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Poker Hand Analysis
Advice Required
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Topic: Advice Required (Read 7727 times)
celtic
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Advice Required
«
on:
April 13, 2008, 01:13:01 AM »
$25 donkament. Blinds 2500 - 5000. Me 112k. 13 left. i raise on the button with
.
Small blind (130k) calls. BB folds.
Flop
.
SB Pushes for 115k.
Seems quite competent, we had words the previous evening online and felt he was attacking my blinds and raises more than once. ANyway, call or fold?
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #1 on:
April 13, 2008, 01:33:40 AM »
what did u raise it to?
Is SB stack before or after the raise?
I'd personally prefer to be shoving than calling ...... wait till I toss a coin best of 5 wins.
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celtic
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #2 on:
April 13, 2008, 01:47:07 AM »
some good questions there!!!!
i raised to 15k so there is 35k in the pot.
SB 1st to act and shoves ( he has me covered)
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AlexMartin
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #3 on:
April 13, 2008, 02:39:28 AM »
snap call
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doubleup
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #4 on:
April 13, 2008, 09:47:14 AM »
Its pretty marginal - you are about a 40% against him if his range is any broadway. What is the average chip stack? What is the payout in the comp?
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boldie
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #5 on:
April 13, 2008, 10:43:22 AM »
fold for me.
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celtic
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #6 on:
April 13, 2008, 10:48:41 AM »
Quote from: doubleup on April 13, 2008, 09:47:14 AM
Its pretty marginal - you are about a 40% against him if his range is any broadway. What is the average chip stack? What is the payout in the comp?
Average was around 70k. 1st prize was $4800
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DaveShoelace
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #7 on:
April 13, 2008, 11:09:40 AM »
The shove to me says he most likely has one pair (possibly one pair with a straight draw Q-T, J-T etc etc). Though I guess I could see why a set shoves here, I'd expect KK-JJ to be repoping it pre as would a better ace. I think AT reraises you pre if you are button raising, and I think the same hand check raises you or otherwise tries to get more action than just shoving. So Im going KT, QT, JT is most likely.
Your a dog to all (60/40) of these and an even bigger dog to a better hand, plus if he is a competant player as you say then he would never shove shuch an action flop with a bluff/small pair. Its an instant fold to me. However, I would have loved to have shoved on this guy before he did on me, because all of a sudden he has to throw some massive looking hands away.
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AlexMartin
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #8 on:
April 13, 2008, 03:22:59 PM »
seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.
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Royal Flush
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #9 on:
April 13, 2008, 03:26:28 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on April 13, 2008, 03:22:59 PM
seriously WTF are u lot on? We have 12 clean outs with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.
Yeah i called about 4 days ago, but then i don't have this super duper edge in MTT's that the blonde PHA posters do!
I don't know a MTT pro that would pass here.
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Horneris
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #10 on:
April 13, 2008, 04:39:05 PM »
I call. You gotta Gamble in sick good spots like this in this game.
And calling here has to be hugely +ev long term given payouts in almost every mtt.
«
Last Edit: April 13, 2008, 04:41:35 PM by Horneris
»
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booder
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #11 on:
April 13, 2008, 04:44:56 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on April 13, 2008, 03:22:59 PM
seriously WTF are u lot on?
We have 12 clean outs
with a possible additional 3 that might be live. So lets give us 13 for fun. Its a donkement with a top heavy payout structure and obv we play to win and occasionally that means calling with a big draw in a marginal spot. 100k to win 135k giving us near perfect odds against most reasonable ranges (not including any pure bluffs/ bare 10c etc). Seriously, stove this and tell me im wrong.
12?
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Quote from: action man
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PocketLady
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #12 on:
April 13, 2008, 04:47:27 PM »
I call, but I guess it depends on your attitude. Do you want to win the tournament or do you want to hang on and climb up the money a few spots.
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TightEnd
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #13 on:
April 13, 2008, 04:49:32 PM »
you can't pass, you know you're a dog and need to hit but its so huge, you win the comp likely if you pull it off
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doubleup
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Re: Advice Required
«
Reply #14 on:
April 13, 2008, 05:25:16 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on April 13, 2008, 03:26:28 PM
I don't know a MTT pro that would pass here.
Maybe thats why they are always broke.
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