Advice Required

[boldie]

Ok here's the answer

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

Excellent post.

[DaveShoelace]

Ok here's the answer

First off is calling +Ev?

Well, I would suggest your equity against your opponent's range here is likely to be between 40 and 50% depending on his levels of nittiness. Very optimistic to suggest you are ever better here.

I'm going to average this out to 45% in the face of an unknown but you could tweak this if you have more info on your opponent.

So with 35k in the pot he shoves for 100k and you figure your equity to be 45%. To be +EV you need 43% ( 42.55% exactly) equity...so on the face of it this is a very marginal +EV play. Double up gave a big range of hands earlier that our hand would be 43% against, which would make the call even more marginal.

OK...so now I'm going to  turn to the bearded mathematician whose reputation has hopefully not been completely undermined by the assortment of sex toys to be found in his glove compartment, Mr Sklansky.

He once said famously, although I paraphrase, that you should only turn down +EV in a tournament if you can find a higher EV spot soon after. Your stack size is 25 BBs and with this spot you are playing out an almost neutral/marginally +EV spot. If you are an average player you should instantly take the gamble as you won't find better spots.

If you are half decent though, I would suggest you can find a variety of other spots to get your chips in as a much bigger favourite / find areas to pick up chips uncontested. I would take those personally. The only reason I could possibly think for a good player to take this gamble is that he is horrible at playing a 25BB stack but awesome at playing a 50BB stack.

OR you disagree with your equity in the hand being 45%. If you think it is higher and can put a persuasive case for this fair play. Otherwise, why take marginal gambles for your 25 BB stack? Super easy to find a hand where you have 60% equity against the majority of players imo.

I agree with Barry. Fold if you are decent. You need a very small edge over the field to find better positions.

Was about to sling in a 'nerrrrrrrd' comment, but you agreed with me, so go me.

Good post that was, one thing none of us really factored is whether or not better spots are on the way.

I think most of us agree that if this was checked to us, we shove in a heartbeat.

[boldie]

oh yes..I'd shove here in a split second..it's the calling I don't like.

[Royal Flush]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

[MANTIS01]

doubleup did provide a range that he considered suitable and went on to discount any insane bluff from that range. However, any all-in is not an insane bluff. It is a great bluff. Yes, of course we would all like to push first. This is because the bet is very unlikely to be called and we win the pot.

So it absolutely stands to reason that if the pusher knows his bet will almost never be called his range of hands is going to be on the weaker side of this range rather than the stronger side. In addition, because the pusher feels that we are on the nick all the while and made a point of telling us this, his weak range must also include bluffs. He would love to push first as well....and he has.

I promise his range is not going to include flushes, straights, sets or two pairs. He will always CRAI with these hands to teach us a lesson for pummeling him. Please be aware he doesn't know we have the ace of clubs. So if we slim his range down to the realistic pushing hands that actually relate to his 100k all-in shove we will be much closer to his actual range.

Now if you factor into the equation that this pot probably locks-up the top-heavy tourney for you we can now make a more insightful decision. I would say that people who see his 100k shove as a strong made hand should welcome this opportunity to gamble because the edge you feel you have is not related to what is actually happening.

[boldie]

doubleup did provide a range that he considered suitable and went on to discount any insane bluff from that range. However, any all-in is not an insane bluff. It is a great bluff. Yes, of course we would all like to push first. This is because the bet is very unlikely to be called and we win the pot.

So it absolutely stands to reason that if the pusher knows his bet will almost never be called his range of hands is going to be on the weaker side of this range rather than the stronger side. In addition, because the pusher feels that we are on the nick all the while and made a point of telling us this, his weak range must also include bluffs. He would love to push first as well....and he has.

I promise his range is not going to include flushes, straights, sets or two pairs. He will always CRAI with these hands to teach us a lesson for pummeling him. Please be aware he doesn't know we have the ace of clubs. So if we slim his range down to the realistic pushing hands that actually relate to his 100k all-in shove we will be much closer to his actual range.

Now if you factor into the equation that this pot probably locks-up the top-heavy tourney for you we can now make a more insightful decision. I would say that people who see his 100k shove as a strong made hand should welcome this opportunity to gamble because the edge you feel you have is not related to what is actually happening.

nobody said he has a strong made hand. but it is likely that we are behind here, no?

