Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary

[RED-DOG]

BTW Glen, 'looking afterness' is a great phrase. Right up there with 'cashy washy'

[EvilPie]

I've never liked throwing things away because I hate waste but it just means I end up hoarding stuff that I'll never use. I like the thought of giving something a new home to someone who'll actually use it but unfortunately I usually end up just sticking it in the loft and it just stays there indefinitely.

I've actually got all of my old biker gear if you think any of it may be of use. I love what you say you've done with the old jacket and it's great to think it'll get a second chance to serve someone. There's waterproofs, helmets, gloves, leathers and boots. It's all really good quality gear so if you're still short of anything let me know and maybe some of it might get a new lease of life as well.

[RED-DOG]

I've never liked throwing things away because I hate waste but it just means I end up hoarding stuff that I'll never use. I like the thought of giving something a new home to someone who'll actually use it but unfortunately I usually end up just sticking it in the loft and it just stays there indefinitely.

I've actually got all of my old biker gear if you think any of it may be of use. I love what you say you've done with the old jacket and it's great to think it'll get a second chance to serve someone. There's waterproofs, helmets, gloves, leathers and boots. It's all really good quality gear so if you're still short of anything let me know and maybe some of it might get a new lease of life as well.

That's very kind of you Matt. Sadly your leathers will be too big for me but my hands and feet are on the large side, not to mention my head.

I would love to pop round and have a look when it's convenient.

[Skippy]

Haha, I really do. I love the frugality (if that's a word), the skill, the patience, the looking afterness of it all. The box sounds like a good example of 5S disciplines, in it's own small way, that you'll find in any good workshop or manufacturing plant.

I've never been much of a looker after and it's hard to count the skips I've filled over the years with stuff that should have lasted longer or perfectly good junk because I couldn't be bothered to maintain, repair, find a new home for it or a buyer.

So, I think we're just drawn to the things we're not and I love watching things getting done that I've been poor at - in this case it helps offset the negative feelings I have about my own consumerism and inclination to see most things as disposable.

I do enjoy doing this sort of stuff but you're right, frugality is the driving force. Well that and the fact that I abhor waste.

I wish I could let myself be a bit more bala sometimes but I just can't.

For example, My brother John and I are planning to do a little European motorcycle tour, we've been planning it for ages. We both needed protective clothing. He went into a motorcycle accessories shop and bought a Jacket ~ £200, Kevlar jeans £100+ Gloves ~£60 etc..

I trawled the charity shops and car boot sales. I got gloves for £3, Trousers for £5, and a leather jacket for £7.

I can't help it. The way I see it, finding those items is equivalent to going out and earning £300. Plus, the leather jacket I bought was all neglected and sad, but I treated it with some saddle soap and TLC and now it has a new lease of life.

John says I'm too busy farting around saving pennies to earn pounds. The worst part is, I know he's right.



This is us on a practice run to Skeggy the other week.

Not long now, God willing....

Click to see full-size image.

 

This is a bit of a step up. What happened to the Cub 90?

[RED-DOG]

Haha, I really do. I love the frugality (if that's a word), the skill, the patience, the looking afterness of it all. The box sounds like a good example of 5S disciplines, in it's own small way, that you'll find in any good workshop or manufacturing plant.

I've never been much of a looker after and it's hard to count the skips I've filled over the years with stuff that should have lasted longer or perfectly good junk because I couldn't be bothered to maintain, repair, find a new home for it or a buyer.

So, I think we're just drawn to the things we're not and I love watching things getting done that I've been poor at - in this case it helps offset the negative feelings I have about my own consumerism and inclination to see most things as disposable.

I do enjoy doing this sort of stuff but you're right, frugality is the driving force. Well that and the fact that I abhor waste.

I wish I could let myself be a bit more bala sometimes but I just can't.

