wp maria congrates! gl in the next 3-2-1!
this is my personal indicator when i'm doing a deal...
since maria believes she is a superior player, even with the slightly lower amount of chips, chances of winning is at least average....
maria 28% of chips
simon 35% of chips
ali 37% of chips
so assuming with an edge, maria comes 1st 33%, 2nd 33% and 3rd 33%
EV=(33% of £12,810 + 33% of £7,300 + 33% of £4,800)
= £8303
so from this overly simplified calculation, ali got a great deal, simon about right and maria is below expected value
ali outchips maria by about 2-1 (290k more chips) diff in cash is £2565
ali outchips simon by 80k diff in cash is £818
there is no point having more than 900k chips as chip count does not let you cash in more than 1st prize! not that the other players will let you do a deal whereby you get close to 1st prize as you will not win 1st 100% of the time! so no way will you get more than £10,000 doing a deal and that is with 50% of chips in play! so about 45% of the chips in play is the optimal amount which when you do a chip count deal gives you alot more than your expected value!!!
This chip count deal allowed by DTD is flawed in this way as it favours the big stack and over-fuks the short stacks!
so with this structure...i think it calls for ultra aggression! blinds are big...swings are big...anything can happen...50% of chips is quite vulnerable...but pays alot more than the edge you get from a 50% chips in play stack...time to cash in! £££ if you have 75% of chips in play and some muppets agree to do a deal...bingo! guarantees a 1st place finish!!
