WSOP Bubble

[Rupert]

My goal isn't to "play to win" or "play to cash", it's to maximize my $ equity in every spot available, this means going all in in both these spots.  You're probably giving up like $1k in equity not shipping in that AK and the 99 is probably similar but a bit smaller.  It means you're basically paying the other people in the tournament money when you fold these hands because the equity isn't coming to you instead.

Folding lowers variance, it's like insurance.  Always -EV but you'll want to lower variance if it's a large proportion of your bankroll (e.g. house insurance, tournament which is big to you etc)

[DungBeetle]

"Yeah seriously.  Save your $5k for a smaller tournament if you're considering folding these"

That's a pretty unhelpful comment and totally unconstructive.  I probably won't post on these boards again as it's just not worth the effort with some of the people on here.

I was merely trying to get a discussion on whether the payout structure of a tournament should dictate how you play the bubble.  Never mind.    

[Rupert]

hehe sorry don't mind me i'm socially inept.  Just saying from a profitability point of view these are both pretty clear shoves.  It wouldn't be too hard to model the maths behind it but it's a lot of effort to prove a known result.

[Longy]

Shovel both, im happier about open shoving the 99 than 3bet shoving the ak.

[gatso]

there are 2 ways to approach this

1) if you're really that bothered about just cashing then you really should just be sat at the bar drinking beer right now. it's h4h so no need to slow up play to burst the bubble. put you feet up, get a corona and watch everyone else. if there are a number of microstacks then your probs better than 80% to cash right now so you should be passing atc anyway, might as well do it from a nice seat at the bar.

2) ship your monies in and try and win the thing.

1 could be correct in a one off instance

[DungBeetle]

I have to say I'm pretty surprised that not one person has mentioned the payout structure of the tournament, and simply dismisses anyone who decides to fold as trying to fold into the money and being some kind of nonce.

Where do you draw the line on structure?  How about

1st = 6 million
2nd-72nd = 9k

Surely with the above AK is a fold no?

[Rupert]

Well the 99 would be clear shoves in both.  The AK is still a clear shove in both but you could definately fold a larger range in the satellite structure.

[Longy]

I have to say I'm pretty surprised that not one person has mentioned the payout structure of the tournament, and simply dismisses anyone who decides to fold as trying to fold into the money and being some kind of nonce.

Where do you draw the line on structure?  How about

1st = 6 million
2nd-72nd = 9k

Surely with the above AK is a fold no?

This is a wsop event therefore will have a relative standard mtt payout structure. Neither is close enough for the payout structure to make a difference. I would shove both of these on a sng bubble, which has lot less linear payout structure than any mtt.

The only reason you get people saying fold is a mixture of 2 things:

1) 9K is alot of money to them and they are not prepared to risk bubbling.

2) They don't the mathematics behind equity decisions on the bubble.

Both of the above are not good poker imo.

[Rupert]

£6M is probably a bad example fwiw, it makes the $9k completely trivial since your stack is worth like well over $100k so taking a coinflip with overlay or whatever is sooooo huge in $ equity

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: DungBeetle

I was merely trying to get a discussion on whether the payout structure of a tournament should dictate how you play the bubble.

The important thing to consider is that most of the players still left in the tournament will be having bubble considerations that will lead them to make poor decisions and play badly. This means that you have an excellent opportunity to play well. In the A-K example it is true that the big stack has enough chips to call and can live with a loss. These considerations could very well lead him to blunder by calling.

I can't live with the mentality that the big stack might make a mistake so I better fold.

It is more scary to make your plays when you are short. It is for everyone. But your edge comes from the ability to make the right play anyway. Each play like this builds your overall poker mentality. If we fold here what do we do next time we are in a similar position? Fold again to limp into the money? Suddenly you will find you are a weak uncompetetive player.

Folding doesn't make you a nonce by the way. Biting the bullet and shoving gives you the edge. Not just here I might add but generally when playing poker.

[DungBeetle]

"I would shove both of these on a sng bubble, which has lot less linear payout structure than any mtt."

SNG bubble would be 4 handed - having 99 in that scenario is a lot more appealing than UTG on a 9 handed table surely.  Also the difference between moving up just 3 spots and winning is huge.  In WSOP, places 50-70 pay virtually the same.

[Longy]

"I would shove both of these on a sng bubble, which has lot less linear payout structure than any mtt."

SNG bubble would be 4 handed - having 99 in that scenario is a lot more appealing than UTG on a 9 handed table surely.  Also the difference between moving up just 3 spots and winning is huge.  In WSOP, places 50-70 pay virtually the same.

True though with shoving positionally the maths actually doesn't change massively from co to utg on a 9 handed table. Not enough in my experience to make folding 99 +ev.

[Rupert]

Check out the book "Kill Everyone".  It goes into great detail about bubble factors and why calling off AK on the bubble of a SNG is so so so much closer than a WSOP tournament (it's usually still a clear call though, there are scenarios where you can fold AK and even AA!).  It isn't just relative hand value we are worried about.  There are three things you work out when calculating something like this.

$ Equity if call and win
$ Equity if call and lose
$ Equity if fold

If the weighted values of equity if call and win and equity if call and lose are greater than our equity if we fold, then we should call.  In SNGs you get times where you are by and large guarenteed a cash place if you fold.  Although less obvious in a tournament you also get situations like this (this might even be one) but you also have far more potential to make more $ further down the line.  That is why in this situation your $EV_call is likely to far exceed your $EV_fold.  In a SNG your $EV of calling and winning is very much limited since the value of chips is diminishing as your stack becomes a larger proportion of chips in play.

[snoopy1239]

Shove em both, unless you're homeless.

[AlexMartin]

yeah i was well wrong yo. they are both shoves with 5k in the middle.