For example, My brother John and I are planning to do a little European motorcycle tour, we've been planning it for ages. We both needed protective clothing. He went into a motorcycle accessories shop and bought a Jacket ~ £200, Kevlar jeans £100+ Gloves ~£60 etc..

I trawled the charity shops and car boot sales. I got gloves for £3, Trousers for £5, and a leather jacket for £7.

I can't help it. The way I see it, finding those items is equivalent to going out and earning £300. Plus, the leather jacket I bought was all neglected and sad, but I treated it with some saddle soap and TLC and now it has a new lease of life.

John says I'm too busy farting around saving pennies to earn pounds. The worst part is, I know he's right.



This is us on a practice run to Skeggy the other week.

Not long now, God willing....

Click to see full-size image.

 

This is a bit of a step up. What happened to the Cub 90?

It's a bit of a story, I'll tell you about it when I get an hour spare.

[doubleup]

I've never liked throwing things away because I hate waste but it just means I end up hoarding stuff that I'll never use. I like the thought of giving something a new home to someone who'll actually use it but unfortunately I usually end up just sticking it in the loft and it just stays there indefinitely.

I've actually got all of my old biker gear if you think any of it may be of use. I love what you say you've done with the old jacket and it's great to think it'll get a second chance to serve someone. There's waterproofs, helmets, gloves, leathers and boots. It's all really good quality gear so if you're still short of anything let me know and maybe some of it might get a new lease of life as well.

You should start a thread "tat for tikay" and put a list up.

[RED-DOG]

I've never liked throwing things away because I hate waste but it just means I end up hoarding stuff that I'll never use. I like the thought of giving something a new home to someone who'll actually use it but unfortunately I usually end up just sticking it in the loft and it just stays there indefinitely.

I've actually got all of my old biker gear if you think any of it may be of use. I love what you say you've done with the old jacket and it's great to think it'll get a second chance to serve someone. There's waterproofs, helmets, gloves, leathers and boots. It's all really good quality gear so if you're still short of anything let me know and maybe some of it might get a new lease of life as well.

You should start a thread "tat for tikay" and put a list up.

I have an idea for another thread too. Is he a leg or a breast man?

[tikay]

I've never liked throwing things away because I hate waste but it just means I end up hoarding stuff that I'll never use. I like the thought of giving something a new home to someone who'll actually use it but unfortunately I usually end up just sticking it in the loft and it just stays there indefinitely.

I've actually got all of my old biker gear if you think any of it may be of use. I love what you say you've done with the old jacket and it's great to think it'll get a second chance to serve someone. There's waterproofs, helmets, gloves, leathers and boots. It's all really good quality gear so if you're still short of anything let me know and maybe some of it might get a new lease of life as well.

You should start a thread "tat for tikay" and put a list up.

I have an idea for another thread too. Is he a leg or a breast man?

If it's chicken, breasts, if it's lamb, leg every time.

[Rod Paradise]

off the top of my head 1-(n-1/n)^n seems right, but this margin is too small to prove it  

Oh no!

I didn't read the question properly - what I've put is obviously the chance of getting any in the right place for n screws and holes.

I'd go with Tal's logic as well; there are 32 chances to get 1/32 so the most likely outcome is 1 (assuming you don't check them one at a time as you go along)

This'll teach me not to try any maths while I'm trying to pretend to work

The small sample I ran showed that not to be the case though.

it's 32 of 1 in 32 if you throw the screw back into the bowl of screws after checking it. if you don't you've either got one right or proved 2 wrong after the first try throwing the chances of the next one off the 1/32 chance significantly, and so on down the line.

[Longines]

My eldest has just finished his first year of a Maths degree - going to ask him this one and see if I've got my nine grands worth.....

[Jon MW]

off the top of my head 1-(n-1/n)^n seems right, but this margin is too small to prove it  

Oh no!

I didn't read the question properly - what I've put is obviously the chance of getting any in the right place for n screws and holes.

