Understanding Probability (poker game of skill?)

[jakally]

So the next time you see Gus Hansen type players stick it in knowing their only 40%, try hard not to call them a donkey and think back to their 'aim' when making that decision. Some players might consider a 30% chance (pot odds or no pot odds) enough to justify their decision given their view of the situation and under their financial circumstances.

IMO, so much of a successful poker players edge come from creating fold equity situations, that it is impossible to judge their ability just on hands where they get called with a less than even chance of winning.

[stoneii]

In reality, we will either be lucky or unlucky poker players, and there is nothing we can do about it.

Ok, but at what stage in our poker lives will we know if we're going to lucky or unlucky from here on in?

[kinboshi]

If presented with a situation where you're 99% to win £100,000 but 1% to get a bullet in your head my personal 'correct' decision would be to fold

call ftw

Obv level.

[kinboshi]

Snoops wrote an interesting article related to the idea of 'it'll even out over the long term'.  Think it was in Flush magazine.

Basically, he said that if you tend to get your money in ahead, you're not likely to enjoy as many 'outdraws' as the player who is more likely to stick his money in as a dog.

[boldie]

Snoops wrote an interesting article related to the idea of 'it'll even out over the long term'.  Think it was in Flush magazine.

Basically, he said that if you tend to get your money in ahead, you're not likely to enjoy as many 'outdraws' as the player who is more likely to stick his money in as a dog.

a wise man, our Snoops

[kinboshi]

The point being that it won't 'even out over the long term'.

(just in case that was missed)

[gatso]

The point being that it won't 'even out over the long term'.

(just in case that was missed)

exactly the conclusion I came to the other day when thinking about EV graphs. then I realised I was wrong. then I realised I wasn't sure.

so the conclusion is it will level out over the long term but 'even out' is the wrong term. maybe

flipping a coin will even out long term, putting your money in as a 60/40 fav will level out to 60% won, putting it in as a 70/30 dog will level out to a 30% win

[jakally]

In reality, we will either be lucky or unlucky poker players, and there is nothing we can do about it.

Ok, but at what stage in our poker lives will we know if we're going to lucky or unlucky from here on in?

Trying to classify players as lucky or unlucky is too black or white.

Everyone will have periods of good and bad luck - trying to define which category you fall into will depend on the point in time that you try and make the judgement.

[stoneii]

Trying to classify players as lucky or unlucky is too black or white.

Everyone will have periods of good and bad luck - trying to define which category you fall into will depend on the point in time that you try and make the judgement.

Is that not my point just in more words

[jakally]

Trying to classify players as lucky or unlucky is too black or white.

Everyone will have periods of good and bad luck - trying to define which category you fall into will depend on the point in time that you try and make the judgement.

Is that not my point just in more words

In all probability . . . . .. yes!

[bolt pp]

If presented with a situation where you're 99% to win £100,000 but 1% to get a bullet in your head my personal 'correct' decision would be to fold

call ftw

Obv level.

no, because ive come up with a variable.

if i pick the option that kills me then i'll go up to the geezer thats gonna shoot me, knock him out and bowl off with the money.

[kinboshi]

If presented with a situation where you're 99% to win £100,000 but 1% to get a bullet in your head my personal 'correct' decision would be to fold

call ftw

Obv level.

no, because ive come up with a variable.

if i pick the option that kills me then i'll go up to the geezer thats gonna shoot me, knock him out and bowl off with the money.

Ah - I thought you were telling him to call with the bet, rather than you being in the situation.

Obv level.

[Rupert]

i've found the summary for OPs post

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance
the average squared dispersion from the mean of a random event... or luck to some