WSOP Bubble

[DungBeetle]

Had some differing opinions on the below scenarios from the guys I play with live.  Thought I'd get some more opinions - I won't tell you what I did as I don't want to cloud your opinions:


Scenario:  5k WSOP event - 73 players remain, 72 get paid.  $5k entry and 72nd place pays in the region of $9k.  Prizes do not go up steeply - 40th spot pays about $13k and 30th pays about $22k.

Your image is fairly tight - you have restolen twice when there were about 90 players remaining to keep head above water.  Blinds are 800/1600 with a running ante of 300, so about 5k per round.  Your stack is about 21k - you are one of the table shorties, but there are a number of micro stacks on other tables with stacks between 5k and 10k.  Two of the big stacks on your table are playing the bubble really well - they are putting the medium stacks to decisions for all their chips.

The 2 scenarios I encountered during the 90 minute (!) hand for hand are:

1) Big stack (100k+) makes it 6k UTG.  You have  on the button.  Action?
2) You get  UTG - Action?

[Sunday8pm]

Fold Fold. Im a ladderer though.

[boldie]

AK push, 99 I fold.

[AlexMartin]

ur playing a 5k event. did you satellite in and need the money or are you rolled for 5k events (realise this is unlikely). Whatever, im deffo jamming the AK, 99 is tough, prolly a fold.

[TheChipPrince]

ur playing a 5k event. did you satellite in and need the money or are you rolled for 5k events (realise this is unlikely). Whatever, im deffo jamming the AK, 99 is tough, prolly a fold.

This is so the move, but is also so easier said than done i've you've won a SAT in and 9k means a lot...

[booder]

AK push, 99 I fold.

damn,i agree with baldie

[DungBeetle]

I bought in direct, but a sensible bankroll manager would say I am not correctly rolled for it, so missing out on the 9k will impact my ability to play other big tournaments later in the year.

[Royal Flush]

Are these replies levels?

Shove Shove and they aren't even close.

[MANTIS01]

A-K deffo push. Big stack playing the bubble well gives this push added merit.

I bought in direct, but a sensible bankroll manager would say I am not correctly rolled for it, so missing out on the 9k will impact my ability to play other big tournaments later in the year.

Yes but on the flip side folding the A-K will leave you with a really nasty feeling that will haunt you forever.

[DungBeetle]

The range for the big stack to call is pretty wide here if you shove the AK - he's getting a pretty good price and can comfortably live with losing the hand?  You happy to spin it up AK v J9 with the shallow payout structure?

Personally I think shoving the unopened pots with 99 is a better move than shoving AK and getting (probably) called.  

[boldie]

Are these replies levels?

Shove Shove and they aren't even close.

You forget that I'm very tight though.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: DungBeetle

The range for the big stack to call is pretty wide

This can't really be seen as a bad thing. If you are a poker player you will need to push here. UTG can call with any Ace and we cannot not want this. Waiting to die is a wretched feeling to be avoided at all costs. Far worse than the pain of bubbling imo.

[DungBeetle]

I agree - if you are playing for 1st it's a shove every time, but my view was that the difference between finishing 72nd was virtually the same as finishing 40th, so I'd rather gamble with a 40% shot when I was on a freeroll (and maybe pick up a better spot), than a 70% shot (if he has a smaller ace) or 50% shot (when he has a small pair) when it was going to cost me 9k to do it.  Maybe it's the wrong way to think about it - I dunno.  I passed both the hands here, and also JJ and TT to heavy action pre-flop round about the same period.

It's the first time I've been around the bubble in a major tournament so perhaps my inexperience showed - or maybe I'm just a rock

[LeKnave]

I agree - if you are playing for 1st it's a shove every time

[  ] would play the torn with a priority being cashing>winning.

shove, shove.

[Rupert]

Are these replies levels?

Shove Shove and they aren't even close.

Yeah seriously.  Save your $5k for a smaller tournament if you're considering folding these