I'd go with Tal's logic as well; there are 32 chances to get 1/32 so the most likely outcome is 1 (assuming you don't check them one at a time as you go along)

This'll teach me not to try any maths while I'm trying to pretend to work

The small sample I ran showed that not to be the case though.

it's 32 of 1 in 32 if you throw the screw back into the bowl of screws after checking it. if you don't you've either got one right or proved 2 wrong after the first try throwing the chances of the next one off the 1/32 chance significantly, and so on down the line.

If you don't know whether you've got the first one right the chances of getting the second one right is still 1 in 32 (etc for the rest). Like if you pick a card from a deck the chances of an ace are 1 in 13, but if you split the deck and pick a card from either side the chances are still 1 in 13. With the screws it's more like you effectively decide which screw goes with which hole beforehand then you fit them all in. Even if you do them one by one its 'like' you are doing that.

Having said that I still think we're missing something just can't figure out what it is.
EDIT: The problem I have with it is that if each (independent) probability is 1/32 then the most likely answer is obviously that it won't be in the right hole; and so if you have 32 of them then wouldn't the total outcome be zero because they're all so unlikely to be in the right one (?)

[Jon MW]

My eldest has just finished his first year of a Maths degree - going to ask him this one and see if I've got my nine grands worth.....

To be honest I think it's more of an A Level problem - it's just that everyone on here who once had that level of competence has long since forgotten it

My fiancee got her A level in maths much more recently - doesn't help though, her answer is, "What's wrong with you? Why does anyone care?"

[RED-DOG]

My eldest has just finished his first year of a Maths degree - going to ask him this one and see if I've got my nine grands worth.....

To be honest I think it's more of an A Level problem - it's just that everyone on here who once had that level of competence has long since forgotten it

My fiancee got her A level in maths much more recently - doesn't help though, her answer is, "What's wrong with you? Why does anyone care?"

I lolled.

[Rod Paradise]

off the top of my head 1-(n-1/n)^n seems right, but this margin is too small to prove it  

Oh no!

I didn't read the question properly - what I've put is obviously the chance of getting any in the right place for n screws and holes.

I'd go with Tal's logic as well; there are 32 chances to get 1/32 so the most likely outcome is 1 (assuming you don't check them one at a time as you go along)

This'll teach me not to try any maths while I'm trying to pretend to work

The small sample I ran showed that not to be the case though.

it's 32 of 1 in 32 if you throw the screw back into the bowl of screws after checking it. if you don't you've either got one right or proved 2 wrong after the first try throwing the chances of the next one off the 1/32 chance significantly, and so on down the line.

If you don't know whether you've got the first one right the chances of getting the second one right is still 1 in 32 (etc for the rest). Like if you pick a card from a deck the chances of an ace are 1 in 13, but if you split the deck and pick a card from either side the chances are still 1 in 13. With the screws it's more like you effectively decide which screw goes with which hole beforehand then you fit them all in. Even if you do them one by one its 'like' you are doing that.

Having said that I still think we're missing something just can't figure out what it is.
EDIT: The problem I have with it is that if each (independent) probability is 1/32 then the most likely answer is obviously that it won't be in the right hole; and so if you have 32 of them then wouldn't the total outcome be zero because they're all so unlikely to be in the right one (?)

I'm sure we're missing the extraction of the first drawn screw from the pool - which affects the probability of every subsequent draw. You can't ignore the previous result as it significantly affects the chances of correct draws.

We're drawing every card in the deck - the chance of getting any one card is 1 - we will get it, but once we've drawn it if it's wrong it's still used & cannot be right later on and also makes one of the other cards wrong, that has to have a negative effect, hence the most likely result of 0 correct.

[david3103]

If we allocate each screw to a card and shuffle a 32 card deck we have 32! possible outcomes 32*31*30.... *2*1 which is 2.6313084e+35
That's 263108400000000000000000000000000000 different sequences of screws
What's the chance of any of them being in the 'right' place?