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Poker Hand Analysis
Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
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Topic: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold? (Read 2219 times)
M3boy
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Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
on:
December 14, 2007, 01:33:01 PM »
This one is another that has been "bothering" me - I am loosing my way with online tourneys atm, so bear with me.
This hand occured in the $100 deepstack on ipoker.
113 entrants - $168 for 20th to 11th with 1st giving almost $4k
History - you have been VERY busy and quickly entered the top 7 where you stay until 40 people left.
You have been on the same table and have been raising alot, especially in late position - occassionally you have had to show VERY mediocre hands (such as
) as you have hit the flop.
Chip leader has 40k
You have 22k before loosing a couple of hands (coolers) and being re raised, you are now on 12.5k
Blinds 200 400
Av stack is 11k
It is folded to you on the button and you have 10 10. You make your usual raise to 1600.
SB has 5k back BB has 8k back
BB insta shoves.
I took my shot here, but should I have folded? Loosing meant being left with 4.5k (10xBB)
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TightEnd
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #1 on:
December 14, 2007, 01:37:15 PM »
with your image, I call here too
added to which the BB is short so his range against you is presumably wide-sih
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Dewi_cool
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #2 on:
December 14, 2007, 01:38:47 PM »
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The very last hand of the night goes to Dewi James, who finds ACES and talks Raymond O’Mahoney into calling his all-in preflop bet of 15k. “If I had AQ, I’d call!” says Dewi. Raymond calls holding pocket 66’s.
TheChipPrince
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #3 on:
December 14, 2007, 02:13:40 PM »
its 1 of them where you know its 80% a race, 10% overpair, 10% underpair, so with 6400 more to call, with 9800 in the pot I call unless i think i have a significant edge on the field...
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totalise
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #4 on:
December 14, 2007, 02:18:01 PM »
call very quickly, its not even a close decision, sometimes he can "resteal" with complete junk, most of the time hes shipping with any pair/A7 or so upwards, QK etc etc, even against tight Big Blinds 10/10 does very very well against their shipping range
Also if you are being busy, your usual raise should be a lot smaller then 4*bb
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M3boy
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #5 on:
December 14, 2007, 03:36:08 PM »
Quote from: totalise on December 14, 2007, 02:18:01 PM
Also if you are being busy, your usual raise should be a lot smaller then 4*bb
Yes I take your point. It was 3xBB, but on the button I was making it 4x
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JungleCat03
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #6 on:
December 14, 2007, 08:39:39 PM »
From his point of view you are relatively active and are raising on the button so he would think any pair, KQ KJ, most half decent aces, and even some junk hands are prob good enough to shove with.
Basically I'm just repeating almost verbatim what totalise said.
I think in a spot like this where the BB has 20 BBs but is below average(and shoves a button raise), his range is weighted heavily towards 88/99/TT/JJ/QQ, AJ, AQ, AK.
If he only had these cards you'd be about a 55% favourite in an overlaid pot, but he's bound to have a few other things sometimes, esp. given your image.
If you were closer to the bubble then it would tighten up his range somewhat but TT would still be good enough to call.
If he turns up with JJ QQ then that's just donkaments for you...sigh, next tournament
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scotty2hatty
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #7 on:
December 20, 2007, 12:14:55 AM »
Quote from: totalise on December 14, 2007, 02:18:01 PM
call very quickly, its not even a close decision, sometimes he can "resteal" with complete junk, most of the time hes shipping with any pair/A7 or so upwards, QK etc etc, even against tight Big Blinds 10/10 does very very well against their shipping range
Also if you are being busy, your usual raise should be a lot smaller then 4*bb
Was set to reply then read this which is pretty close to what I was gonna say. Think you doing more than taking a "shot" here, you lose? What was oppo holding?
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #8 on:
December 20, 2007, 03:29:13 PM »
Quote from: totalise on December 14, 2007, 02:18:01 PM
call very quickly, its not even a close decision, sometimes he can "resteal" with complete junk, most of the time hes shipping with any pair/A7 or so upwards, QK etc etc, even against tight Big Blinds 10/10 does very very well against their shipping range
Also if you are being busy, your usual raise should be a lot smaller then 4*bb
I agree with that.. especially the last part.
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Royal Flush
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #9 on:
December 20, 2007, 06:21:54 PM »
I make it 3BB not 4 and snap call the push, if its a live comp my chips probably beat his into the pot.
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M3boy
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #10 on:
December 20, 2007, 06:38:55 PM »
Just checking - when confidence is low, you cannot help but to doubt yourself once in a while.
I did call - The result is irrelevant.
Cheers for the comments, very re-assuring
I even went as far as to send the WHOLE tourney hand history to a couple of people whom I have the utmost respect for in the game to see if I was playing "ok"
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Royal Flush
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #11 on:
December 20, 2007, 06:55:07 PM »
I am sure they have not forgotten and will get through it sometime in the next 24hrs if they can drag themselves away from partying the week before xmas....
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celtic
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #12 on:
December 20, 2007, 07:55:33 PM »
Quote from: M3boy on December 20, 2007, 06:38:55 PM
Just checking - when confidence is low, you cannot help but to doubt yourself once in a while.
I did call - The result is irrelevant.
Cheers for the comments, very re-assuring
I even went as far as to send the WHOLE tourney hand history to a couple of people whom I have the utmost respect for in the game to see if I was playing "ok"
Will have a look thru it tonight Paul and let you know
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M3boy
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #13 on:
December 20, 2007, 08:11:59 PM »
LOL Vince - I wouldnt trouble you with such trivial matters m8
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Royal Flush
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Re: Taking this gamble? Or easy fold?
«
Reply #14 on:
December 21, 2007, 01:34:59 AM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on December 20, 2007, 06:21:54 PM
I make it 3BB not 4 and snap call the push, if its a live comp my chips probably beat his into the pot.
Turns out your OP was wrong, you did make it 3BB, as such i play it the same as you.
Going through the HH atm
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
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