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Poker Hand Analysis
River decision cash
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Topic: River decision cash (Read 1511 times)
Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10064
Go Ducks!
River decision cash
«
on:
November 05, 2007, 04:21:17 PM »
Me and CO know each other well having played alot together. My notes say that he plays strong hands hard, but is generally a weak passive calling station. He probably views me as a bit over aggro especially preflop, i run 23/18 normally and was running 26/21 at this table.
OK what do i do on this river note villan has about a pot size bet back.
Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Stack sizes:
Hero: $101.24
UTG+1: $57.06
CO: $71.96
Button: $33.70
SB: $105.32
BB: $107.77
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with
Hero raises to $3.5, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.
Flop:
($8.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls.
Turn:
($20.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $16, CO calls.
River:
($52.5, 2 players)
Hero
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LuckyLloyd
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 625
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #1 on:
November 05, 2007, 04:30:48 PM »
Just shove for value. Not close. By the description offered of his game and how he views you it sounds as if he can definitely pay you off with worse - and you aren't going to fold now.
Plus, if he is a weak calling station type, he sounds unlikely to turn one pair or a weaker King into a bluff on that river - or value bet light. So checking so that he can bluff doesn't seem to apply here.
So shove. Reload if he was on the flushdraw or open ender (which of course is part of his range but so what) and just shrug the aul shoulders.
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"
All glory comes from daring to begin
" - Eugene F. Ware.
NoflopsHomer
Malcontent
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 20207
Enchantment? Enchantment!
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #2 on:
November 05, 2007, 04:45:31 PM »
Are you going to pass if he pushes? No. If he has a hand that's beating you then it's all the money will go in anyway. If he has a hand worse than yours he might check behind you, but he might also call with a worse hand if you push. Avoid the negative freeroll.
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UpTheMariners
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1888
We Only Sing When We're Fishing
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #3 on:
November 05, 2007, 11:42:00 PM »
value bet river fold if he raises.
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Moskvich
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1008
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #4 on:
November 06, 2007, 09:16:45 AM »
Quote
value bet river fold if he raises
Even though if you bet half pot and he shoves you're getting 5 to 1..?
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8045
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #5 on:
November 06, 2007, 02:46:52 PM »
Quote from: Moskvich on November 06, 2007, 09:16:45 AM
Quote
value bet river fold if he raises
Even though if you bet half pot and he shoves you're getting 5 to 1..?
He aint jamming a hand you beat unless he's a donk. You cant feed the kids with value.
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LuckyLloyd
Sr. Member
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Posts: 625
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #6 on:
November 06, 2007, 06:06:02 PM »
Bet folding this river is the worst possible line available given stacksizes; the description of the villain; and our suspicions of how the villain perceives our play. You would have to call his shove, given that he IS pushing every Kx hand here you beat - and the price you would be getting to call that shove would be ridiculous.
Note that villian is not fully topped up to start the hand. That is usually an indication of donkishness.
As I said earlier, this really is a shove. It isn't close.
Shoving >>>>>> Bet calling >>>> Check Calling >>>> Bet folding.
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"
All glory comes from daring to begin
" - Eugene F. Ware.
Longy
Professional Hotel Locator.
Learning Centre Group
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10064
Go Ducks!
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #7 on:
November 06, 2007, 07:05:28 PM »
I indeed did value shove trying to get called be kx and 77-qq. Unfortuanately villan insta called with
, maybe i got touch results orientated on this one.
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UpTheMariners
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1888
We Only Sing When We're Fishing
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #8 on:
November 06, 2007, 08:15:26 PM »
5/1 or million to one i know when im beat and im not putting and cent in this pot. if the guy is capable of bluffing you have to question why he is still playing .5/1? having now noticed the co isnt fully stacked i may play the river differently.
if he has qq-77 hes not calling on the river when you have bet every street.
«
Last Edit: November 06, 2007, 08:18:16 PM by UpTheMariners
»
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Moskvich
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1008
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #9 on:
November 06, 2007, 09:20:31 PM »
Quote
5/1 or million to one i know when im beat and im not putting and cent in this pot. if the guy is capable of bluffing you have to question why he is still playing .5/1? having now noticed the co isnt fully stacked i may play the river differently.
if he has qq-77 hes not calling on the river when you have bet every street.
So you're saying check river, fold if he shoves?
Some people are capable of bluffing at .5/1, both the best players and the worst players at that level. There's people who take the game seriously and play 'properly' at every level. Looks from the notes here that he's neither of these but somewhere in the middle, which does suggest he's unlikely to bluff here.
My problem here would be whether or not he knows whether he's bluffing. He's got no reason to put you on the flush here, and he probably doubts whether you've got a K, since plenty of players wouldn't play AK this fast, flush draw or no flush draw. I think a worse K is quite likely to get to the river and think "sod it I've got this far and I'm probably ahead" and shove if you bet. Even TT-QQ might well think the same. If he's got this far with a hand like that then the river's a great card for him, isn't it?
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RichEO
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1493
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #10 on:
November 15, 2007, 05:15:17 AM »
I don't mind check calling:
1. he might not push for his whole stack with the flush or full house and you've saved some money.
2. he might decide to represent and you catch him bluffing where he wouldn't have called.
3. he might himself value bet a Kx and you break even / lose a bit.
Then of course he could check behind, the pot CAN be big enough already you know
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8045
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: River decision cash
«
Reply #11 on:
November 19, 2007, 07:08:16 AM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on November 05, 2007, 04:30:48 PM
Just shove for value. Not close. By the description offered of his game and how he views you it sounds as if he can definitely pay you off with worse - and you aren't going to fold now.
Plus, if he is a weak calling station type, he sounds unlikely to turn one pair or a weaker King into a bluff on that river - or value bet light. So checking so that he can bluff doesn't seem to apply here.
So shove. Reload if he was on the flushdraw or open ender (which of course is part of his range but so what) and just shrug the aul shoulders.
interesting view.
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