post from another forum;
By just browsing the tables from the past 5 or 6 seasons, it seems that roughly 60 points is the target if you want to get 7th, which I think is a realistic, if slightly ambitious, target for us.
I think we'll be competing with teams like Everton, Sunderland and Villa, so I'll be tracking their results here as well.
Anyway, what I'm going to track is basically the actual points a team gets vs the expected points the team is supposed to get. I think the Premiership table at certain points of the season doesn't tell the full picture. Many times, teams that have good or bad starts only do so because the quality of the opposition, and it's not a true reflection of the quality of the team, so if you know how you're performing against how you're supposed to perform, then it can be comforting (or not). Chelsea, for example, started last season very well because they faced quite a lot of s*** teams.
Anyway, to get 58 points in a season - why 58? because the formula works better - you can lose all your matches against the top 6 away from home and draw against them at home. That gives you 6 expected points from 12 matches.
Then against everyone else, you're expected to win all your home games and draw all your away games, which is (13x3 + 13x1) = 52.
52 + 6 = 58. If any of Villa, Everton, Sunderland or us gets 58 points, I think that it'd be good enough for 7th place.
So, so far, we got one point against Arsenal, which was expected. Villa got a point away at Fulham, which was expected, Everton haven't played, while Sunderland actually got a point away at Liverpool, which is one more than was expected for them. Bolton won away from home, so they're at +2, Stoke got a point at home against a top 6 team so they're at 0.
Season: Up to Gameweek 10
Newcastle (+6)
Stoke (-1)
Everton (-3)
West Brom (-4)
Sunderland, Bolton (-6)
Villa (-7)
Fulham (-8)
August results - GW 1 to 3
Newcastle, Stoke (+2)
Bolton (+1)
Everton (-1)
Sunderland, Villa (-2)
Fulham, West Brom (-4)
Actual Table after August
Newcastle (7)
Stoke, Villa (5)
Bolton, Everton (3)
Sunderland (2)
Fulham (1)
West Brom (0)
Even though West Brom have zero points so far, they are actually all right because of the tough set of fixtures that they've had - edit, actually they've had a real s*** run to start the season, they're already -4 behind the target. We're top of this little table so far, and doing better than we're expected to do. And although Bolton have only three points, they're still only one behind what they're expected to do, so they have some easy fixtures to come. It's still early doors so neither table is settled, but it gives a good indicator of the difficulty of the early fixtures so far, with Fulham having a completely miserable start to the season.
September results - GW 4 to 6
Stoke (+1)
Newcastle (0)
West Brom (-1)
Everton, Villa, Sunderland, Fulham (-2)
Bolton (-4)
Actual table after September
Newcastle (12)
Stoke (9)
Villa (
Everton (7)
Sunderland (5)
West Brom, Fulham (4)
Bolton (3)
We did well in September. We held our own, got the points that we were supposed to get and won the match that we needed to win, so we're still +2 in the table. Stoke had another good month, playing a few tough fixtures and getting one more point than expected. Even though they're 3 behind us in the actual table, they will have a bunch of easier fixtures. Comparing us and Everton is actually pretty interesting because they're actually 5 behind us in the actual table and in the expected table. At this point, both teams were expected to get 10 points, but Everton have only 7 while we have 12. So our 'ead over them is a strong lead which hasn't been boosted by easy fixtures. Looking ahead to GW 11, they're expected to get 1 point at home to Liverpool while we're expected to get 1 point away to Wolves. Both relatively difficult fixtures, but hopefully we come out with two more points from this weekend. Bolton had a miserable month but they've had many difficult fixtures so they will have the opportunity to make up the points in the actual table. They are interestingly tied with Everton in the expected table, which shows how tough their opening fixtures have been, although September was brutal for them. Fulham and West Brom have both had horrible starts, backed up by the actual table and the expected table.
October results - GW 7 to 10
Newcastle (+4)
West Brom (+1)
Everton (0)
Sunderland, Fulham (-2)
Bolton (-3)
Villa (-3)
Stoke (-4)
Actual table after October results
Newcastle (22)
Villa, Stoke (12)
West Brom (11)
Everton, Fulham, Sunderland (10)
Bolton (6)
It was a brilliant month for us. +4 is amazing, with the two away wins doing the job for us. We're flying high in this projected table and in the actual table as well. There's not much to say about us, really. Villa continue to drop easy points and now their position in the actual table is starting to reflect the amount of points that they've dropped so far. They also have a lot of difficult fixtures coming up so I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up near 15th by the halfway stage of the season. Most of the other teams did ok this month, and of course the fact that most teams dropped behind the target isn't a surprise since it's expected that only one team will come near 58 points.
Looking ahead, November is actually a pretty chilled month for us because we aren't expected to pick up that many points, but the Everton match is actually crucial because a loss will mean a 5 point swing; -3 for us, +2 for them, so hopefully we can win and have a lead of 10 points in the expected table, and 15 points in the real table.
I think it's also pretty noteworthy that we are +6 overall if we're targeting 7th, but we're +2 if we're targeting 4th (70 points - win all your home games, draw away against everyone but the top 6), and interestingly Liverpool are at 0 if they're targeting 4th.
It's just something that I don't think many expected before the start of the season.
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