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What's the best move here?
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Topic: What's the best move here? (Read 4147 times)
Tuffster
Sr. Member
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Posts: 492
What's the best move here?
«
on:
May 29, 2008, 09:02:16 PM »
Final table of the Blonde $5 f/o, 472 runners, 5 remain, blinds 5k/10k
UTG has been very solid, has shown down good hands and hasn't been tricky, raises with both steals and high pp's so v. hard to read, has 160k chips (3rd)
UTG raises to 40k, passes to me in the BB with 210k (2nd).
Holding
What's the best move here? Given his play to this point, I'm finding it very difficult to put him on a range of hands, he's shown a couple of un-called raises (when 6/7 handed) one was QQ, the other 810s, most of the times he's been called or raised he's been able to win either by holding a good hand or out-playing post-flop, so I'm giving him a lot of respect here.
I reckon flat-calling is the worst thing here as I'm OOP on the flop, so it's either a) min raise, meaning he's pot committed to pot it all-in on the flop, b) raise all-in and hope it's a race. c) fold and give away 10k.
I reckon both a and b would result in an all-in pre-flop so might as well push myself.
I folded pre as an UTG raise for 25% of his stack even though only 5-handed implies he's happy to play for all his chips. At best I'm racing, at worst I'm the under-pair.
Should I be looking at this hand as an opportunity to win the tourney as if I take it down I'll have about 375k with the next player on 225k and therefore be in a great position to take it down, or is it an unnecessary gamble?
Yours views on this sort of situation would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers Peeps.
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......Please have correct change.
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
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Posts: 8039
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #1 on:
May 30, 2008, 04:35:05 AM »
looks like ideal stop and go territory to me. flat pre, jam not too terrible boards, like Q73, K92 etc is more optimal than flipping/dogging v a fairly tight range i assume. Risky, but fun
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Royal Flush
Hero Member
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #2 on:
May 30, 2008, 09:03:58 AM »
errrr this is a shove, anything else is just spewing equity
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
boldie
Hero Member
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Posts: 22392
Don't make me mad
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #3 on:
May 30, 2008, 09:33:07 AM »
Quote from: Tuffster on May 29, 2008, 09:02:16 PM
Final table of the Blonde $5 f/o, 472 runners, 5 remain, blinds 5k/10k
UTG has been very solid, has shown down good hands and hasn't been tricky, raises with both steals and high pp's so v. hard to read, has 160k chips (3rd)
UTG raises to 40k, passes to me in the BB with 210k (2nd).
Holding
What's the best move here? Given his play to this point, I'm finding it very difficult to put him on a range of hands, he's shown a couple of un-called raises (when 6/7 handed) one was QQ, the other 810s, most of the times he's been called or raised he's been able to win either by holding a good hand or out-playing post-flop, so I'm giving him a lot of respect here.
I reckon flat-calling is the worst thing here as I'm OOP on the flop, so it's either a) min raise, meaning he's pot committed to pot it all-in on the flop, b) raise all-in and hope it's a race. c) fold and give away 10k.
I reckon both a and b would result in an all-in pre-flop so might as well push myself.
I folded pre as an UTG raise for 25% of his stack even though only 5-handed implies he's happy to play for all his chips. At best I'm racing, at worst I'm the under-pair.
Should I be looking at this hand as an opportunity to win the tourney as if I take it down I'll have about 375k with the next player on 225k and therefore be in a great position to take it down, or is it an unnecessary gamble?
Yours views on this sort of situation would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers Peeps.
I either shove or fold here...most likely shove and find myself cursing as he calls with a marginal hand like KQ off suit and hits
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TheChipPrince
Hero Member
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Posts: 8664
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #4 on:
May 30, 2008, 10:49:53 AM »
Firstly, i like the way youve written the question, explains everything we need to know, and what your thinking about your options...
I dont think we can fold here, not 5 handed... I would only flat call knowing i'm pushing virtually any flop as a deceptive move, but more than likely they all go in pre-flop...
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action man
Hero Member
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Posts: 10650
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #5 on:
May 30, 2008, 12:57:39 PM »
"WHAT IS THE BEST MOVE HERE"
depends really. If you like money you shove. If you have fallen out with your money you flat or fold.
