How good a re-steal spot is this?

I sent this hand to Jennifear too who has an awesome record in these low stakes 45 man jobbies and she sent me a very nice reply which i figured I'd share as it was very helpful in showing why it should be a fold, her thoughts are in bold... p.s i'm not 100% sure if she thinks there are 15 left in this or 8 when she is talking about our equity, i haven't had time to check or ask

comments below, your thought process is pretty good...but you missed one key component of this hand.

IMO

Pros:
-We have a nice stack size to do this with and the raiser has plenty if they fold but not so much that losing pot doesn’t hurt them

careful here, our stack size is actually too small... you are ideally looking for spots where we have 5-7x the size of the raise. Our raise being only 2500 more to call for a pot of 7000 is hurting us.

-Once we let the blinds go through us we have barely any fold equity left - although this is actually only of much use against two of the stacks at our table as a raise from the others pretty much comitts them

Even when the blinds climb to 300 you'll still have 3000 left which isn't horrible.

- although not in lolshoveaments mode yet we will be once blinds pass through us + blinds go up every 6 mins

- we are playing for top three, not to limp in to the money

careful.... this is not at all true in this particular spot....

The biggest factor in this decision is actually ICM! In a balanced prize pool, this wouldn't be such a factor. Here, in a 45 man, it's HUGE!!! When I do the math below, this will quickly become apparent.

(A huge pro that you missed was that the shortest stacks already folded, which makes the middle-short stack the BB, a proper steal target)

Somewhere in the middle (lol)

- against his range I don’t think Q-J plays too bad (8-9ss would be better) (40-60ish), although running it thru a fold% calculator I have, we need him to fold 40% of the time to make this break even (assuming we’re a 36-63 dog)
As a $10 45 man sng player with no reads i'd range him just about thus:77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+
So if we need him to fold 40% of the time to break even if he folds any of A-To, K-Jo, K-Qo, A-9s or A-Ts then my my calcs it is a profitable play

Your hand is awesome, and one of the better reasons to make this play. It's one of the best resteal hands out there, and fares very well agaisnt most ranges. It's not quite as good as the ultimate resteal hand (small PP), but it's a VERY good resteal hand.

Cons:

- No reads

so we haven't seen him raise and fold on the same betting round

- It’s a mid position raise not a late pos raise

agree

- a player behind us could wake up with a hand (a couple are shortstacked*)

true

- we have nothing invested in the pot

not so important... if its +EV, it's +EV

- there are no antes in this tournament

That's normally a problem, but in this case, it helps to reduce the pot odds that the original raiser would have. With antes, his pot odds are better than 2-1 to make this call!

*Not necessarily a bad thing as two of the stacks behind us are desperate so will shove with a wildish range but we would rather shove and everyone fold than get looked up

Final determination:

If this is a $24+2 45 man trny on FTP, the prizes are 410, 270, 173, 108, 65, 54. Sixth place money is unusually high for a MTT/SNG compared to first place cash.

Should we get called, and lose, our equity is 0.

Should we fold, our equity is something like: $116

Should we shove, and the raiser folds, our equity is something like: $142

Should we shove, and get called, and win the hand, our equity is something like: $193

So going with your calculations of his calling range being 60% of his raising range, and 36% winrate when he wins:

40% of the time, we shove, we do not get called, and win $26 equity.
22% of the time, we shove, get called, and win. We win $77 equity.
38% of the time, we shove, get called, and lose. We lose $116 equity.

If we shove this 100 times, we end up with
40x26=1040. profit from the times he folds
22x77=1694. profit from the times he calls and we win anyway
38x(-116)=4408. loss from the times he calls and we lose
-----------------------
-1674 (/100) = $16.74 loss per hand!

If he folds 60%:
60x26=1560. profit from the times he folds
14x77=1078. profit from the times he calls and we win anyway
26x(-116)=-3016 loss from the times he calls and we lose
-----------------------
-378 (/100) = $3.78 loss per hand!

So you would actually need him (and the others behind us) to raise with intent to fold something like 64% of the time just to break even.

I don't think you have those numbers here, because
- his pot odds are pretty good
- the chance he has a hand raising from MP are not too shabby

So, in conclusion, it's a bad spot, but would be a very good one if:

- we had a few more chips
- we had seen the raiser raise/fold at least once
- this was not the bubble of a 45 man SNG on FTP (which is uber-similar to a 9 man bubble)

The last of the three points being most important.