2/4 cash game

[Robbo63]

The villain I felt was playing a bit loose but didn’t have enough hands to get a true judgement at the time. When he had finished the session still only had 111 hands with stats of 31/20/3.  I was the SB and we were playing four handed.

GAME #1148593186: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2008-09-04 01:32:29
Table Lucerne (No DP)
Seat 5: elglido ($695.90 in chips)
Seat 6: Preben61 ($428.00 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: HERO ($1,054.90 in chips)
Seat 10: carnage888 ($392.00 in chips)
HERO: Post SB $2.00
carnage888: Post BB $4.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [  ]
elglido: Raise (NF) $14.00
Preben61: Fold
HERO: Raise (NF) $44.00
carnage888: Fold
elglido: Call $30.00
*** FLOP *** [     ]
HERO: Bet $70.00
elglido: Raise (NF) $177.00
HERO: Call $107.00
*** TURN *** [ ]
HERO: Check
elglido: Bet $474.90 allin

What would you do after being raised on the flop? And as played how do you respond to the allin?

[boldie]

I call here....no reason to believe he has the flush, his raise on the flop doesn't make a lot of sense if he does..if he has a lower set (and now FH) GL to him..he gets paid.

Your check on the turn induces the overbet...I strongly suspect a player with a FH wouldn't do that...a low flush might be running scared and do it but combined with the pre-flop and flop betting I doubt it.

[MC]

I think you're only losing to a flush, because a full house has no need to shove here...

I don't think an ace high flush would raise the flop...but a lower flush might. The all-in makes sense when the board pairs cos a lot of bad cards on the river: hearts, Q's, 5's..

But based on preflop I think you'd have to say he can only really have JTh, if he's loose maybe 9Th, 89h

The problem with this evaluation is though, what else can he have that does this? Maybe AQ/AK with Ah? KJ? JToff with ?

It's toughie, based on evaluation I think I'm calling though

[Potripper]

Excellent check on Turn. No way he has a full house. Check shows fear of trips minimum, his bet is a **** off bet, which you will not get from a flush here most of the time. He has a flush draw with maybe a pair, and reraised on the flop to set this move up. On the flop I was thinking baby flush, but your defensive check got you some nice info throwing his flush out. Call is profitable enough of the time. And you still have outs...
Not unreasonable to put him on a weaker K. A weak K suddenly becomes 'the best hand' when it becomes trips, cuz no way the OtherGuy has that fourth card, right? And also your flat call of the flop reraise looked weak/unkingly to him maybe.

[AlexMartin]

well played, now call yo.

[DaveShoelace]

The odds of someone flopping a flush are uber low (130 to 1? Im not sure, its low), so dont worry about that because the few times you do run into one are massivley outweighed by the times you dont.

Like the man says, if he has a boat good luck to him.

Its not very profitable to make hero folds here basically.

I agree with potripper, pair and a draw most likely. Plus you can always suck out on the river if you are beat.

[totalise]

Just to play devils advocate, I dont know if I like the check on the turn here in todays environment..... because after pre/flop action, elglido if he has a brain should recognise that the King is going to be a pretty good card for our range, so i think it makes it less likely he barrels the turn with his semibluffs, and exponentially more likely hes going to fire the turn with hands we have beat, so in a sense we allow ourselves to get kinda freerolled on the equity that goes in the pot on the turn.

put another way, if you are elglido, what range are you putting us on after the action on the flop/turn, and how likely is it that the King is a card that scares our range?

Just something to consider

[bolt pp]

call

[Charlie44]

Apologies if your'e think I'm talking rubbish but her goes anyway. (Im only new on site have patience with me)

I think the most likely hand is a flush based on betting pattern. He raise UTG and calls with odds of 2-1 pre flop. He raises on flop but only 107 on 339 pot- hardly intended to get you you of pot. By turn he knows you've got something big and you've quite likely hit trips. He wants you to think he's stealing with A hearts and perhaps Q - so it's a pot bet.

The other likely candidates to me are A hearts and K,Q,J or T off. But wouldn't he have bet bigger on turn if he wanted you off it ?

Also KQ feasible but again probably bigger raise on flop.

You are getting 2-1 to call. I thinks its a close call and depends on his propensity to semi bluff. I think I would tend to fold here unless history of bluffs.

[Royal Flush]

The odds of someone flopping a flush are uber low (130 to 1? Im not sure, its low),

They increase slightly when the flop is all of 1 suit...

[bolt pp]

The odds of someone flopping a flush are uber low (130 to 1? Im not sure, its low),

They increase slightly when the flop is all of 1 suit...

I think it's about 120-1 or something like that.

though i do agree that it's more likely your opponents flopped a flush if the flop is all of one suit.

[TightEnd]

He has KQ, Overbets with nut hands when he thinks you might not be able to pass

only needs a call once every few times he does it to show a net profit

[AlexMartin]

I dunno, ppl do crazy things slightly deep The odds of him spazzing worse (KJ)/bluffing w nfd plus your sexy live redraw make this a call imo. He has QQ or you have him.

[boldie]

The odds of someone flopping a flush are uber low (130 to 1? Im not sure, its low),

They increase slightly when the flop is all of 1 suit...

classic.

[Potripper]

Chances of flopping a flush are so low that when you finally do you think omg I flopped a flush. Must min reraise here to telegraph it.
It's possible that he flopped a flush/2 pair/set  here and jammed the turn to look stealy/weak. The only reason such a move would ever ever work is if some/most of the time such an action is justifiably seen by your average player to actually be weak.
The long term EV in my opinion comes from player observation here, people tend not to deviate that much from their core MO here. If I fill up on the turn here I almost cannot help myself slowing down the action. A check to me may mean the other guy is half giving up on his flush draw. Some people still on the draw cannot help themselves from betting quickly. Commonly someone who fills up on the turn here just has to stop that little bit longer to actually figure: I probably have the nuts, I should bet again to look stealy.
But anyway here you have little history on the guy so it may just be one of those things. Coolish deck kinda.