What do you make of these stats?

[doubleup]

I started playing cash again on Ladbrokes in May and have done ok except that err I can't seem to beat 6 handed 200nl..

My overall stats for 55k hands (200nl to 1000nl, mostly 400 with 32k) are profit of 2.55 ptbbs/100 but for 200nl I am 16k hands a a loss of 2.41 ptbbs?

I suspect that the problem might be that there are quite a lot of loose passive semi short stacked players and I've been paying them off a bit too much as they are not threatening my stack, whereas at higher limits I am concious of attempts by fully stacked opponents to create big pots, so I tend to back off dangerous situations.  I also think that I'm losing a bit by inducing bluffs which aren't made so often by lower limit players i.e. I'm just giving free cards and they bet if they hit and check if they don't.

Anyone have any thoughts?

[bolt pp]

It means you're crap

[doubleup]

It means you're crap

So do you think I should stick to the higher limits and give up on the 200?

[deepreacher]

post the rest of your stats, vip, pfr, agg etc

plus 16k hands at one level could just be some bad variance. I had a 30k hands barely break even spell a few months ago.

[doubleup]

post the rest of your stats, vip, pfr, agg etc

plus 16k hands at one level could just be some bad variance. I had a 30k hands barely break even spell a few months ago.

Not really much difference between 400 and 200 except river agg hmmm not sure why that is.

200  18/10  3.57  2.19  2.79

400  18/10  3.26 2.10 1.57


ps just dropped another 3 buyins arghhhhhh - I think the problem is the random madness of my opponents.  Here's a typical hand vs semi shortstacked loose fishy type

me posted the small blind - $1.00
n/a posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to davmcg: Jack of Hearts, Jack of Clubs
sslft raised - $6.00
n/a folded
n/a folded
me raised - $19.00
n/a folded
sslft called - $19.00

** Dealing the flop: 4 of Spades, 4 of Hearts, 3 of Hearts
me bet - $20.00
sslft called - $20.00

** Dealing the turn: 8 of Hearts
me bet - $80.00
sslft went all-in - $40.80

** Dealing the river: 9 of Spades
me shows: Jack of Hearts, Jack of Clubs
sslft shows: 4 of Clubs, Ace of Clubs
sslft wins $159.60 from the main pot

The point here is I dont play this hand this way against a full stack - so maybe this is the leak, being to aggro vs these players.

[AlexMartin]

post the rest of your stats, vip, pfr, agg etc

plus 16k hands at one level could just be some bad variance. I had a 30k hands barely break even spell a few months ago.

Not really much difference between 400 and 200 except river agg hmmm not sure why that is.

200  18/10  3.57  2.19  2.79

400  18/10  3.26 2.10 1.57


ps just dropped another 3 buyins arghhhhhh - I think the problem is the random madness of my opponents.  Here's a typical hand vs semi shortstacked loose fishy type
me posted the small blind - $1.00
n/a posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to davmcg: Jack of Hearts, Jack of Clubs
sslft raised - $6.00
n/a folded
n/a folded
me raised - $19.00
n/a folded
sslft called - $19.00

** Dealing the flop: 4 of Spades, 4 of Hearts, 3 of Hearts
me bet - $20.00
sslft called - $20.00

** Dealing the turn: 8 of Hearts
me bet - $80.00
sslft went all-in - $40.80

** Dealing the river: 9 of Spades
me shows: Jack of Hearts, Jack of Clubs
sslft shows: 4 of Clubs, Ace of Clubs
sslft wins $159.60 from the main pot

The point here is I dont play this hand this way against a full stack - so maybe this is the leak, being to aggro vs these players.

If this is a typical hand your answer is just to play a few mil hands v this way and retire in 2009.

[totalise]

The point here is I dont play this hand this way against a full stack - so maybe this is the leak, being to aggro vs these players.

you might well have leaks, i got no idea, but that hand isn't an example of one.

I think the problem is the random madness of my opponents.

well this can sure skew your stats in the short-term, losing a full buyin pot when you "should" have won it will cause $400 (100ptbb) swings in your P/L, and spreading this over a smallish sample of hands can swing what should be winning data to losing data quite easily if its running bad, and obviously vice versa.

saying all that, if you are checking turns to snap bluffs off against passive people, then you are losing a shit load of value coz they overpay when they are drawing anyways, and you aren't gaining equity that way, and they dont bluff that often when they miss, so you aren't making it back that way, whereas you do against the more aggro players higher up.