[MANTIS01]

Boldie, I think it's fair to say we are behind, but I think discounting 10's, A's, some clubs etc as outs is completely unrelated to his 100k shove. He is weak right now. So I don't want an excuse to fold, I want an excuse to call. I think he would have one pair, prob a K. So this means all clubs, 10's, and A's are outs and as such the decision is not as marginal as is being illustrated. And I don't think folding means you have an edge, if you're deciding to fold based on an unrealistic range for the 100k pusher. I do think it's best to avoid calling all-in, but not in this tourney, for that pot, with that many outs.

[doubleup]

......or two pairs. He will always CRAI with these hands to teach us a lesson for pummeling him.

He pushes 2pr and an unlikely set every time here.  He also pushes any other made but vulnerable hand.  I really can't see a bluff here without - you seem to be forgetting that he called a raise with some sort of a hand so you have got to include a huge number of hands like 87s in that range AND conclude he would push with these hands as a complete bluff on a flop which has a reasonable chance to have hit the button raiser in some way.  As you pointed out, this isn't the bubble of a major championship, he can't beleive that a bluff like that would be successful very much.

[doubleup]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

Ahhhh so the magical extra ev appears!

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: doubleup

He pushes 2pr and an unlikely set every time here.

Nah buddy, he doesn't. There's 35k in the pot and both players have 100k+ so checking gets a c-bet of circa 20k into the mix and then he's going to take great satisfaction in coming straight back over the top. If he called with K-Q pre-flop he will see the K-Q flop and will just check instinctively looking for that very play. He's accused you of stealing his blinds, so he wants you to try and steal now....so he can slam the door in your face. The all club flop makes us think this would be a risky play....but that's because we know we have the A. If he flopped a flush would he push? That looks pretty wasteful if we have 67 of diamonds. No, he would CRAI.

Posted by: doubleup

He also pushes any other made but vulnerable hand

Yep, I agree with this much more and is the point I made earlier. One vulnerable pair looks more realistic and as such we can include A's and 10's in our calculations.

I would add that considering many fold even this massive draw our oppo has every right to expect a bluff to be successful.

[AlexMartin]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

whole basis of this argument.

[doubleup]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

whole basis of this argument.

I really am puzzled.  This was a call for value earlier in the thread and now its a call because you're a superduper player.  Why can't you use your superduper skills by folding and using your still above average stack?  Or are you only superduper with 3 times average?

[MANTIS01]

I think when people are assessing Villain's range they have one eye on their own hand. If we raised pre-flop with K-J and were faced with the same decision there would be a strong case made for calling. People would say he wouldn't push with strength, he's obviously drawing, so it's a reasonable call. If we discount a certain part of his range with the K-J call we can't bring it into play now...because nothing's changed. You can't chop and change an oppos range because you don't fancy your hand so much and now give him credit for K-Q.

Also, his all-in bet is designed to put maximum pressure on his oppo so that he/she makes a mistake. If you suddenly start giving him credit for unrealistic ranges then you are making the very mistake the bet was designed for. The size and pressure of the bet should not lead you to consider he may have flopped the nuts.

[doubleup]

The size and pressure of the bet should not lead you to consider he may have flopped the nuts.

Just about no one is saying that villain has a strong hand.  He doesn't need a strong hand - he just needs a goodish hand probably with or - ok he could have Tc8x but thats about it.  To justify the call you have to put him on a pure bluff a fair bit of the time. imo that is quite unlikely, but I haven't played a $25 tourney for a while - so if this is a common play at that level then well ok. 

[Royal Flush]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

whole basis of this argument.

I really am puzzled.  This was a call for value earlier in the thread and now its a call because you're a superduper player.  Why can't you use your superduper skills by folding and using your still above average stack?  Or are you only superduper with 3 times average?

I think it is a +EV call regardless of the extra benefit of having a big stack.

I would expect him to turn over Kx here quite a lot (x being a club)

My superduper skills in tournaments are limited by variance, if i have average chips 1 mistake can easily knock me out, say a re-jam with a weak hand that gets lookedup. If i have 3 times i can re-jam shit loads more and i can afford to get called a couple of times.