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action man
Hero Member
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Posts: 10650
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #6 on:
May 30, 2008, 01:05:29 PM »
Quote from: Tuffster on May 29, 2008, 09:02:16 PM
Final table of the Blonde $5 f/o, 472 runners, 5 remain, blinds 5k/10k
UTG has been very solid, has shown down good hands and hasn't been tricky, raises with both steals and high pp's so v. hard to read, has 160k chips (3rd)
UTG raises to 40k, passes to me in the BB with 210k (2nd).
Holding
What's the best move here? Given his play to this point, I'm finding it very difficult to put him on a range of hands, he's shown a couple of un-called raises (when 6/7 handed) one was QQ, the other 810s, most of the times he's been called or raised he's been able to win either by holding a good hand or out-playing post-flop, so I'm giving him a lot of respect here.
I reckon flat-calling is the worst thing here as I'm OOP on the flop, so it's either a) min raise, meaning he's pot committed to pot it all-in on the flop, b) raise all-in and hope it's a race. c) fold and give away 10k.
I reckon both a and b would result in an all-in pre-flop so might as well push myself.
I folded pre as an UTG raise for 25% of his stack even though only 5-handed implies he's happy to play for all his chips.
At best I'm racing, at worst I'm the under-pair.
Should I be looking at this hand as an opportunity to win the tourney as if I take it down I'll have about 375k with the next player on 225k and therefore be in a great position to take it down, or is it an unnecessary gamble?
Yours views on this sort of situation would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers Peeps.
why do players always have this mentality? This sort of paranoia makes mtt players on a whole really exploitable. You say he say shown 8Ts after him raising pre, therefore his range is probably almost any2 here. Your 88 plays very well against that range.
Also on ipoker without running antes people are more willing to raise/fold with less than 15bb. even more so in $5 mtt. Snap shove FTMFW
«
Last Edit: May 30, 2008, 01:07:39 PM by action man
»
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booder
Hero Member
Online
Posts: 12822
Lazy , Hazy days
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #7 on:
May 30, 2008, 01:07:55 PM »
Quote from: action man on May 30, 2008, 12:57:39 PM
"WHAT IS THE BEST MOVE HERE"
depends really. If you like money you shove. If you have fallen out with your money you flat or fold.
FIGJAM
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Quote from: action man
im not speculating, either, but id have been pretty peeved if i missed the thread and i ended up getting clipped, kindly accepting a lift home.
In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.
Martin Luther King Jr
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
Hero Member
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Posts: 8039
rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #8 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:13:29 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 30, 2008, 09:03:58 AM
errrr this is a shove, anything else is just spewing equity
why shove>sng w this stack. Assuming hero wont bottle it. zero FE pre, some post some of the time. We obv arent folding, but v racing ranges i think my play beats yours.
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Tuffster
Sr. Member
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Posts: 492
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #9 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:17:34 PM »
Thanks for the comments guys, but I'm finding it hard to understand why the view is that the shove is so ++++EV as everyone seems to indicate.
Folding, I lose 5% of my stack, which can easily be regained with a steal myself. Shoving, I'm risking (basically) my entire tournament on a coin-flip (at best). I'm getting 50/50 on my money, so I want to be at least 50/50 to win in order to take this bet. Surely that makes sense in odds terms.
If I'm either, a) Racing, I'm marginally ahead so odds wise it's a good call or; b) 7/1 underdog which odds wise is a very bad thing.
Some of the phrases used such as "spewing equity" and "depends really. If you like money you shove. If you have fallen out with your money you flat or fold" seem to indicate that a shove here is the best move over the course of time, however, given the stats, I can't see how this is ++++EV. I can't see it being more than 52/48 in my favour.
I fully understand that the guy is playing A2C and I'm pretty sure I'm ahead, but I know that with 25% of his stack in, I have no fold equity. I would much rather be pushing and stealing than calling and gambling.
My point is why risk everything calling-off in a marginal situation when given the stack sizes (av 20BB) there is still room for some play here. What is so wrong in looking for a 60/40 situation to shove, surely this will end up in a higher ROI over the course?
Cheers guys.
As many people have said before, Poker is a game of decisions and pushing people to make bad decisions. I would much rather be putting those decisions on other people by pushing myself (with fold equity) than calling off and just hoping the Gods will be good to me.
Logged
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......Please have correct change.
Royal Flush
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22690
Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #10 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:28:59 PM »
Quote from: Tuffster on May 30, 2008, 03:17:34 PM
Thanks for the comments guys, but I'm finding it hard to understand why the view is that the shove is so ++++EV as everyone seems to indicate.
