I don't agree JungleCat and I also fail to see the contradiction.
Ok, i'll explain as best I can
You put a lot of stock in your analysis on a flexible approach, giving yourself options, which I think is a good approach to have. Yet strangely here you are concretely committed to the idea that you MUST commit all your chips here or fold. There are situations where this is the case, but this is not one of them in my view. Poker is not a black and white game. You do not say I AM AHEAD HERE or I AM BEHIND HERE with 100% degrees of probability in the majority of cases. You just assess the situation as best you can and make what you believe to be the optimal move. Raising isn't optimal in my view, as the gain from the extra 30-60k chips is so small when you are ahead, whereas the loss of your last 32k chips is significantly more important.
You place a lot of value on your remaining $30k tournament chips and that's fine...but what about the minimum $50k tournament chips you are about to commit to this pot? How much value are you placing on those? You are about to call off the majority of your chips HOPING you have the best hand, not only that, considering your other opponent is already COUNTING CHIPS, you are also HOPING it doesn't get any more expensive. For me that is a lot of hope. Especially considering your strong position
This is clearly a different issue. The issue being whether you should call given the combined strength of Chandler's bet and Maple Syrup's apparent physical tells of strength. Although i am just going by your description of chandler, I think it's safe to say you are beating his range with a straight. He's an aggressive player, and if you don't look up aggressive players with straights you'll be bullied mercilessly out of most tournaments you enter.
Maple Syrup, again has a history of calling down bets with both weak and strong hands, although clearly here she would have to be off her rocker to call two big bets without something to show down, so I would expect her to be tabling a decent hand if/ when she calls, although this could conceivably be a hand you beat.
If, as you say, a competent player can win with $30k then the same player can also win with $80k. If you call the $50k what are you going to do when faced with the push from UTG? Are you now folding....and if you are why did you call....and if you're not why didn't you push?
I actually said a competent player would have all but locked up the win should they WIN this pot as they would be the runaway chip leader, so gaining another 30-60k in chips is of little benefit, whilst losing them is of quite big importance from a tournament perspective.
I think the time to decide if you have the best hand is before you commit a cent more on the river. If you don't think you're ahead then folding leaves you in a strong position, but if you do think you have the best hand then why are you just calling? This is a crying call where you are not sure where you are and just hoping for the best. That might fair enough for some but when you place much value on $30k....to treat $50k with so little regard is in fact the contradiction you speak of.
Sorry but this isn't logical. It comes back to the earlier point. You have a strong hand, yet one that is potentially vulnerable as it is not a nut hand and you are facing strength from two players. If you have a very strong impression that Chandler/ MS has a house then you fold but closing your eyes and saying "I am ahead" or "I am behind" is not a good idea. YOU DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE! Often in poker that's the case. Being aware of that fact makes you a better player. When someone makes a late position raise in a tournament you look at 45s, his stack size and how many chips you have left and reraise him on a resteal, you do so because you feel you have a high chance of making him fold, but of course you are aware that from time to time you will have read the situation wrong and will walk into a big hand.
So, ok, look Chandler up, giving yourself a smallish but workable stack should you be wrong, but please don't put in a virtually valueless riase.
If you decide to call rather than fold/ raise, you are put to a decision should you be check raised allin by maple syrup the initial preflop raiser. It's a tough one too. Are they capable of doing this without a house? I would say it's very unlikely and I would assign an extremely high degree of probability towards them having a house if they check raise given their history of immense passivity. So sick as it would be I would probably give up the straight if check raised, despite the obviously excellent pot odds and the fact you do have a strong hand. Some players might well disagree with this though.
Remember though that she is quite capable of calling with a worse hand and will likely play all hands but houses passively so a small subsiduary benefit of calling is it increases the chances of calling with AA or other hands you are beating.
With this hand, although the results were nicely orientated in your favour, if you put AA in Maple's hand and A9 in Chandler's, the hand could quite easily play out in identical fashion.....
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