When is it time to start worrying?

[Pyso]

It was a good example, I wasn't being sarcastic!!

Oh, the joys of the internet!!

[AndrewT]

ok, don't know where I got that ridiculous example from. This is better.

a)Chances of losing 4 coin flips in a row = 6.25%

b)Chances of not cashing 27 times in a row = 5.8%

not a lot in it but I'm sure you wouldn't find a) to be that strange if it happened even though it's about as likely as b)

And, what's more, if you play a lot of MTTs, not only should you not be surprised at a losing run of 27, you should actually expect it to happen at some point. If you sat there flipping coins all day you'd be surprised if you didn't have a run of 4 tails in a row.

[matt674]

when it comes to not cashing in tournaments there have been 60 (sixty) seperate occasions where i have not cashed in at least 15 consecutive tournaments.

The only conclusion i take from this is that i play too much poker

[amcgrath1uk]

I must say that i am on a similar run online at the moment, which coincided with my biggest ever win and withdrawal.

am I doing anything differently?? don't believe i am, however I am still able to cash ( small only) and not had a sniff of a final table for nearly a month now.

all it means is my bankroll has taken an absolute beating, and i've now switched to stt's to try and grind my way back up

[Pyso]

Good statistical points well made gatso and AndrewT.

And matt674, I clearly don't play enough poker!! LOL

[matt674]

Good statistical points well made gatso and AndrewT.

And matt674, I clearly don't play enough poker!! LOL

my statistics are all online related though and yours are live poker - obviously you're never going to play as many live tourneys as you do online

[Graham C]

Good thread, cheered me up a bit too

I switch games when I can't cash for a while and play some sng's or cash games.   

[matt674]

Good thread, cheered me up a bit too

I switch games when I can't cash for a while and play some sng's or cash games.   

lol, the switching game thing was a help to me also - when i had the consecutive streak of 63 non cashes my record was just two cashes in one month playing a total of 84 games during Feb 2006. my two cashes in this month were an omaha hi tourney and my only ever final table at in a stud hi/lo tourney.

sometimes when i feel as though my hold'em game is getting a little stale i fire up a horse tourney or something just for a bit of variety.

being an mtt monkey i stick to the tournaments though - switching to cash would probably empty whatever bankroll i had left from the losing tourney run i was on

[Pyso]

Thanks snatiramas (that's difficult to spell first time round!), I somehow missed your reply earlier.

Yes, I am a bit too by-the-book, although I realsied this and started mixing it up, but it didn't have a noticeable effect. (Yet?)

I play to enjoy it, win, make money and have fun!! I think we all do really!

I shall keep plugging away, you never know I might be about to turn a corner.

matt's idea of trying some non-holdem also has some merit I'm sure.

[gatso]

It was a good example, I wasn't being sarcastic!!

Oh, the joys of the internet!!

I didn't think you were, I wrote the second example while you were replying to the first one so hadn't read your reply.

[Snatiramas]

Thanks snatiramas (that's difficult to spell first time round!), I somehow missed your reply earlier.

Yes, I am a bit too by-the-book, although I realsied this and started mixing it up, but it didn't have a noticeable effect. (Yet?)

I play to enjoy it, win, make money and have fun!! I think we all do really!

I shall keep plugging away, you never know I might be about to turn a corner.

matt's idea of trying some non-holdem also has some merit I'm sure.

Indeedy...Omaha tends to be my fall back. What I would say is that everybody at some point goes through something like this.......welcome to the worlds most non exclusive club

[Grier78]

I must say that i am on a similar run online at the moment, which coincided with my biggest ever win and withdrawal.

am I doing anything differently?? don't believe i am, however I am still able to cash ( small only) and not had a sniff of a final table for nearly a month now.

all it means is my bankroll has taken an absolute beating, and i've now switched to stt's to try and grind my way back up

I have had the same problem, after my biggest ever win I now cant even win a sit&go. Its a mixture of over confident play and bad luck my statisticaly expected run of losing situations.

[portfolio]

Wish we could get a dealer dealt tourny for £20 + £2 in the South... Minimum is £100 + £10 in Southend really...

And deepest stack is for the same buy in for 7,500 chips...

£20 + £2 is a rebuy night... And £30 + £3 is a freezeout with 3000 chips...

I need to head up north

ALL stoke stanley tourneys are dealer dealt 7 nights a week,  thanks to the cardroom mgr  andy    aka blazing saddler.

[portfolio]

Just a general post, a little abstract perhaps, but I would like to ask fellow blondies how many successive MTTs without cashing, would start to be a concern to you?

I have now played 27 consecutive live tournaments without a cash, and although I have bubbled once and finished just one off the bubble three times (aaaaghhh!), I am beginning to think there might be something wrong with my approach to tournament play.

I have been playing  £20 tourneys mostly (I won't move up whilst I am not cashing at this level, which seems reasonable), usually freezeouts, and the same thing seems to keep repeating -

a)  I rarely go out very early

b)  I usually go out with about 20 - 25 players left

c)  I have been receiving some beats for sure (more than my share) but also misplaying a few key hands just as my stack is starting to dwindle

d)  I have been making some good reads / folds (the ones I have seen at showdown) keeping me in the tournament, but when I have to push later on, I usually run into a bigger hand  (aaaarrrghhh!)

e)   I think it might be variance because I'm not even hitting flops, had I stayed in the hand pre-flop

Am I running too tight? I know I have to accumulate chips throughout the tourney but I am finding this difficult for two reasons - I am particularly card dead in tournaments (I get better cards in cash games) and when I use position against 2 or 3 players, regardless of cards and raise it up, I just get called or re-raised anyway which tends to screw things up a bit.

Is this a particular problem at these price tournaments perhaps?

I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm just crap at MTTs. Or could it just be a bad run? I do much better on the cash tables.

I shall re-read Harrington on Hold'em to see if I'm missing anything but I would like some feedback as to whether this is a run (27 consecutive non cashes) that is normal, or indicative of something being wrong.

I am applying M and 10xBB or less is time to push etc, and I am aware of seeing value flops, but I have to wonder when my Queens get called by 10,7 suited and I am parking my chair under the table....!

Also, my online MTT record is much better, so this may be a live thing.

This is not a moan, I believe in good karma and that if I keep at it, things will improve, but I recognise that I might need to change my approach.

Anyway, I await some comments, hopefully

Pyso

P.S.  Played the Stoke Circus £20 + £2 deepstack tourney last night (..of course I didn't cash) - it's dealer dealt with 8000 chips and seems a good crowd. Well worth the 45 minute trip, even if trying to find the casino was particularly difficult without a map, phone, sat nav, or indeed any idea where it was!

a million variables here to contend with , but  the young freezout crowd today  only play  harringtonesque imo      more is rqd     especially   at 21-26th placed levels   short handed,  when blinds escalating and opening hand requirements are lower imo.

i was at table 3 all nite in this comp and chopped at at 445am chipcount  did we encounter each other ?

gl

[TheChipPrince]

when it comes to not cashing in tournaments there have been 60 (sixty) seperate occasions where i have not cashed in at least 15 consecutive tournaments.

The only conclusion i take from this is that i play too much poker

Claw your way back Matt, when you get to 75 be worried...