Folding, I lose 5% of my stack, which can easily be regained with a steal myself. Shoving, I'm risking (basically) my entire tournament on a coin-flip (at best). I'm getting 50/50 on my money, so I want to be at least 50/50 to win in order to take this bet. Surely that makes sense in odds terms.
If I'm either, a) Racing, I'm marginally ahead so odds wise it's a good call or; b) 7/1 underdog which odds wise is a very bad thing.
Some of the phrases used such as "spewing equity" and "depends really. If you like money you shove. If you have fallen out with your money you flat or fold" seem to indicate that a shove here is the best move over the course of time, however, given the stats, I can't see how this is ++++EV. I can't see it being more than 52/48 in my favour.
I fully understand that the guy is playing A2C and I'm pretty sure I'm ahead, but I know that with 25% of his stack in, I have no fold equity. I would much rather be pushing and stealing than calling and gambling.
My point is why risk everything calling-off in a marginal situation when given the stack sizes (av 20BB) there is still room for some play here. What is so wrong in looking for a 60/40 situation to shove, surely this will end up in a higher ROI over the course?
Cheers guys.
As many people have said before, Poker is a game of decisions and pushing people to make bad decisions. I would much rather be putting those decisions on other people by pushing myself (with fold equity) than calling off and just hoping the Gods will be good to me.
This post just put me on uber tilt.
Am going to wait at least 1hr before replying to avoid a forum ban.
Logged
[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
TheChipPrince
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8664
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #11 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:35:26 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 30, 2008, 03:28:59 PM
This post just put me on uber tilt.
Am going to wait at least 1hr before replying to avoid a forum ban.
lol, quality
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The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
RIP- TheChipPrince - $17,165
Tuffster
Sr. Member
Offline
Posts: 492
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #12 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:35:45 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 30, 2008, 03:28:59 PM
This post just put me on uber tilt.
Am going to wait at least 1hr before replying to avoid a forum ban.
I'm sorry if I've said something you that you have found offensive here. I'm still a novice at this game and am trying to learn.
So I'm sorry if what I've said is a load of ill-conceived tripe, but the question I asked is still a valid one. If I am wrong, can someone tell me why so that I can learn.
I'm part of Blonde because I enjoy the jovial banter and the willingness of (much) better players to help teach newbies and novices like myself. If I've got this idea wrong then I'll gladly feck off and not come back.
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......Please have correct change.
Suited_Jock
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 2203
i-reraise.blogspot.com
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #13 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:35:56 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 30, 2008, 03:28:59 PM
Quote from: Tuffster on May 30, 2008, 03:17:34 PM
Thanks for the comments guys, but I'm finding it hard to understand why the view is that the shove is so ++++EV as everyone seems to indicate.
Folding, I lose 5% of my stack, which can easily be regained with a steal myself. Shoving, I'm risking (basically) my entire tournament on a coin-flip (at best). I'm getting 50/50 on my money, so I want to be at least 50/50 to win in order to take this bet. Surely that makes sense in odds terms.
If I'm either, a) Racing, I'm marginally ahead so odds wise it's a good call or; b) 7/1 underdog which odds wise is a very bad thing.
Some of the phrases used such as "spewing equity" and "depends really. If you like money you shove. If you have fallen out with your money you flat or fold" seem to indicate that a shove here is the best move over the course of time, however, given the stats, I can't see how this is ++++EV. I can't see it being more than 52/48 in my favour.
I fully understand that the guy is playing A2C and I'm pretty sure I'm ahead, but I know that with 25% of his stack in, I have no fold equity. I would much rather be pushing and stealing than calling and gambling.
My point is why risk everything calling-off in a marginal situation when given the stack sizes (av 20BB) there is still room for some play here. What is so wrong in looking for a 60/40 situation to shove, surely this will end up in a higher ROI over the course?
Cheers guys.
As many people have said before, Poker is a game of decisions and pushing people to make bad decisions. I would much rather be putting those decisions on other people by pushing myself (with fold equity) than calling off and just hoping the Gods will be good to me.
This post just put me on uber tilt.
Am going to wait at least 1hr before replying to avoid a forum ban.
Logged
boldie
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22392
Don't make me mad
Re: What's the best move here?
«
Reply #14 on:
May 30, 2008, 03:42:38 PM »
Quote from: TheChipPrince on May 30, 2008, 03:35:26 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on May 30, 2008, 03:28:59 PM
This post just put me on uber tilt.
Am going to wait at least 1hr before replying to avoid a forum ban.
lol, quality
Logged
Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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