So, all three options are possible

[TightEnd]

we have massive FE with the push and the only hands we're scared of here are 44, 55 and TT (I'm assuming he won't have called PF with a 2 pair hand  and would've reraised with AA). Everything else we're either way ahead of or we're flipping.

given this, what do you think his check raising range of hands is?

[Jaydeaa]

I would be honest and guess he is playing A, 10, Hit top pair with top kicker... and is a very loose aggressive player, is worried about the flush so wants to take the pot there and there

2 options for me there, Im pushing all in, or folding, Never calling as if you miss the flush your just chip donking!

[AlexMartin]

we have massive FE with the push and the only hands we're scared of here are 44, 55 and TT (I'm assuming he won't have called PF with a 2 pair hand  and would've reraised with AA). Everything else we're either way ahead of or we're flipping.

given this, what do you think his check raising range of hands is?

lesser flush draws/ combo draws/ sets. But we have FE baby!!!!

[MANTIS01]

Your oppo is a complete unknown and so speculating about his range is probably a useless exercise. However, putting him on a set until you know better is a very restrictive stance to take imo....because that is the LEAST likely scenario.

If this was a limped pot or a different stage in the tournament the passing option could be given due consideration. But this is a pot YOU raised pre-flop and a pot YOU juiced on the flop....so to get pushed off YOUR POT when drawing to the nuts is an eventuality I wouldn't want to entertain.

I have talked before about the sliding scale in tournaments between chip accumulation and chip preservation. Well here, the tournament has just started, everyone has the same amount of chips, and EVERYONE is looking to accumulate. If you slip into chip preservation mode so early you are going to be left behind in the rush to accumulate.

When you push your oppo will sometimes fold and sometimes call. Sometimes he calls and you will win a big pot when the spade comes and you will be out if it doesn't. So what. The important thing is that you approached a No Limit Hold'em tournament in the right spirit and you are doing what it takes to win. Folding only gives you the guaranteed opportunity to gamble a little later with less chips....and you will still have a passive mentality to contend with.   

[gatso]

we have massive FE with the push and the only hands we're scared of here are 44, 55 and TT (I'm assuming he won't have called PF with a 2 pair hand  and would've reraised with AA). Everything else we're either way ahead of or we're flipping.

given this, what do you think his check raising range of hands is?

TT+,55-44,ATs,A5s-A4s,KTs,QTs,JTs,ATo,A5o-A4o,KTo,QTo,JTo

against this range it's a flip, throw in weaker flush draws and the ever present chance that he's making a move with air and we're ahead of the range. this plus out FE makes it a push

[gatso]

pass everytime, its not worth the risk ( unless i have a solid read, which we dont), ge coulc have flopped the any set, have an open ended straight flush draw,  all of which make this hand less attractive.

muck it and move on.

but we're favourite against the OE SF draw. this is normally massive but only if both the straight and flush draws are live, here the flush draw isn't so villain would have 9 less cards to hit than he'd expect

[LuckyLloyd]

We shouldn't have any FE here given that he is going to be getting over 2 : 1 on the call for the rest of it. Jus saying.

[gatso]

We shouldn't have any FE here given that he is going to be getting over 2 : 1 on the call for the rest of it. Jus saying.

saying our opponent has pot odds is not the same as saying we don't have FE. Our FE increases as the likelihood of our oppo passing increases. in this case I'd suggest that the likelihood of the pass is high with a lot of holdings as we're asking a player who's never played with a deepstack to put in close to 7k of his 10k starting stack

[TightEnd]

---
  25,740  games     0.016 secs     1,608,750  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    54.868%     54.87%    00.00%             14123            0.00   { AsJs }
Hand 1:    45.132%     45.13%    00.00%             11617            0.00   { TT, 55-44, KsQs, KsJs, 63s, 63o }


---


ranges wise, this is what I got on PStove when I deliberated earlier


He had 10 10 by the way for flopped top set : a desire to open out my game and accumulate early or go home ran into a monster

[gatso]

I make that range a bit tight (surely needs AT in at least if not KT, QT, JT and overpairs) and can't see 63 being in there as he's called the PF raise but it makes very little difference. I think my range came out about 55-45 in villains favour but either way I make the push correct

[MANTIS01]

I would add that A-K is also in the range of any American opponent

[LuckyLloyd]

We shouldn't have any FE here given that he is going to be getting over 2 : 1 on the call for the rest of it. Jus saying.

saying our opponent has pot odds is not the same as saying we don't have FE. Our FE increases as the likelihood of our oppo passing increases. in this case I'd suggest that the likelihood of the pass is high with a lot of holdings as we're asking a player who's never played with a deepstack to put in close to 7k of his 10k starting stack

What? The bigger the amount of money in the middle relative to what is left to go in: the less FE we have. When the amount of money in the middle becomes more than twice what is left to go in people fold with a rapidly decreasing frequency. He has made a bet that makes it very difficult for him to give up on the hand. On average (and this is against an unknown remember) the likelihood is that we get called here. Other ways of looking at this problem are irrelevant.

[LuckyLloyd]

I would add that A-K is also in the range of any American opponent

 

[MANTIS01]

I agree with gatso on this. The chap sits down and tells the table he's not familiar with bigger events....and offering up this sort of free info to all his oppos shows he's none to familiar with the fundamentals of poker either. This is why I think pushing is the right play for THIS guy and we do have the increased FE gatso talks about. It is quite possible the maths will escape him and/or he was just getting excited with tp.

And he WILL lay tp down because he doesn't want to go out. And not wanting to go out is often pressure enough to push someone off a hand they should call with, especially early on.

[boldie]

I agree with gatso on this. The chap sits down and tells the table he's not familiar with bigger events....and offering up this sort of free info to all his oppos shows he's none to familiar with the fundamentals of poker either. This is why I think pushing is the right play for THIS guy and we do have the increased FE gatso talks about. It is quite possible the maths will escape him and/or he was just getting excited with tp.

And he WILL lay tp down because he doesn't want to go out. And not wanting to go out is often pressure enough to push someone off a hand they should call with, especially early on.

this is of course assuming he's being honest...