Advice Required

[AlexMartin]

JC the thing you are missing i think is that if you are a good player with 50BB here you are simply going to smash this tournament apart. Winning this pot will get you a lot more than a double up!

whole basis of this argument.

I really am puzzled.  This was a call for value earlier in the thread and now its a call because you're a superduper player.  Why can't you use your superduper skills by folding and using your still above average stack?  Or are you only superduper with 3 times average?

has always been a call because of the fact ur playing a top-heavy payout structure and correctly recognise a marginal spot where you have a good shot at attaining a huge stack at the critical juncture in the tournament. Stack size is so important at this stage that yes, you do turn from a small shot at making the top 3 to a huge favourite. Look at average stack size, players left and the added insurance and flexibility a big stack gives you. MUCH rather take this shot now than call in standard marginal spots later, like 1010 to a 3bet allin pre.

relative stack size now is worth more. added value in an already +EV spot.

[doubleup]

relative stack size now is worth more

pish

play about with this if you don't believe me

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

[LuckyLloyd]

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

[AlexMartin]

relative stack size now is worth more

pish

play about with this if you don't believe me

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php

wtf? im not talking about ICM modelling, im talking about a skilled MTT players ability to use his stack at this point of the tournament, which is widely recognised as the easiest place to get chips with which to dominate the field.

[JungleCat03]

This is so not an insta call lol

There are obvious benefits to having a 50 BB stack but just saying "oh gamble for a big stack" is nonsensical. Otherwise just open shove every hand of the comp till you are 3x average or busto. EV is still the primary factor to consider.

To call here and be +EV you need 43%. I personally would want, nah, i KNOW I can get my chips in at 55 - 60% average equity if I am gonna play out a 50 BB pot. Yes sometimes this will still mean I play out a flip AK v TT or something where I am behind but I will rarely be allin dominated and I feel I can find many spots to get my chips in dominaitng or steal, re-steal / attack weak spots where I can pick up chips uncontested which will pad the numbers considerably.

This is not something that 25 or 50BBs will make a considerable difference to.

Convince me I should take a very thin marginal gamble for my stack. And it is thin. If you think not, throw me a likely weighted range where you have 50% equity or so in this hand. That's what you need imo. Because even getting your remaining chips in on an absolute 50/50 is superior value-wise to calling in this spot despite the overlay.

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

NO!

im talking about a skilled MTT players ability to use his stack at this point of the tournament, which is widely recognised as the easiest place to get chips with which to dominate the field.

all the skilled MTT players I know are excellent with 25BB stacks at the end of comps too. Obviously having a 50BB is pretty much twice as good as a 25BB stack lol but you have a stack plenty capable of re-stealing and squeezing which is the best way to pick up chips at this point of the comp. Re-steal once successfully, just once, let's say you pick up 5 BBs for that...and keep up yourself from being blinded away and you can now play out a pot where you can be 41% to win, are less likely to be allin, which is of superior value to playing out this pot here.

[JungleCat03]

Incidentally i agree that if you can throw in the minutest bit of FE into how the hand plays out...then I'm obviously super happy to get our chips in here.

[doubleup]

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

So are you a value caller or a magic extra chips caller?

[AlexMartin]

This is so not an insta call lol

There are obvious benefits to having a 50 BB stack but just saying "oh gamble for a big stack" is nonsensical. Otherwise just open shove every hand of the comp till you are 3x average or busto. EV is still the primary factor to consider.

To call here and be +EV you need 43%. I personally would want, nah, i KNOW I can get my chips in at 55 - 60% average equity if I am gonna play out a 50 BB pot. Yes sometimes this will still mean I play out a flip AK v TT or something where I am behind but I will rarely be allin dominated and I feel I can find many spots to get my chips in dominaitng or steal, re-steal / attack weak spots where I can pick up chips uncontested which will pad the numbers considerably.

This is not something that 25 or 50BBs will make a considerable difference to.

Convince me I should take a very thin marginal gamble for my stack. And it is thin. If you think not, throw me a likely weighted range where you have 50% equity or so in this hand. That's what you need imo. Because even getting your remaining chips in on an absolute 50/50 is superior value-wise to calling in this spot despite the overlay.

this is plain wrong m8. why is a 50/50 gonna be better than here? Equity is identical.

wow. callcallcallcallcallcallcallcallcall.

NO!

im talking about a skilled MTT players ability to use his stack at this point of the tournament, which is widely recognised as the easiest place to get chips with which to dominate the field.

all the skilled MTT players I know are excellent with 25BB stacks at the end of comps too. Obviously having a 50BB is pretty much twice as good as a 25BB stack lol but you have a stack plenty capable of re-stealing and squeezing which is the best way to pick up chips at this point of the comp. Re-steal once successfully, just once, let's say you pick up 5 BBs for that...and keep up yourself from being blinded away and you can now play out a pot where you can be 41% to win, are less likely to be allin, which is of superior value to playing out this pot here.

its not, its a LOT more valuable at this stage of the comp to have a huge stack. Its not a 2+2=4 matter.DUCY.

