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Author Topic: A fun once for those that think they know %ges.  (Read 3311 times)
boldie
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2007, 08:28:42 PM »

given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).

how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case.

Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously.

You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %.

I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2007, 08:35:20 PM »

given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).

how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case.

Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously.

You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %.

I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.


tbh it was a complete guess, my brain hurts too much to work it out properly.
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boldie
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2007, 08:38:37 PM »

given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).

how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case.

Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously.

You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %.

I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.


tbh it was a complete guess, my brain hurts too much to work it out properly.

like I said...I just know what the late night pokershows tell me and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to find Jesse May was talking piash all this time  Smiley  I know F all about pot-odds..especially in a situation like this
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2007, 08:44:30 PM »

given the information then the guy with 6's is about 20% to beat Kings as is the guy with 9's, the guy with an Ace is about 35% to beat Kings so Kings are still favourite as there are more cards in the kings favour as kings don't need to hit so I reckon Kings are still about 55% to win. One other thing in the Kings favour is that all 3 of his opponents are actually taking some straightening card possibilities from each other (and maybe flush possibilities).

how can Kings be 55% here? there's no way that can be the case.

Any pokershow where they show the stats kings and Queens show up at roundabout 34% when there are more than 3 other people in the pot. Pre-flop you're one in 3-ish..if you survive the flop your odds obviously go up tremendously.

You are a favourite over the other players so you're chance of winning the pot are higher than the others chances ..but that doesn't mean that you are more than 50%.it just means your % is higher than everyones individual %.

I might be way off here and that just means I haven't been paying attention when Late night poker or something was on but I reckon there's no chance in hell you win this one more than half the time statistically.


Flea your maths doesn't quite add up, they need to addup to 100 including splits.
I generally work that any random hand v a high pp is about 15-20% so 3x15 leaves you 55% without splits or 3x20 leaves 40% so somewhere in between is about right.
so 47.5% Cheesy
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2007, 08:49:29 PM »

about 33%

30% ace queen win

19% 66 win

18% 99 win

at a guess


perhaps i should be folding 99 preflop.............bad hand
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2007, 12:49:39 AM »

i'd guess a tad under 50...off to check how close that is....

...also the relative suits will have a smallish impact on the %s too
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AlexMartin
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2007, 03:06:30 PM »

The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.

Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2007, 03:32:04 PM »

did M3 come 4th?

no way on earth he came near to winning the hand?
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kinboshi
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2007, 03:38:27 PM »

Quote from: AlexMartin
The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup.

I was right then...  
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boldie
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2007, 04:48:42 PM »

The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.

Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.

wow that is high..and Jesse May (maybe not surprisingly) is full of it..OK it's not him but the graphics guys.

Looks like I might need to gets me da stove
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« Reply #25 on: October 02, 2007, 04:52:55 PM »

The kings are in fact 45% to win this coup. I was suprised at how high they were tbh. I tried working it out the wrong way when i was on the table, adding up the combined probabilities of KK holding against each individual hand. Eg its 4-1 v a pp (66+99) + AQ has a 30% chance of outdrawing the kings.

Quite suprising really. Pokerstove is a wicked bit of kit btw. Play around with it and try some matchups. If ur sooooooted ur never that far behind.

I worked it out the same way as you and then added some back to the kings to take into account the times more than one of the opposing hands hit.
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« Reply #26 on: October 04, 2007, 08:18:32 AM »

I remember this hand.

What is important is the stack sizes.

UTG has circa 8k, UTG+1 has circa 45k, UTG+3 has circa 7k and I have circa 40k

No one elseat the table has over 12k.

UTG has AQ
UTG+1 has 66
UTG + 3 has 99

« Last Edit: October 04, 2007, 08:43:59 AM by M3boy » Logged
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« Reply #27 on: October 04, 2007, 10:58:33 AM »

did M3 come 4th?

no way on earth he came near to winning the hand?

We haven't heard a bad beat whinge... I can only assume he won! Cheesy
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kinboshi
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« Reply #28 on: October 04, 2007, 10:59:13 AM »

...or folded.
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« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2007, 11:12:01 AM »

It says in OP that he called.. Keep up..
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