Darts

[Graham C]

Never mind Boldie, you make up for it in other ways

I quite like the look of Painter this year too, he's played pretty good so far.  I did like Exercatte (spelling?) before he was knocked out.  Nice of someone to have shouted out when he was throwing to save his match though! 

Other than that, I often have a flutter on Manley, he's usually good to trade with but for some reason I missed it this year.  I'll go with him to beat van der Rassel today.

I may have a cheeky couple of pounds on Painter to beat Barney today too.

[Graham C]

Barney v Painter - what a match!

[totalise]

played very well indeed.

[bobby1]

I had a bet on painter, I really like the way hes playing. Dont fancy taylor to win it this year, only reason he won tonight was coz his opponent bottled it worse then taylor

For a nice bet I am gonna back Part at around 23 on Betfair, he plays his game last 2morrow night so when he starts 5 more players will have been knocked out, these will include either Barney or Painter as they play each other and maybe one or two other fancied players, either way with 5 players out of the mnarket you will be able to lay the bet back before he plays to lock in a profit or get yourself a free bet.

betfairs markets are pretty efficient in terms of prices layed, what you say sounds very true in theory, I just for some reason dont think this will be the case becuase i always assume that the prices have taken this into consideration. I'm not much of a sports bettor though, so its almost certain im wrong.

This isnt the strongest market to be playing that way but at the moment it is bet to 102% so with 5 players out(and the potential to have say Barney out there will be enough shortening to lay back at no worse than the 23 if, and that is the IF there is enough liquidity in the market at that time which there should be.

I will pm you a great market to play this on if you want its coming up in a few weeks so you might want to take a look even if you dont want to bet on it.

yes but its still got a lot of volume, and in any efficient market any actions to one side will lead to adjustments on the other,  I just dont see how any good winning layer would expose himself to such a "free money" play, and going back to my origional point, these markets wont allow punters with losing "trading" strategies to make mistakes like this. I'll defo be watching with interest tomorrow because I've had many thoughts like this before, but never followed them through because I just assume that places such as betfair they would already take into account stuff like this.

and I'd defo love to get a PM about the market play.

I used to trade currencies and in my mind, (and I admit again im likely wrong) when the BoE or other institutions had interest rate "meetings" imminent, the price would alter based on what the expectation was on the interest rate change, so for example if the entire world knew that the BoE would reduce rates by 0.25%, and then the BoE did reduce the interest rates by 0.25%, the exchange rates wouldn't change much because that would already have been priced into the market, so based on that, I have always insta-assumed that stuff like what you said above would also be priced into the market. I dont know if that makes any sense, but thats how I have always seen it.

The markets are deffo not as efficient as the stuff you describe above.

I have a couple of bets up there now asking for a price that is above the current fixed odds market, if these get matched then I am pretty confident that I can trade it out shorter on the off of the match, at the moment the back price is 20 which isn't a price I would want to take with the view of laying back as I dont see it being much shorter than say 17 when his match starts, at 23 ish tho I would be happy to take it and see how it goes. If Barney who is currently 4/1 and taking 20% of the market gets knocked out then it will be v interesting. I will send you that pm in a few weeks when the market comes around.

worked a treat in the end, if only i had got all my bets matched overnight. In the end I managed to get £86 quid matched at 20 and 21 and have just laid it back at 15 for a book of break even on everyone else and plus £432  on Part, I could lay the rest back and clean it out allround to about a £30  win but Im gonna leave it to run and see how it goes. Nice work Silo too, what you on here?

[Graham C]

On the Part match?  Nothing, I'd go for Part, I think he's not going to struggle in this, but the odds don't seem worth it.  He's playing well though.

[Graham C]

Part is checking out so so well.

4-0/4-1 easy

[jizzemm]

Part is checking out so so well.

4-0/4-1 easy

win this for 4-0..

[bobby1]

For me Painter and Part are playing the best darts at the moment, Wade will prob be fav to beat Part but thats mainly coz he was much shorter before the comp started but on the way they have played its gonna be very close. Manley is just the kind of player to under estimate Shepherd too, if he gets his head down he should win but then has either Taylor or mardle so thats gonna be tough.

Painter is a small fav for me against Lewis but I always have a small worry about someone that causes a big upset in their next game as they sometimes leave a lot behind and Lewis can be really good on his day, still think Painter will win this one.

What could be a good bets is Mardle on the handicap against Taylor, he has a terrible record against him but thats mainly coz he has bottled it in the past so backing him getting 2 1/2 sets means he has to win 3 sets for you to collect( its now first to 5 sets) and Taylor has lost the handicap in every match up to now.

All in all its been a great comp up to now.

[Bazzaboy]

If Roy never wins another match I'll be a happy man.  He decides to bring out the performance of his life (on stage) when I'm in up to my neck on Hamilton.  Had all been going swimmingly up until then.

I backed Hamilton, Jenkins, Taylor and Painter before the off, so a Taylor v Painter final would do nicely.  Some potentially cracking matches tomorrow.  I fancy Part to beat anout of sorts Wade and Painter v Lewis could be a classic.  I've been trying to get Mardle beat since the first round and its still not happened so hopefully Taylor can help me out.  Shepherd also has a fighting chance against Manley.

[ifm]

Manley lost to Mcdine in a tv comp the other week, maybe he struggles v 21 year olds

The thing with darts is as the format lengthens the better players "edge" becomes more evident.
Taylor is famous for starting off slowly so he always seems to struggle in shorter formats this changes dramatically in later rounds.

So i'd go for the form players from now on, Wade, Painter, Taylor and Manley (though not on form but he's against a weaker player).
Can't see past Taylor for the win with only really Wade capable of beating him.

[totalise]

manley, painter, taylor and part to all win is a good little bet, im gonna invest my winnings from painter last night into this 4way punt, always nice to have a freeroll at this stage!! Only fly in the oitment in my eyes is lewis vs painter, but by the looks of it they are playing last so I can always trade to cover.  Really really fancy painter to take it all, but lewis is a very solid player.  backed painter before the tourney started, then last night against barney, i got a good feeling about him.... which means he is almost certain to lose in the 1/4finals! fingers crossed though.

[bobby1]

the fixed odds firms made Lewis small fav to beat Painter but thats now changed and Painter is fav on Betfair, Wade opened up 4/7 in a few spots to beat Part which for me is a terrible price , he available to bet at almost 10/11 now on Betfair

[ifm]

Battle of the arrogant pr***s on now, with the younger version flying.
Wait till Manley starts the gamesmanship.

[bobby1]

yes, a great start but am I the only one that feels tghe urge to punch em both?

[bobby1]

Typical Manley, when he had him nailed to the floor he gave it away to lose 5-4, this young lad has kahuna's of steel.