 

[boldie]

So now we are calling off our entire stack (which is a fairly decent size) knowing we are likely to be behind and probably not quite getting the pot-odds to make the call..because we are soo great and will dominate the tourney fro here on in assuming we win this pot?

I am a shit MTT player and more than willing to admit it but I never thought I was as bad as to not comprehend the above. So now it's good to get our entire chip stack in the middle because "we are good players and this is "the easiest stage of the tournament to get more chips" (I am assuming this isn't the easiest stage to get more chips because people donk off their entire stacks making erm...winning calls?)

again..it might be a call but I don't see the insta part.

[AlexMartin]

So now we are calling off our entire stack (which is a fairly decent size) knowing we are likely to be behind and probably not quite getting the pot-odds to make the call..because we are soo great and will dominate the tourney fro here on in assuming we win this pot?

I am a shit MTT player and more than willing to admit it but I never thought I was as bad as to not comprehend the above. So now it's good to get our entire chip stack in the middle because "we are good players and this is "the easiest stage of the tournament to get more chips" (I am assuming this isn't the easiest stage to get more chips because people donk off their entire stacks making erm...winning calls?)

again..it might be a call but I don't see the insta part.

we ARE getting the odds to call this for pure value. We also have the massive added benefit of having a shot at accumulating a stack that will allow us to crush the field.

[JungleCat03]

Convince me I should take a very thin marginal gamble for my stack. And it is thin. If you think not, throw me a likely weighted range where you have 50% equity or so in this hand. That's what you need imo. Because even getting your remaining chips in on an absolute 50/50 is superior value-wise to calling in this spot despite the overlay.

this is plain wrong m8. why is a 50/50 gonna be better than here? Equity is almost identical...

Yes true but with 2 almost identical equity situations, you'd take the lower variance option which a 50 50 would be.



ok Alex.

Answer how bad of a gamble you are willing to take simply to get in a pot for a 50 BB stack...30-70?

Worse? If you have a figure then why?

...obviously a 50BB stack gives you certain things a 25BB stack doesn't. So yes it's fine to factor in some additional EV for the gain you make through other players fearing you, being able to threaten the other big stacks etc, but a 25 BB at this stage enables you to do some pretty funky moves too. Re-stealing, squeezing, simple blind steals are all within the realms of a 25BB stack, so you don't gain massively from calling here. Remember you are still above average here with a 25BB stack so you have most players outchipped and can apply plenty of pressure.

Factor in chip depreciation and any small EV gains you make from the extra utility of your stack may be mitigated / cancelled out completely.

And I think the gains are small. You have to be super bad at misusing a 25BB above average stack and super proficient at using a 50BB to gain massively beyond the actual value of having 2x as many chips in this situation. If you had 15BBs with an average of 18 or something then doubling is very significant and you gain lots in this situation. Here though if you pass you have most players outchipped still, it's not the same situation.

[Royal Flush]

The problem with re-stealing with a 25BB stack is that if you get snapped off you are pretty fcked!

[MANTIS01]

While I recognise it is more favourable to get your chips in as say a 55% favourite rather than the slight underdog, the % chance you will win the pot isn't the only factor to consider. Even if you fold now and get the chance to play as the 55% favourite in the very next hand you will be playing for almost 20% LESS chips. So the stakes have changed dramatically. And if that chance doesn't present itself in the next five hands your stack is going to drop by another 8% and so on. Of course such a chance may not present itself at all.

It's short-handed at the table and the average is like 14bb so there's going to be a lot of pushing pre-flop. Are you going to get chances to re-steal soon and will your move be successful? I don't know. Maybe. But you will have less room for error/variance with the smaller stack of course.

The important thing to recognise is that calling here, even as an underdog, may be your best chance to win the whole tournament. It wont give you the best shot at winning an individual pot, but it may be the call that wins you the event. I read somewhere that if you're not getting your chips in behind you're not getting them in enough and I'm growing to like this.

[doubleup]

I read somewhere that if you're not getting your chips in behind you're not getting them in enough and I'm growing to like this.

There's a big difference going in behind raising than calling.

[boldie]

While I recognise it is more favourable to get your chips in as say a 55% favourite rather than the slight underdog, the % chance you will win the pot isn't the only factor to consider. Even if you fold now and get the chance to play as the 55% favourite in the very next hand you will be playing for almost 20% LESS chips. So the stakes have changed dramatically. And if that chance doesn't present itself in the next five hands your stack is going to drop by another 8% and so on. Of course such a chance may not present itself at all.

It's short-handed at the table and the average is like 14bb so there's going to be a lot of pushing pre-flop. Are you going to get chances to re-steal soon and will your move be successful? I don't know. Maybe. But you will have less room for error/variance with the smaller stack of course.

The important thing to recognise is that calling here, even as an underdog, may be your best chance to win the whole tournament. It wont give you the best shot at winning an individual pot, but it may be the call that wins you the event. I read somewhere that if you're not getting your chips in behind you're not getting them in enough and I'm growing to like this.

Translation; Flushy was right all along.