Cliff notes, based on the info you provided, who knows.

[doubleup]

Bumped for a somewhat pathetic brag.  200nl now 38k hands for a profit of.......   .03 ptbbs (lol), turned around from a low point of 15 buyins down.  Main changes: standard raise 4bbs and not auto c betting against loosey gooseys (this set up more slow play opportunities), but betting turn if chkd to twice.

[kinboshi]

Nice one.  Good to see you turn the stats around.

[AlexMartin]

Doubleup nice turnaround! Wp that man.

Tbh though m8 50k breakeven stretches are not uncommon. The main problem with looking at ur stats this way is that ur sample size just isnt big enough. I like the notes on increasing to 4*BB, for a solid player this is a v smart idea. Also i like the cbetting thing, but always feel like i owe my customers a bet regardless of my holdings.

[Longy]

Doubleup nice turnaround! Wp that man.

Tbh though m8 50k breakeven stretches are not uncommon. The main problem with looking at ur stats this way is that ur sample size just isnt big enough. I like the notes on increasing to 4*BB, for a solid player this is a v smart idea. Also i like the cbetting thing, but always feel like i owe my customers a bet regardless of my holdings.

Agreed, seriously 16k hand is nothing,varience can account for this pure and simple.

My standard raise on laddies is 3.5 times because im a pedantic git who thinks this ideal, even tho I have to type in every time because the buttons don't do that raise.

Grats on the turnaround.

[LuckyLloyd]

FUZZRULE:

"If playing 6 handed cash at blinds of 1 / 2 or lower; and you have one pair (including AA and TPTK); and are raised at any point postflop - fold."

The above is from a good Irish player. Sounds a bit extreme, but actually makes more sense as you think about it more.

totalise is right - value bet, value bet, value bet, value bet. Bet / folding is generally a much better line than check / calling. And when a dude who is 29 / 3 / 0.5 suddenly wakes up and starts raising; betting and 3 betting a hand it is time to fold.

[AlexMartin]

FUZZRULE:

"If playing 6 handed cash at blinds of 1 / 2 or lower; and you have one pair (including AA and TPTK); and are raised at any point postflop - fold."The above is from a good Irish player. Sounds a bit extreme, but actually makes more sense as you think about it more.

totalise is right - value bet, value bet, value bet, value bet. Bet / folding is generally a much better line than check / calling. And when a dude who is 29 / 3 / 0.5 suddenly wakes up and starts raising; betting and 3 betting a hand it is time to fold.

I like this generally, but go to PkrTracker and look @ ur big pairs in the hand replayer. You would wipe off 10-30% of your profit throughout the year if you followed this to the letter imo.

[LuckyLloyd]

FUZZRULE:

"If playing 6 handed cash at blinds of 1 / 2 or lower; and you have one pair (including AA and TPTK); and are raised at any point postflop - fold."The above is from a good Irish player. Sounds a bit extreme, but actually makes more sense as you think about it more.

totalise is right - value bet, value bet, value bet, value bet. Bet / folding is generally a much better line than check / calling. And when a dude who is 29 / 3 / 0.5 suddenly wakes up and starts raising; betting and 3 betting a hand it is time to fold.

I like this generally, but go to PkrTracker and look @ ur big pairs in the hand replayer. You would wipe off 10-30% of your profit throughout the year if you followed this to the letter imo.

Well, following anything to the letter wouldn't be good. And it starts to become less true as you go through the levels from 25NL to 200NL.

[jakally]

FUZZRULE:

"If playing 6 handed cash at blinds of 1 / 2 or lower; and you have one pair (including AA and TPTK); and are raised at any point postflop - fold."The above is from a good Irish player. Sounds a bit extreme, but actually makes more sense as you think about it more.

totalise is right - value bet, value bet, value bet, value bet. Bet / folding is generally a much better line than check / calling. And when a dude who is 29 / 3 / 0.5 suddenly wakes up and starts raising; betting and 3 betting a hand it is time to fold.

I like this generally, but go to PkrTracker and look @ ur big pairs in the hand replayer. You would wipe off 10-30% of your profit throughout the year if you followed this to the letter imo.

I like it.

I would take overpairs out of the equation and judge them on a case by case basis, but there is a lot of sense in this.