker players rely on big hands and lucky draws. Expert poker players use their skills to minimize their losses on the bad hands and maximize their profits on the big hands. They also are able to judge better than others when a big hand is not the best hand and when a small hand is the best hand."

i guess the same would apply to good and bad luck situations such as seat redraws

[doubleup]

he got table moved straight into the BB 3 times in a row

Three opportunities to resteal - lucky man.

[Snatiramas]

I have never been lucky...every single win has just been skill. Also I have never stranded myself on a beach in Spain. I am seven stone in weight and only five foot four tall.

I used to think about the luck like this post but let's be honest all of these things balance out over the long run. I have been lucky in poker in the trips and money I have won etc. but I have been luckier in the fact that it has brought into a world of truly interesting and varied people outside of my normal circle.

We the players are so lucky, we joust, laugh, compete, moan but at the end of it all share a common experience and just occassionally get proven right.

[Claw75]

nice post Snat

[The_duke]

I was always a "non" believer of the "luck evens itself out" theory - reasons? well the odds say you will win as many 50/50's as you loose, BUT the luck factor STILL exists, because the ones you win may not be as important as the ones you loose.

eg : you play 100 x 50/50's . 50 are early on in tournaments, 50 are late on in tournaments. Odds say you win 50%, but if the 50% you win are all in early stages of a tourney and the 50% you loose are all in late stages of a tourney - Although the odds have evened themselves out, the luck has not.

People seem to talk about luck as being "good" only. However any game that uses a randomly delivered method of distribution means every hand is luck.

It was good luck that I got KK pre flop and my opponent got AQ. It was bad luck that the flop came A72. The 50/50 rule is Bad vs Good and if that is taken to the evening out of hands then you should in the example above have 50/50 early on and 50/50 late on.  Of course the way the good luck is played (ie maximise the win/know your opponent etc) against the way bad luck is played (ie don't chase/fish/continue in a pot that looks lost) helps a bit to swing luck (whether bad or good) in your favour.

But hey why listen to me I still have to work to fund my 'Hobby'  

[tikay]

Over time, good & bad luck will even out. It just will.

Much luck is in the eye of the beholder.

Last week, in 4 consecutive Live Tourneys, I had KK bust by 77 (Final, but cash-bubbled), KKK beat by 9-T, flopped Broadway straight beat by Q-8, & A-A by 4-4.

In EVERY case I was the lower of the two stacks, so the problem was not the beat, but my earlier play. (Though the Broadway straight happened after 7 hands of a £300 Freeze).

And the A-A by 4-4. Well I was comped into the tourney, so saved £550.

And the other two? I was playing with Bankroll I'd won in other Tourneys, & nobody ever won a Tourney - NOBODY - without a few strokes of luck.

Look wider. Luck is not just the bad beat we remember, it's everything. Anyone who can afford to play Poker is lucky to start with.

Forget luck. it will happen, like rainy days, & there's nowt you can do about it. It's part of life, & art of poker. Chess is largely luck-free. We choose to play poker instead.

Great thread Paul, nice one.

[Graham C]

I posted 6 blinds in 7 hands on blonde poker the other day at 1000/2000 blinds,

SXXt out of luck that night I telll ya!

Saying that, I was playing a satellite to another satellite not that long ago and was moved from UTG to the CO on the bubble, if I hadn't have been moved, I wouldn't have made it through bar some luck on the flop, but thankfully it didn't come to that.

I guess it evens out but I think it's more your ability to cope with it that matters too.  If you shrug it off, then I think you suffer less, but if you start getting down and moaning then it's likely to happen again and effect you even more.   You need to be in the right frame of mind.

It's all karma man.  Stay cool

[tikay]

Silo Graham get's it spot on.

I guess it evens out but I think it's more your ability to cope with it that matters too.  If you shrug it off, then I think you suffer less, but if you start getting down and moaning then it's likely to happen again and effect you even more.   You need to be in the right frame of mind.

It's all karma man.  Stay cool

[LeKnave]

eg : you play 100 x 50/50's . 50 are early on in tournaments, 50 are late on in tournaments. Odds say you win 50%, but if the 50% you win are all in early stages of a tourney and the 50% you loose are all in late stages of a tourney - Although the odds have evened themselves out, the luck has not.

Which is why in tournament poker you want to try avoid taking 50/50 shots especially if your tournament life depends on it.

I think he was just using 50/50's as an example, the same could apply to 80/20's.  If you're unfortunate enough to lose ur 20% worth of them when deep. And winning your 80% worth in early situations.  Again, the ''luck'' wont have evened out.  Just the ''odds''.

But i think you should compare your early 80/20's with other early 80/20's.  And late 80/20's with other late 80/20's.  And surely in the long run, they will even out by themselves.

[RED-DOG]

Every time someone gets lucky, his opponent must, by definition, get unlucky, and vice versa.

 

[taximan007]

I think its true that most people believe it evens itself out over time.

I also think alot of players only remember their BAD luck, not the good.