Omaha - who's the favourite

[chrisbruce]

At the time I struggled to comprehend this play regardless of the result whats your opinion before I reveal the winner.....


***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 271893332 *****
PL $2.50/$5 Omaha - Monday, November 05, 23:10:20 GMT 2007
Table Rhone 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of active players : 6
Seat 1: W4LLY ( $719.15 )
Seat 2: Curly123 ( $310 )
Seat 3: BONESAW17 ( $934.37 )
Seat 4: Huztler ( $1,044.58 )
Seat 5: Doooom ( $454.40 )
Seat 6: Hitandrun ( $899.05 )
Doooom posts small blind [$2.50]
Hitandrun posts big blind [$5]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hitandrun [ , , , As ]
W4LLY folds
Curly123 raises to [$17.50]
BONESAW17 calls [$17.50]
Huztler folds
Doooom calls [$15]
Hitandrun raises to [$87.50]
Curly123 calls [$70]
BONESAW17 calls [$70]
Doooom calls [$70]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
Doooom checks
Hitandrun bets [$350]
Curly123 folds
BONESAW17 goes all-in
BONESAW17 raises to [$846.87]
Doooom folds
Hitandrun calls [$461.55]
Hitandrun goes all-in
Returning uncalled bet [$35.32] to BONESAW17
** Showdown **
BONESAW17 shows [ , , , ]
Hitandrun shows [ , , , As ]

[jakally]

I'm no good with Omaha odds, but I think it's pretty close, and he may even be a marginal favourite.

If that's the case, his play on the flop is obviously fine.

It's a lot to pay PF with what is a pretty trashy hand.

[M3boy]

he is favorite, but marginal

The preflop call is terrible with that rubbish and with 3 to act after him.

[GlasgowBandit]

Terrible call pre flop for what its cost him, on the he's a marginal fav with an up and down draw and a pair against your pair with no draw.

[Sunday8pm]

Check fold is  MUST here with AAKK.

[Longines]

820 possible ways this hand ends up - he wins 469 of them, you win 351 - 57% / 43%.

[chrisbruce]

this is how the hand finished....

** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
** Hand Conclusion **
BONESAW17 wins $1,970.10 from main pot with three of a kind, Sevens
************  Game 271893332 ends  ************

Normally in that situation with 3 callers I concider my hand dead unless I flop an A K or 2 spades + to the nut flush draw. I felt flop was poor enough that I was probably still ahead and could win pot there and then. Even if Bonesaw puts me on AA I still think it is a terrible play by him as I have committed 2 much to pass now even if I am up against a flopped 2 pair.

Longines you are spot on with your % and I would love to know how you broke it down. The only way I can analyse it is with an online poker calculator which gets the same result that you do! but only gives me percentages.  when I try to manually calculate the odds  in my hamfisted way I cant get Bonesaw as the favourite

How did you work it so conclusively ?

[Karabiner]

Longines is Bonesaw in disguise 

[AlexMartin]

this is how the hand finished....

** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
** Hand Conclusion **
BONESAW17 wins $1,970.10 from main pot with three of a kind, Sevens
************  Game 271893332 ends  ************

Normally in that situation with 3 callers I concider my hand dead unless I flop an A K or 2 spades + to the nut flush draw. I felt flop was poor enough that I was probably still ahead and could win pot there and then. Even if Bonesaw puts me on AA I still think it is a terrible play by him as I have committed 2 much to pass now even if I am up against a flopped 2 pair.

Longines you are spot on with your % and I would love to know how you broke it down. The only way I can analyse it is with an online poker calculator which gets the same result that you do! but only gives me percentages.  when I try to manually calculate the odds  in my hamfisted way I cant get Bonesaw as the favourite

How did you work it so conclusively ?

Cant understand why you want to get the lot in with AAKK here.

[portfolio]

he is favorite, but marginal

The preflop call is terrible with that rubbish and with 3 to act after him.

agreed,

but if it is the sort of game  where 3 people call full pot reraises  preflop, u must except every draw to be in against you.

that  said, isolating heads up on flop cant be considered bad play, as its its not a hard fold for op.

[boldie]

I see people making these sorts of call preflop with trash loads on stars at 2-4..I don't get it but that's the way they want to play it.

I hate the call on the flop, I also think the bet is too big. every draw kills you and odds of two pair being out tere are always big in the sort of gae where people call with hands like this. Bet out 250 and you'd get the same result, there's no need to stick 350 in here. He still would have moved all in and you could fairly comfortably let go of your aces...even now you should have folded..save yourself 480$ next time.

[jakally]

Bet out 250 and you'd get the same result, there's no need to stick 350 in here. He still would have moved all in and you could fairly comfortably let go of your aces...even now you should have folded..save yourself 480$ next time.

Problem is, once you have put the $250 in you are giving yourself a $600 call into a $1450 pot, which, given the board, you are highly likely getting odds to.
Calling the push is going to be the right play more often than not.

It's either a check fold, or you are in all the way, in my opinion.

[chrisbruce]

I know my play is not gr8. having made the preflop call with Bonesaw's hand is anybody here pushing on that flop?

[doubleup]

I know my play is not gr8. having made the preflop call with Bonesaw's hand is anybody here pushing on that flop?

He knows that he is likely a favourite here as the flop is rainbow, so you can't have a flushdraw.  Something like QJT9 is his only worry, but bigger cards from you are much more likely. 

[Longines]

Chris, http://www.twodimes.net/poker is what I use - nice and simple.